Ladakh Flash Point

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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
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Moderator - World Affairs
No, I think this whole thing, ever since Doklam standoff was a grand strategy by China to put India into a pocket.
I've always thought it very strange: why on earth would India even want to challenge China on land. The forefront of China/India is geo-strategically in China's favor: the border is no more than 500km away from New Dehli and right next to the heavily populated northern plain of India.

Ever heard of the Forward Policy?

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India is the aggressor. They wanted to invade Tibet
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
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I wanna see the vids where 1 jawan chokes out 20 chongs with his massive biceps
I think most people in the world would certainly agree with your assessment and I think most members and certainly myself agree that this whole thing is some grand strategy by China to drain India of its resources.

But it’s funny how if you look at the way Indians think, they would tell you that India has the advantage in a ground war with China. They primarily base this assessment on the assumption that supply lines for China from the its industrial centres to the front is too far and too stretched and that the concentration of forces is in India’s favour, which to some extent is true, tactically speaking, but like you said Indians seems to always neglect the strategic implications or the technology and financial disparity... if you look at the way Indian like to play out the war scenario they will say they have more airbases with air assets in the regions and therefore automatically have air superiority, more troops in the region where they can overwhelm China on the ground, then they will tell us that they have ballistic missile capable of reaching the industrial centres of China and finally they will say they can stave out China by blockading the The Malacca Straits. If you haven’t read or seen it before I suggest a good search on Quora... it’s a real good laugh and you can see the absolute delusions that some Indians have about their situation.

I do however have one contention, the situation of China and India is not the same or analogous with the situation of North and South Korea. The main reason being that with South Korea, there is a disproportionate concentration of industrial, both more traditional and high tech, and financial capacity as well as population in and around Seoul. Whereas for the Indians that’s not the case... it’s true that there is a higher concentration of population in the states around the ‘boarder’ regions but it is primarily the poorer/poorest in the Indian’s case, apart from maybe the New Delhi and Punjab areas, whilst the Indian’s industrial and financial centres are more in the central to southern regions of India further away from the ‘boarder’ region... the relative disruptions in the case of a ground war would be big but not as crippling as the case with South Korea.


The problem is not so much that India is a populist democracy... it’s Modi who is a populist that rose because of the strong man image, the entire base for the Modi government is about a strong India therefore its impossible for the Indians to back down... further it’s not possible for India to place their major focus on their navy since the main enemy the Modi government have been using is Pakistan to whom the current Indian navy is seen as enough to overpowering. There is also the consideration that even if the Indians focused on their navy, it would be difficult to fight the PLAN in the Indian Ocean, the disparity in industrial output and more specifically in naval tonnage output is just too great and the difference in technology is also a big issue. What the Indian should have concentrated on is not the military aspects, since they procure the majority of their equipment from abroad anyway, but pure industrial capacity and capacity, and economics... had the Indians had done as advertised when Modi came to power the Indian threat could have been remotely credible but as it is right now... no matter what the Indians choose to focus on in the military aspects... its only a drop in the ocean, they can’t buy or build their way out of the situation, whilst China has the capacity, capability and will to build their way to an ever growing advantage.

The problem is that India failed to execute on this front. To increase their industrial capability requires a strong government. I see all the Indians jumping up and down when the did 7% growth. A lot of people in the know said that the growth numbers are highly inflated. Then, even before Covid hit, it was coming down to 4%. In the mean time, I don't see any meaningful program that will increase their industrial output. An obvious path would be to reform their MIC, which the government have control over, but no movement in that direction. When Covid came, they needed to deflect all the problems by finding an external enemy, but all along, they had failed to improved their industrial capability. If they were friendly with the Chinese, China could help them, but there are many more countries in South East Asia or even Bangladesh which are better governed with less red tape. India, being an enemy of China, will have to wait until all these other nations had their turn. Now that they sunk down to this deep hole, it would be difficult to dig themselves out. On the Chinese side, the cost to keep this going is quite low, on the Indian side, they will have to spend huge sums of money doing infrastructure building in an area that will not have any economic value when there are so many other areas they can use more infrastructures.
 

reservior dogs

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Ever heard of the Forward Policy?

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India is the aggressor. They wanted to invade Tibet
It would make sense if they were dealing with Sikkim. Dealing with China, who has all the advantages, they really should give up. I can see how India is nervous that China has controlled all the high ground the source of water, but Tibet was never a place that India could take. Just think of the logistics of trying to move stuff up that wall which is the Himalayas. On the Chinese side, the situation is different. They just have to stroll over from nearby areas of the high plateau. If the neighbor was United States instead of India, they would still have a hard time taking that place today. That is why even the British recognize that this represent the natural border for India.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
It would make sense if they were dealing with Sikkim. Dealing with China, who has all the advantages, they really should give up. I can see how India is nervous that China has controlled all the high ground the source of water, but Tibet was never a place that India could take. Just think of the logistics of trying to move stuff up that wall which is the Himalayas. On the Chinese side, the situation is different. They just have to stroll over from nearby areas of the high plateau. If the neighbor was United States instead of India, they would still have a hard time taking that place today. That is why even the British recognize that this represent the natural border for India.

Their appetite is bigger than their capabilities. India is a bully that got his way in the Indian Subcontinent and thought it can take on China.
 

jimmyjames30x30

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Ever heard of the Forward Policy?

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India is the aggressor. They wanted to invade Tibet

No, I don't see anything meaningful here. It's like saying Vietnam want to invade South China. It's nothing but a wet dream. You can't stop regular people from their wet dreams. But that doesn't mean those wet dreams have a chance of happening. China is the real power that has a real outward going global strategy and put forth real endeavors (OBOR, RCEP, etc.), India has media hit pieces and Bollywood.

If even the British India did not invade Tibet and Xinjiang back when they had both the intention and need (The Great Game), I don't think India today is anywhere close. Of course regular Indian might think otherwise, but they are not the people who is actually running the country. What's worse is that they are the people who elect individuals that will actually run their country. It's like a bunch of foolish peasants demanding an educated person to grand their unreasonable wishes and fantasies like a genie in a lamp.

It's kinda like idiotic redneck Americans thinking that North Korea want to invade the USA. If you can see the American rednecks as laughably outlandish, you should be able to see the idiocy in thinking that "India wants to invade Tibet".

I would rather talk about things that are tangible. If you think "India wants to invade Tibet", tell me their actual actions either in real preparation or planning. Otherwise it's nothing but bullshit.
 

jimmyjames30x30

Junior Member
Registered Member
But it’s funny how if you look at the way Indians think, they would tell you that India has the advantage in a ground war with China. They primarily base this assessment on the assumption that supply lines for China from the its industrial centres to the front is too far and too stretched and that the concentration of forces is in India’s favour, which to some extent is true, tactically speaking, but like you said Indians seems to always neglect the strategic implications or the technology and financial disparity... if you look at the way Indian like to play out the war scenario they will say they have more airbases with air assets in the regions and therefore automatically have air superiority, more troops in the region where they can overwhelm China on the ground, then they will tell us that they have ballistic missile capable of reaching the industrial centres of China and finally they will say they can stave out China by blockading the The Malacca Straits. If you haven’t read or seen it before I suggest a good search on Quora... it’s a real good laugh and you can see the absolute delusions that some Indians have about their situation.

These are only true if both China and India do NOT have any control over Tibet. But that's not the case. Tibet is in PRC's full control, after decades of infrastructure building. The situation is not like that, because PLA could put their missiles almost right at the border. India's proximity to the regions means nothing because the terrain is forbiddingly bad for India's side, the steepness will kill whatever advantage of proximity. It's not like China and India are both starting from the bottom of the plateau. China already control almost all of the plateau, the weapons and supplies are already there. The missiles stationed on China's side are situated in unpopulated/scarcely-populated areas, aiming at Indian missiles launchers and airfields that are situated in densely populated areas. When war starts, after the exchange of mid and short range ballistic/cruise missiles the collateral damage alone will be mostly on India's side. Number of front line airfields means nothing in front of missiles attacks. They are a nothing but a pile of rubles until the Home Front could resupply/repair them. China's Home Front will be out of reach from the majority of missiles in India's arsenal. But for China, Indian Home front is right in the crosshair of China's most numerous type of missiles - short to medium range missiles. In a war of attrition, India will be bled dry within weeks if not days.
 
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