Ladakh Flash Point

I think China realistically now need to assume an Indian attack on the western boarder in the event of any sort of major military conflict occurring in the east or south.

India is an overtly hostile power who simply lack the means and competence to actually do China much harm on its own. Which is why it will almost certainly piggy back on any other major power’s conflict with China to try to kick China while it is down.

I think the PLA’s answer is at the first instance strategic deterrence, with demonstrations of PLA superiority.

But in the event of war with another major power in the east, I think China will priorities its forces to the east/south, and use its strategic depth, superior infrastructure and Indian ego to suck the Indians deep into the wilderness of western China.

Chinese forces can easily outmanoeuvre invading Indian forces and draw them in by using Chinese infrastructure to rapidly redeploy from the boarder regions to deny them the initial advantage they might have in the air.

Indian ego would have them push deeper and deeper, celebrating all the time and vastly inflating their exceptions from their invasion.

This buys the PLA time to win the war in the east/south, and then it can turn its full attention towards India.

The narrow Himalayan passes can be easily closed off with long range strikes, cutting off supplies, reinforcements and retreat. Allowing the PLA to totally destroy the Indian army on Chinese soil. At which point China can decide if it wants to call it quits or push right back into India now that its best fighting forces are destroyed.

plawolf said:

I think China realistically now need to assume an Indian attack on the western boarder in the event of any sort of major military conflict occurring in the east or south.

India is an overtly hostile power who simply lack the means and competence to actually do China much harm on its own. Which is why it will almost certainly piggy back on any other major power’s conflict with China to try to kick China while it is down.

I think the PLA’s answer is at the first instance strategic deterrence, with demonstrations of PLA superiority.

But in the event of war with another major power in the east, I think China will priorities its forces to the east/south, and use its strategic depth, superior infrastructure and Indian ego to suck the Indians deep into the wilderness of western China.

Chinese forces can easily outmanoeuvre invading Indian forces and draw them in by using Chinese infrastructure to rapidly redeploy from the boarder regions to deny them the initial advantage they might have in the air.

Indian ego would have them push deeper and deeper, celebrating all the time and vastly inflating their exceptions from their invasion.

This buys the PLA time to win the war in the east/south, and then it can turn its full attention towards India.

The narrow Himalayan passes can be easily closed off with long range strikes, cutting off supplies, reinforcements and retreat. Allowing the PLA to totally destroy the Indian army on Chinese soil. At which point China can decide if it wants to call it quits or push right back into India now that its best fighting forces are destroyed.

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Using strategic depth to trap Indian army formations is indeed a viable strategy. Especially if the situation is dire enough with China engaging in a multifront war. I can see that happening if US and friends start a sudden war with China in the immediate future. It is a tried and true strategy that works miracles on fascist countries in the past like Japan and Germany. With India being the 2020s biggest fascist state, and perhaps the most idiotic fascist state in human history. This strategy can more or less guarantee military devastation against them. The legendary Indian ego will surely push their forces deeper and deeper into China with assured recklessness. The prize is encirclement and destruction of Indian army formations by the PLA not unlike what happened to the Germans in WWII. Only this time, the way the Indian Army capitulate would put even the Iraqi Army to shame.

Nevertheless, I would think it is still better for China to keep that strategy only as a last resort against India. Luckily there is still some time before WWIII becomes no longer unthinkable. China has the economic, industrial, and technological advantage against India. It is better for it to build up its military forces facing India. Increase recruitment, and ramp up production of military gear and supplies. Build a truly formidable military presence at the WTC. The ultimate aim is to deter India from backstabbing even when China is attacked by US and friends. If that deterrence fails, then China would have a military force capable of handling the Indian invasion in that region on their own. This would allow the main forces in East and South China to concentrate on the main defense of China without distraction.

Could this over-preparation on the WTC drain on the economy? Would it give China even more bad PR? Off course! But it is still better to have that security than having to anticipate an Indian backstab, and then resorting to contingency plans.

plawolf said:

I think China realistically now need to assume an Indian attack on the western boarder in the event of any sort of major military conflict occurring in the east or south.

India is an overtly hostile power who simply lack the means and competence to actually do China much harm on its own. Which is why it will almost certainly piggy back on any other major power’s conflict with China to try to kick China while it is down.

I think the PLA’s answer is at the first instance strategic deterrence, with demonstrations of PLA superiority.

But in the event of war with another major power in the east, I think China will priorities its forces to the east/south, and use its strategic depth, superior infrastructure and Indian ego to suck the Indians deep into the wilderness of western China.

Chinese forces can easily outmanoeuvre invading Indian forces and draw them in by using Chinese infrastructure to rapidly redeploy from the boarder regions to deny them the initial advantage they might have in the air.

Indian ego would have them push deeper and deeper, celebrating all the time and vastly inflating their exceptions from their invasion.

This buys the PLA time to win the war in the east/south, and then it can turn its full attention towards India.

The narrow Himalayan passes can be easily closed off with long range strikes, cutting off supplies, reinforcements and retreat. Allowing the PLA to totally destroy the Indian army on Chinese soil. At which point China can decide if it wants to call it quits or push right back into India now that its best fighting forces are destroyed.

Click to expand...

I would also add the Pakistan factor.
India will never dare to attack China knowing very well that if war takes place with them, Pakistan will capitalize on it . India will not only lose Ladakh but also Kashmir (Losing Kashmir would yield a much significant psychological blow to India than Ladakh ever will).

A 2 front war will result in complete Indian capitulation in less than 3 weeks with/without US support.

The current PLA force level on the Indian boarder is very much an anomaly, as China has always preferred tactical and strategic flexibility. Which is why it invested heavily in infrastructure so large scale deployments can be done in very short timeframes, as was demonstrated during the start of the conflict. So in effect, the entire PLA is the deterrent force as the PLA can redeploy as much of it’s forces as needed.

The issue isn’t so much PLA WTC standing forces as Indian hostility itself.

The goal of such an entrapment strategic manoeuvre is to inflict maximum casualties on the Indian military while also demonstrating Indian aggression beyond even the ability of the Indian BS press to spin and lie about.

Chinese scholars and strategists generally believes in second chances, so I think their long term hope is that a devastatingly costly (in human lives) defeat while invading undisputed Chinese territory will force a bit of soul searching in India, which will hopefully help them to course correct away from the current clash of civilisations trajectory they are on against China for no good reason. With Germany being a hopeful role model.

That will also be India’s final chance as far as China is concerned. If after a second war of aggression and utter defeat, India continues to harbour hostile intentions towards China, then I think Chinese leaders will conclude that India is beyond reasoning with, and will put in place contingency planning such that if India launches a third war of aggression against China, it will be their last. And Chinese retaliation will not end until India is irrevocably shattered and balkanised into many smaller parts that can be played off against each other more or less indefinitely so they never again have the means or will to launch wars of aggression against China.

This Maoist doctrine of "People's War" where you draw the enemy into your own territory should have died with Mao. Unfortunately, Chinese people are masters of making virtues out of necessities long past the point where the "necessities" are even applicable. It's completely pathological and irrational thinking, like a billionaire who compulsively clips grocery coupons. It's also the reason that China still doesn't have a nuclear arsenal commensurate to its stature to this day. A lot of Chinese people seem unable to believe their own success and it's a sorry sight to see such a loser mentality.

Would the US adopt such a strategy if Mexico harboured serious ambitions of reconquering the territories it lost? If a US general suggested the US army should "lure" Mexico into Texas and California before routing them, he'd be shot on the spot. If China observes India making serious preparations to invade China beyond these silly border games, China destroys India - end of story. It is repugnant to even consider a single Indian boot (or flip-flop, given the state of the Indian "army") on uncontested Chinese soil.

ZeEa5KPul said:

This Maoist doctrine of "People's War" where you draw the enemy into your own territory should have died with Mao. Unfortunately, Chinese people are masters of making virtues out of necessities long past the point where the "necessities" are even applicable. It's completely pathological and irrational thinking, like a billionaire who compulsively clips grocery coupons. It's also the reason that China still doesn't have a nuclear arsenal commensurate to its stature to this day. A lot of Chinese people seem unable to believe their own success and it's a sorry sight to see such a loser mentality.

Would the US adopt such a strategy if Mexico harboured serious ambitions of reconquering the territories it lost? If a US general suggested the US army should "lure" Mexico into Texas and California before routing them, he'd be shot on the spot. If China observes India making serious preparations to invade China beyond these silly border games, China destroys India - end of story. It is repugnant to even consider a single Indian boot (or flip-flop, given the state of the Indian "army") on uncontested Chinese soil.

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The good part of all this is that China has to tools needed to handle India and are still on high alert. Given that India’s immediate neighbour (Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh) all don’t really like India and another nation allies (western nations and USA) are too far away to really help. Really they are in a more painful position where any real attempt at war will certainly doom the nation since they don’t have the finances nor the war chest to get into a long term fight against China. Just maintaining the current forces on the border is enough to push India to spend its way to the grave, meaning of India doesnt wake up soon, well, they will be utterly screwed. Also to note is that Russia may not consider helping them give how willing they are to kowtow to the west at any given opportunity

ZeEa5KPul said:

This Maoist doctrine of "People's War" where you draw the enemy into your own territory should have died with Mao. Unfortunately, Chinese people are masters of making virtues out of necessities long past the point where the "necessities" are even applicable. It's completely pathological and irrational thinking, like a billionaire who compulsively clips grocery coupons. It's also the reason that China still doesn't have a nuclear arsenal commensurate to its stature to this day. A lot of Chinese people seem unable to believe their own success and it's a sorry sight to see such a loser mentality.

Would the US adopt such a strategy if Mexico harboured serious ambitions of reconquering the territories it lost? If a US general suggested the US army should "lure" Mexico into Texas and California before routing them, he'd be shot on the spot. If China observes India making serious preparations to invade China beyond these silly border games, China destroys India - end of story. It is repugnant to even consider a single Indian boot (or flip-flop, given the state of the Indian "army") on uncontested Chinese soil.

Click to expand...

Strategically, it is not in China's interest to "completely destroy" the Indian Army. It is in their interest to continue to drain the Indian budget. At least that is the case today. Here are a few points to support my argument.

1. In the longer term, if India feels that they are able to defend this area, they will continue to poor manpower and money to build up infrastructure in this area. There is no return on investment for these expenditures.

2. If India gets it face kicked in by the PLA, they will tilt completely to the West and become a protectorate of the U.S., that would bring the U.S. to China's doorstep and not in their interest. A more confident India will want to control its own destiny and will not be willing to become a U.S. protectorate.

3. There is still a chance later to integrate the Indian economy to the Chinese one if a complete all out war is avoided. This will add another front to the U.S. diplomacy.

4. While the Indian Navy is not a match for PLAN, it nevertheless diverts resources to the Indian Ocean in the case when the two nations are at war. It is good to avoid a two front war if possible.

After the PLAN is strong enough (6-8 CSGs of the Ford class variety), the situation will change. China will virtually control the West Pacific and the U.S. will retreat back to east of Midway. At that point, a lot of things will change and there will be a different attitude towards India. At that point, even if there are no more provocation from India, China may sought to break up India into smaller nations fighting each other. That is maybe two decades away.

reservior dogs said:

Strategically, it is not in China's interest to "completely destroy" the Indian Army. It is in their interest to continue to drain the Indian budget. At least that is the case today. Here are a few points to support my argument.

1. In the longer term, if India feels that they are able to defend this area, they will continue to poor manpower and money to build up infrastructure in this area. There is no return on investment for these expenditures.

2. If India gets it face kicked in by the PLA, they will tilt completely to the West and become a protectorate of the U.S., that would bring the U.S. to China's doorstep and not in their interest. A more confident India will want to control its own destiny and will not be willing to become a U.S. protectorate.

3. There is still a chance later to integrate the Indian economy to the Chinese one if a complete all out war is avoided. This will add another front to the U.S. diplomacy.

4. While the Indian Navy is not a match for PLAN, it nevertheless diverts resources to the Indian Ocean in the case when the two nations are at war. It is good to avoid a two front war if possible.

After the PLAN is strong enough (6-8 CSGs of the Ford class variety), the situation will change. China will virtually control the West Pacific and the U.S. will retreat back to east of Midway. At that point, a lot of things will change and there will be a different attitude towards India. At that point, even if there are no more provocation from India, China may sought to break up India into smaller nations fighting each other. That is maybe two decades away.

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Yea, but even if PRC is that nefarious, why would it want what is essentially a nuclear armed failed state on its border? What is the ultiamte objective of this strive and chaos?

No, I don't buy that bullshit.

The optimum path for India from a PRC perspective is a permutation of its current state, semi-industrialized, providing a market and labor for low tech and labor intensive goods.

PRC wants a compliant India that it can work with in terms of development. It is in China's interest to have a stable and developing India. But not its long term interest to have a developed India.

So the best strategy is to string it along, economically and financially, never quite a friend, but definitely not a enemy, and never a competitor.

In some ways, this is how US played China back in the 1990s, but it will be much more careful in order not to fully outsource its technical and manufacturing capabilities, so that this bilateral and somewhat subservient relationship last far more than 40-50 years, as it played out for US vis a vis China.

Fortunately, India is a lot more fractured than China was in the 1980s. And with a democratic system, there is far more room for maneuver and influence to sustain this relationship.

Great points but i would be in favour of instigating secessionists in the north east or providing arms and training to terrorists inside india; in the event of war, all effort should be taken to deprive the jai hinds of the fertile areas of the subcontinent, pushing them into the sea or the desert. The area should be permanent farmland.
I would normally want to turn the Jai Hinds into fertiliser but i don't think it is good to introduce diseases into the food chain.

This strategy effectively neutralises the Jai Hind threat and provides a subcontinent sized area for nature and farmland.