Ladakh Flash Point

Mt1701d said:

Well the farmers got the right idea... I mean cows are the biggest weapon they have against Hindu nationalists... as Hindus they can’t exactly shoot or gas cows in broad day

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You mean those farmer are holding the cow hostages? or use them as meatshield?

LCR34 said:

You mean those farmer are holding the cow hostages? or use them as meatshield?

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Nah... neither... more like road blocks... the idea of the protest is to stop the government from implementing what the government wants to do... and like all protest they stop the economy to force the government’s hand... when the farmers went to protest the police came in force, to stop them and ended up beating and gassing people... by using the cows the police can’t really do anything while the farmers block the streets and shut down New Delhi by force, unless the BJP wants to drop their Hindu nationalist pretence...

So we shall see who blinks first... 56 inch chest strong man Modi or 250 million farmers with an even bigger army of cows...

In the middle of a conflict with China, India has taken a significant step by authorising the defence forces to enhance their stocking of weapons and ammunition for a 15-day intense war now.

from 10-day to 15-day，50% improvement，impressive！

Mr T said:

Depends how far India goes. India is a big customer for Russia, so it would have to be a major change of foreign policy to lead to India being cut off.

Russia has sold India plenty of material, but there's no realistic prospect of it providing direct assistance if India was involved in a military conflict. Can Moscow really complain if New Delhi cooperates with countries that might, in theory, be willing to back it up to even a limited degree?

I think Russia's recent comments are fairly cynical and are simply designed to try to convince India not to join with the USA and its allies in forming a counterweight to China, because for now it suits Russia in having China cause headaches for said countries. Is there anything behind those words? I'm not so sure.

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You bring up some good points but #1) Western arms are more expensive than Russian arms and #2) Western arms come with political strings attached. Unless Modi is content with abandoning the superpower dream then he can't go all in on Western military imports.

siegecrossbow said:

You bring up some good points but #1) Western arms are more expensive than Russian arms and #2) Western arms come with political strings attached. Unless Modi is content with abandoning the superpower dream then he can't go all in on Western military imports.

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I fully agree that Modi will not reorganise India's military to mostly or exclusively use NATO/US-allied equipment. It makes sense to continue buying Russian arms, albeit India has diversified a bit with purchasing Rafales, Scorpenes, etc.

I interpreted Russia's recent statement to be talking about India's strategic posture, not who it buys arms from. I'm sure India will continue to be a good customer for Russia, which will give Moscow an incentive to not discontinue further sales, even if India starts cooperating more with Five Eyes nations in Asia.

siegecrossbow said:

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Is China content with the new status quo for a permanent resolution to the issue of the border, or would it just be banking the revised border and making further demands? That's one of the problems I see with a long-term solution, as it's not clear what Beijing would accept short of getting 100% of what it wants (although one would hope it would agree to a compromise).

Mr T said:

Is China content with the new status quo for a permanent resolution to the issue of the border, or would it just be banking the revised border and making further demands? That's one of the problems I see with a long-term solution, as it's not clear what Beijing would accept short of getting 100% of what it wants (although one would hope it would agree to a compromise).

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Beijing really doesn't care about India, nor does it want much in a barren mountain range. It is focused on the issues that matter on its east coast. The problem is the Indians making a push for more every time they see what might be an opportunity, and when it turns out that they only ended up with another bloody nose from their own actions, they cry victim. China's interests aren't even in that area but India has fantasies all over from taking Tibet to various other kinds of nonsense. They were fed lies about democracy to believe that they should be the dominant power in that region so they are desperate to find any opportunity to stick it to China to try to show that that is true. The biggest reason for which there is no settlement there is that China knows that India will take whatever they can get and always ask for more when they think they can get it and start the next disaster.

Mr T said:

Is China content with the new status quo for a permanent resolution to the issue of the border, or would it just be banking the revised border and making further demands? That's one of the problems I see with a long-term solution, as it's not clear what Beijing would accept short of getting 100% of what it wants (although one would hope it would agree to a compromise).

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In the 60s China was willing to trade Aksai Chin for South Tibet. Not sure about now.

Mr T said:

Is China content with the new status quo for a permanent resolution to the issue of the border, or would it just be banking the revised border and making further demands? That's one of the problems I see with a long-term solution, as it's not clear what Beijing would accept short of getting 100% of what it wants (although one would hope it would agree to a compromise).

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No. There will be new moves.

Any problem?