Ladakh Flash Point
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The USA is funding and arming India to fight China. India is interested in the arms to first fight Pakistan.
The above is analogous to the situation in the mid 1950s with the US interest in Pakistan as a proxy in taking on the Soviet Union via Afghanistan. In the 1950s the USA funded and armed Pakistan with the sole intention of using Pakistan's strategic position via Afghanistan to penetrate the "soft underbelly" of the Soviet Union (Uzbekistan). The USA was using Peshawar airbase to fly U-2 surveillance flights into the Soviet Union. When the Soviet Union downed a U-2 plane capturing it's pilot with a confirmation of where the flights were operating from Nikita Kruschev threatened air strikes on Pakistan.
Pakistan immediately withdrew permission for the CIA to use Peshawar airbase and the U-2 flights stopped.
The analogy with the 1950s era USA Pakistan relationship is once again relevant.
Pakistan was not interested in provoking the Soviet Union and becoming canon fodder.
Pakistan's primary threat was from India and the Soviet threat from Afghanistan was secondary. But obviously Pakistan was interested in the arms and aid provided by the USA. A few years later in the war with India the US arms received had a telling effect on the outcome.
India is unlikely to initiate any hostilities with China beyond a certain point. Like Pakistan in the 1950s against the Soviet Union, India knows that a provocation against China would result in a swift and devastating retaliation.
Under it's Chanakyaniti principle
India has chosen to tactically lose or pretend to lose territory to gain US sympathy and receive a massive US arms influx. These weapons will be used to defeat Pakistan and capture the CPEC lifeline. India can then better negotiate an agreement with China offering joint control over Pakistan.
Differences between the 1950s Pakistan-US alliance and the current US-India scenario:
- The USA had imposed a strict condition on the use of weapons supplied to Pakistan. These were to be used only against the Soviet Union.
There are no such restrictions in the weapons being supplied to India.
- The USA was actually using bases in Pakistan against the Soviet Union. So far there is no indication that the USA has a similar access to bases in India.
- In the late 1970s Pakistan- CIA collaboration in funding extremist Mujahidin activity ( with Saudi help) both in Afghanistan and in Uzbekistan finally resulted in a Soviet retaliation by an invasion of Afghanistan. The Soviet Union also carried out air strikes on Mujahidin training camps on the Pak-Afghan border. This was exactly the reaction the USA was hoping for to embroil the Soviet Union in a war that would bleed it to death.
India has made cosmetic moves to fund Tibetan "resistance " ( and also "sympathy for Uyghurs ") to impress the USA. The difference here is that Tibet and Xinjiang is no Afghanistan and Uzbekistan and China is not the Soviet Union to be baited into a protracted war.
This fact is known to the USA and India's western allies, but the long term objective is to get India allow bases for Western NATO forces as well as full use of naval bases and ports.
If the price India demands is an unfettered attack on Pakistan then the West couldn't care less. For the USA Pakistan has served its purpose.
The tragedy of all of this is that India's leaders and their families and assets are safely ensconced in the US/UK/Australia, so they're not going to be the ones getting shrapneled to death when the war comes to India; these same leaders can blithely order their undercasts to fight and die for "mother India" in service of the Anglosphere whilst hobnobbing with their pals at Eton and Harvard.
In continuation;
The Western strategy goes much beyond China, and Ladakh.
The Sino-Indian border is a mere skirmish in the larger picture.
The move is to make India into a "super-Israel " such that it will serve as a proxy from the "Indo-Pacific " to Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asia.
The two impediments to this game are obviously China and Pakistan.
The Ladakh skirmish is a good way to divert China's attention while the dissolution of Pakistan can be planned. Baluchistan is one region being actively encouraged for independence along with the "Siberian Territory Federation " in Russia.
The Baluchistan plan is complicated by China's interest in Gawadar port.
Even more stupid is that China would easily see through this and then just simply let the under cast starve to death in a few years due to food shortage and then the neighbouring nations might actually divide the spoils while the rich in India cry to there masters in the west about how there nation fell down and ultimately grant their neighbours lots of resources while they pretty much failed to accomplish anything
I am amused a bit by this particular part , if this is grand plan of West.
A "super-Israel" India will require India not only to do the licking Israel does, Israel also has some unique capabilities in peer scientific fields of it's own like it or not which is very valuable serving any interested party. I would like to know what is indian capabilities that matches those.
They want to be a faithful lap dog, that's fine. But to be lap dog, they need to achieve the quality a dog has on it's own. If they can't even do that, then they are mere lap donkey. Unlike dog, donkey unfortunately doesn't have much use in modern era.
To replicate this plan in Central Asia,on door steps of Russia, india would need 3 things
1. Manpower who are willing to get slaughtered on daily basis.
2 Economy that can sustain this even with western help.
3. Technological prowess that will enable this that will minimize damange so they don't have to call their boss every time after their plane is crashed.
Israel demonstrated all of these 3.
Whatever CIA did in Afghanistan is history.
There are several factors that were absent in 1950s,now single handedly change the entire complexity of those scenarios to be replicated.
First & foremost,is of course, the presence of Nuclear weapons.
Second, presence of missiles & cheap drones.
We have seen what those could do during the KSA oil facility saga last year.
I am not sure how india even figures in the pan, if there is such a plan at all. Of course, when i say plan, i mean actual plan. US always harbored the fantasy for "free siberia".
But on capacity basis, i would like to bid best wishes on behalf of these 2 wannabe ramboos & leave it there.
Indian App developers can copy the App UI but that's about it. The main component is algorithm that takes many years to perfect . People simply think you can ban an app and launch a credible alternative in an instant. Whatever India does, China can do better, opposite is not true though.
Nobonita,
Please read my previous post which would answer your questions .
To be realistic:
1. India has geography and land mass fairly well protected by natural barriers as well as a double coastline with a fairly robust naval defense. Israel doesn't have that.
2. India has Soviet era legacy space, nuclear, chemical and biological warfare capabilities with a fairly large suite of missiles and delivery platforms from air, land and sea. Israel has these capabilities but is limited in scope because any use in the neighborhood results in self-contamination due to a smaller geographical area. In India's case the contamination factor with either China or Pakistan is likely to be in ths North only.
3.India has an overwhelming manpower and geographical ability over its chief adversary which is Pakistan where there are no natural barriers. With China a natural barrier and distances helps mitigate the military disadvantage.
Israel has no natural barriers against its adversaries and has relied on a combination of military superiority, western backing and undermining of hostile regimes in the region to maintain its superiority. India can mostly look after itself on this score.
The biggest difference between Israel and India is that internally Israelis are united and are linguistically and culturally homogeneous. India is internally riven with caste, linguistic and religious conflicts. It is India's internal politics that worries its allies.
India's allies do feel that a solution to India's caste problem and internal stability is religious nationalism and the elimination of India's 11% minority population. The recent events seem to prove this theory right because the current regime in India is politically in a very comfortable position, rather like Germany in the 1930s. Unlike Is
Germany India is lackadaisical in implementation of the infrastructure needed to remove its 11%. A few pogroms cause deaths but perhaps due to a pandemic India has not implemented the National Citizens Register and only interned a small fraction of the population in concentration camps. Post pandemic we may see India rushing to complete the 4000 concentration camps needed.
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