Ladakh Flash Point

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AndrewS

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I think the Congress party wants to play the victim whereas the BJP, which wishes for deescalate on, wants to play this off as a tremendous win. Once again, party politics comes first.

Well, Congress wants to show that the BJP are incompetent, which is natural.

Its worth remembering that when the BJP came to power in 2014, they promised to publish the Brooks-Henderson report on the 1962 war.
But this never happened, because it would tear away the media narrative than India was the victim, because the balance of blame and incompetence lay with India.

It's easier for the Hindu nationalist BJP to cast India as the victim of an unprovoked attack, rather tell the Indian public that India was responsibile for starting the 1962 war and then losing.

This is what China has to work with inside India.

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1962 references below from the Indian Newspapers of Record below


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AndrewS

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India is in a dire situation with covid19 (high infection, high unemployment, gov lacking ability to handle the situation). Trump/Us is also likely to suspend h1b program while us unemployment is high which will further cause issue with their IT back process business. That along with chinese factories are likely under thread of being targeted to be moved back to the usa. They need to stroke nationalism to divert the attention of the masses.

Well, it's clear the governments in both India and China didn't expect a lethal incident to happen, but it has happened.

In China, the media barely reports on what happened.
In India, the media is even more irrational and emotional than usual.

So the Modi-BJP government wants to look strong and competent, particularly since India is suffering economically, but that is true of every government in the world.

Plus the BJP is very much a Hindu supremacist political party, so nationalist impulses come easily.

Overall, I think China should support Modi in crafting a public narrative than India has successfully defended Indian territory.
There's no advantage in China further humiliating the Indian government.
And this will reduce anti-China sentiment that the Indian public feels.

We've seen that the BJP/RSS political machine is very adept at manipulating the masses with grassroots propaganda, so I think Modi will get away with this narrative. Remember that 38% of Indian children under 5 years old are stunted from malnutrition due to poverty, so you get an idea of how easily the electorate can be led.

Going forward, India is going to be far more wary/hostile to China, and I don't see any way to change this.
But China does still have to have enough sticks and carrots to keep India non-aligned,
 

jfy1155

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well, it's clear the governments in both India and China didn't expect a lethal incident to happen, but it has happened.

In China, the media barely reports on what happened.
In India, the media is even more irrational and emotional than usual.

So the Modi-BJP government wants to look strong and competent, particularly since India is suffering economically, but that is true of every government in the world.

Plus the BJP is very much a Hindu supremacist political party, so nationalist impulses come easily.

Overall, I think China should support Modi in crafting a public narrative than India has successfully defended Indian territory.
There's no advantage in China further humiliating the Indian government.
And this will reduce anti-China sentiment that the Indian public feels.

We've seen that the BJP/RSS political machine is very adept at manipulating the masses with grassroots propaganda, so I think Modi will get away with this narrative. Remember that 38% of Indian children under 5 years old are stunted from malnutrition due to poverty, so you get an idea of how easily the electorate can be led.

Going forward, India is going to be far more wary/hostile to China, and I don't see any way to change this.
But China does still have to have enough sticks and carrots to keep India non-aligned,

I see 3 options for Modi:

1. Evict the Chinese soldiers out
2. Accept the current LAC status quo
3. Negotiate for something that China will pull back
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I see 3 options for Modi:

1. Evict the Chinese soldiers out
2. Accept the current LAC status quo
3. Negotiate for something that China will pull back

I think Option 3 is likely, based on the current situation and past form.

It's not like China and India deliberately wanted an incident to take place.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
I think Option 3 is likely, based on the current situation and past form.

It's not like China and India deliberately wanted an incident to take place.


Well someone wanted it to take place. US benefits most from a China-India conflict.
 

muddie

Junior Member
Overall, I think China should support Modi in crafting a public narrative than India has successfully defended Indian territory.
There's no advantage in China further humiliating the Indian government.
And this will reduce anti-China sentiment that the Indian public feels.

This is what China did right after the incident occurred and tried to help Modi save face. If China really wanted to humiliate India, China can run endless newsreels of captured Indian soldiers, interviews with PLA soldiers, post pictures, etc.

There is no benefit for China in putting Modi in a tough place politically. Any type of Sino-Indian conflict hurts both parties' interest, hurts Russian interests, and only really benefits the U.S. It's literally a loss-loss for everyone but the U.S. I think both countries see that hence the quick deescalation.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
There is 3 billion people between China and India, and a two dozen dead over frigid uninhabitable frontierland is not going to derail the broader strategic relationship.

I'm not very worried that India will ally with US against China, precisely because Indian memory of Anglo-Saxons pitting Indian princely states against each other in a divide-and-conquer fashion to eventually create British Raj over Indian subcontinent. Indians won't be so easily used as frontline guinea pigs against China, and the current disputed frontier is a legacy of British imperialism in Asia. There is no inherent animosity between India and China except left due to British colonial legacy.
 

discspinner

Junior Member
Registered Member
If there was any strategic rationale on China's part, I think the best explanation is that these actions are designed to bring India to the negotiating table again in restarting the process of officially demarcating the border. China wants to have clearly defined borders with all of its neighbors, and concentrate its efforts in expanding its influence globally. Unfortunately, it seems that successive Indian governments have felt that any border treaty with China would not be politically tenable, for unclear rational reasons. Then again, rational decision making may not be the best description of what passes for strategic discourse over the himalayas.
 
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