Ladakh Flash Point

SPOOPYSKELETON said:

Whats not in it for China? Breaking the anti China coalition the US is trying to build is reason enough.

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It's long-term India management. You can use military force to break the Quad, but the Indians will still be pissed off. Using caste-based movements provides China with at least a friendly country to its southwestern flank.

I'm not saying it's wise to rule out just breaking the Quad by breaking the Indian Army, but I'm saying even when you do that you still need a friendly or neutral India to your side.

But I think this is the basic China-India problem; both China and India are going to be here and as long as China (and it plans to) holds Tibet they're both going to be on the border.

Until the caste system is resolved, any attempts to be friendly with India are going to have the constant sword of Damocles of caste-based politics threatening to torpedo any allies the Chinese cultivate.

Therefore, in Chinese policies vis-a-vis India, China should constantly keep caste and caste revolution in mind. Promoting China among Shudras and others who do not like the Indian caste system is more potent than simply fellating Brahmins, Kshatriya, and other Forward Castes. Hell, as a policy, this is way more potent than trying to promote regional insurgencies because those are merely regional insurgencies. Attacking through the caste system means that China is hitting India's weak spot and by allying with progressive castes, China is on the right side of history.

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China has already attempted this via the left wing parties in India in the 50s and 60s. A study of the Communist Parties of India and how the original CPI first splintered into a CPM faction (based on the Sino-Soviet split mirrored in India ). The CPM splintered again into a Pro-Lin Piao Anti Lin Piao faction. Ultimately in the late 60s there was yet another splinter when the CPM factions split into the dreaded Naxalite groups officially known as CPI ( ML) or Marxist Lennist.
The CPI ( ML) leaders, Charu Majumdar, Azizul Haque, Kanu Sanyal , and Jangal Santhal ( dreaded names ! ) visited Beijing for a conference around 1968-1969.
Today there are a dozen "Naxalite" groups each fighting "casteism, and corporate sector rural exploitation" in its own violent way in every region.
From the MCC ( Maoist Communist Center). IPF ( Indian People's Front),

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Inst said:

I don't see what's the point of not trying again.

China exporting revolution the first time around was half-successful half-unsuccessful depending on the social development of the target country. The second time around, I wouldn't say it's as much trying to export revolution but trying to export modernity.

Because the goals are much more limited, and the aim is simply to piggyback off an existing movement (i.e, provide pro-China elites through exploiting a social inevitability in India), I don't see it ending up in the same flames as the Maoist movement.

Remember, the first phase of revolution in China was merely murdering landlords and intellectuals in a bloodbath of violence. The second phase emphasized social development and reform more, which led to the Chinese economic miracle. IIRC China officially disavows the current Maoist movements in India, so there's ripe ground to replace the Maoists as useless.

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Actually many rural communities in India have seen cultural secular reforms due to the efforts of the left wing groups.
The biggest gains have been in gender protection. With swift retribution, rapes and molestations of rural women in Naxalite dominated areas is rare. Also rare is religious violence between Hindus and Muslims as Naxalites are quick to clamp down on religious fundamentalism of all types. Caste violence is also completely eliminated. Also implemented are land reforms. The land owning class is almost exclusively Upper caste with some large "kulak" type land holders among the Backward Castes.
However the Naxalites have a flawed weakness as they eschew the electoral politics and apart from some groups such as the Indian People's Front never contest elections. The Naxalites are also in perpetual armed conflict with the police and state paramilitary forces and though have inflicted heavy losses on their adversaries they are forced to remain in a rural heavily forested environment.
They run their own judiciary system and their punishments for rape for example are brutal ( beheadings). Naxalites have a very marginal presence in the cities and amongst the industrial workforce unions .
At one time the left wing parties had a significant presence in university unions, labor unions as well as in the Indian Parliament.
The political environment in India has swung to the right with extreme religious fundamentalism and communal violence. There is deliberate stoking of fear and hatred. The left wing groups are powerless to counter this surge of irrationality pervading the psyche of the Indian masses.

Inst said:

It's long-term India management. You can use military force to break the Quad, but the Indians will still be pissed off. Using caste-based movements provides China with at least a friendly country to its southwestern flank.

I'm not saying it's wise to rule out just breaking the Quad by breaking the Indian Army, but I'm saying even when you do that you still need a friendly or neutral India to your side.

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Look, the current situation in Indian border does not cause too much problems for China. In addition, it is in their interest to keep India in one piece at the moment. It does not make any sense for China to go on a wild adventure and spend so much energy when it cost them almost nothing to keep the status quo. The Indian leg of the Quad does not impact China too much. In twenty years, when the U.S. retreat back to North America, it might become worthwhile for them to break up India into multiple countries fighting each other. In that case, whether they hate China for doing this or not, they will hate their other neighbors more and need China to keep them in the winning side. As long as U.S. is not able to intervene in the subcontinent, it would work out for China. I just don't see why China would want to divert its attention. That is exactly the reason you are not seeing any action to even really fight the war in the border at the moment from China.

reservior dogs said:

Look, the current situation in Indian border does not cause too much problems for China. In addition, it is in their interest to keep India in one piece at the moment. It does not make any sense for China to go on a wild adventure and spend so much energy when it cost them almost nothing to keep the status quo. The Indian leg of the Quad does not impact China too much. In twenty years, when the U.S. retreat back to North America, it might become worthwhile for them to break up India into multiple countries fighting each other. In that case, whether they hate China for doing this or not, they will hate their other neighbors more and need China to keep them in the winning side. As long as U.S. is not able to intervene in the subcontinent, it would work out for China. I just don't see why China would want to divert its attention. That is exactly the reason you are not seeing any action to even really fight the war in the border at the moment from China.

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You have an inaccurate view of the costs involved.

All I'm saying is this:

-China provides education to Indians, privileging OBCs, Dalits, and SCs / STs to a higher extent than India itself does; i.e, it's 75% non-FC.
-Chinese entities operating in India act in awareness of caste politics and take a preferential attitude toward OBCs etc.

This isn't that expensive, even an engorged educational program will likely cost less than 1 billion USD a year.

Inst said:

You have an inaccurate view of the costs involved.

All I'm saying is this:

-China provides education to Indians, privileging OBCs, Dalits, and SCs / STs to a higher extent than India itself does; i.e, it's 75% non-FC.
-Chinese entities operating in India act in awareness of caste politics and take a preferential attitude toward OBCs etc.

This isn't that expensive, even an engorged educational program will likely cost less than 1 billion USD a year.

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The Chinese are in the business of working with existing powers in a given country and negotiating deals of mutual benefit. What you propose would make sense if they want to overthrow the current Indian structure and replace it with another. It is not even the money, but the conflicts that this would cause from the existing power structure in India. It is not in their interest to work against this power structure. Too much energy and negative gain for China until the existing power structure is overthrown. The Chinese are busy with their own issues. They are happy to let the Indians work out their own problems. To China, India is like a pesky beggar accosting a passing pedestrian, best to take a few quick steps to get out of the situation. Until India have the means to invade the Chinese in Ladakh or other border areas, they are looking at how to minimize the energy spent in that direction.

reservior dogs said:

The Chinese are in the business of working with existing powers in a given country and negotiating deals of mutual benefit. What you propose would make sense if they want to overthrow the current Indian structure and replace it with another. It is not even the money, but the conflicts that this would cause from the existing power structure in India. It is not in their interest to work against this power structure. Too much energy and negative gain for China until the existing power structure is overthrown. The Chinese are busy with their own issues. They are happy to let the Indians work out their own problems. To China, India is like a pesky beggar accosting a passing pedestrian, best to take a few quick steps to get out of the situation. Until India have the means to invade the Chinese in Ladakh or other border areas, they are looking at how to minimize the energy spent in that direction.

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The problem is more that the Indian political structure is unstable; what I've said is that it's not worth it to make deals and agreements with Indian leaders because they will likely get tossed out when India's caste system comes to a boil. It is likely going to be a soft-revolution, i.e, non-violent and driven by the Indian electoral process, but it means all of the ties and connections China is building up in India are potentially useless.

The goal of working with future powers in India is, first, India is potentially extremely anti-Chinese in the short-term, based on Hindu nationalism. This means that it might be impossible to work with India in the short-term, if you look at the boycotts and the rampant nationalism. Second, the future powers are cheaper to work with and to bribe because you're making an investment in future power, not current power.

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I am not saying that the Chinese should back the Naxalites to take over India. I am simply saying that China should focus on developing ties with India's future leaders to provide a better business environment for the Chinese when they eventually take power. This is not economically costly; at worst it's state-subsidized education for Indian non-FC.

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You have to remember the Chinese intelligence failure in Iran; i.e, they thought the Shah was completely stable and couldn't foresee Iran undergoing an Islamic revolution. The assumption you're making is that the current Indian power structure is likewise stable, and is worth negotiating with.

Inst said:

You have an inaccurate view of the costs involved.

All I'm saying is this:

-China provides education to Indians, privileging OBCs, Dalits, and SCs / STs to a higher extent than India itself does; i.e, it's 75% non-FC.
-Chinese entities operating in India act in awareness of caste politics and take a preferential attitude toward OBCs etc.

This isn't that expensive, even an engorged educational program will likely cost less than 1 billion USD a year.

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A very commendable course of action.
The Dalits, and the vast majority of poor rural populations in India are least interested in hostilities with China or making India into a bully in the neighborhood.
None of the left wing parties weakened and enfeebled as they are with the rise of religious nationalism have ever advocated war with China. Even the pro-Soviet CPI at the height of bonhomie with the Congress party in power never supported tensions with the PRC and celebrated China's admission to the UN in 1972.
However the mainstream communist parties once ruling three provinces including the crucial province of West Bengal are defunct, The Naxalites are there only in the forests.
It is not so much the loss of direct political power that is important as the fouling of the young urban Indian mindset into a fascist matrix.
The biggest loss has been the media when every left of center major newspaper and journal has been either shut down or bankrupted. The left in India has lost power in the workers unions, the rural self-administration councils ( panchayats which is roughly equivalent to the Soviets).
The rise of fascism in India seems unstoppable. The Naxalites are fighting this in their own misguided way taking on the fascists head on with brute force. With small numbers their impact is limited only to the areas they control.
The rise of hyper nationalism in India bodes ill for peace in the region.

Inst said:

The problem is more that the Indian political structure is unstable; what I've said is that it's not worth it to make deals and agreements with Indian leaders because they will likely get tossed out when India's caste system comes to a boil. It is likely going to be a soft-revolution, i.e, non-violent and driven by the Indian electoral process, but it means all of the ties and connections China is building up in India are potentially useless.

The goal of working with future powers in India is, first, India is potentially extremely anti-Chinese in the short-term, based on Hindu nationalism. This means that it might be impossible to work with India in the short-term, if you look at the boycotts and the rampant nationalism. Second, the future powers are cheaper to work with and to bribe because you're making an investment in future power, not current power.

===

I am not saying that the Chinese should back the Naxalites to take over India. I am simply saying that China should focus on developing ties with India's future leaders to provide a better business environment for the Chinese when they eventually take power. This is not economically costly; at worst it's state-subsidized education for Indian non-FC.

===

You have to remember the Chinese intelligence failure in Iran; i.e, they thought the Shah was completely stable and couldn't foresee Iran undergoing an Islamic revolution. The assumption you're making is that the current Indian power structure is likewise stable, and is worth negotiating with.

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I think the Chinese have a pretty clear picture of the dynamics of Indian politics and power structure. They know what types of deals they can get and if the deal could be trusted. Their expectations are quite low. They just want to minimize the energy spent. If a new group emerges and start to take over large swaths of India, they will work with that group. They will not initiate any action in favor of lifting certain groups.

Bright Sword said:

The rise of hyper nationalism in India bodes ill for peace in the region.

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With China around, there is not much that the Indians can do. Even the Nepalese was able to get back some of the land India took with the backing of the Chinese. Just as nothing happens with domestic development, nothing will happen with a real war against another neighbor. India does not have the guts or the means.

Inst said:

The problem is more that the Indian political structure is unstable; what I've said is that it's not worth it to make deals and agreements with Indian leaders because they will likely get tossed out when India's caste system comes to a boil. It is likely going to be a soft-revolution, i.e, non-violent and driven by the Indian electoral process, but it means all of the ties and connections China is building up in India are potentially useless.

The goal of working with future powers in India is, first, India is potentially extremely anti-Chinese in the short-term, based on Hindu nationalism. This means that it might be impossible to work with India in the short-term, if you look at the boycotts and the rampant nationalism. Second, the future powers are cheaper to work with and to bribe because you're making an investment in future power, not current power.

===

I am not saying that the Chinese should back the Naxalites to take over India. I am simply saying that China should focus on developing ties with India's future leaders to provide a better business environment for the Chinese when they eventually take power. This is not economically costly; at worst it's state-subsidized education for Indian non-FC.

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An interesting tidbit:
Though faded there is bold graffiti on the walls of rural homes in eastern India scrawled by the CPI ( ML) and MCC cadres:
" Amaar Chairman Chairman Mao"
( Chairman Mao is our Chairman)
The MCC and Lal Sena Cadres still give the old fashioned clenched fist salute, with the cry;
" Bolen Shakha, Lal Salam"
( Cry out comrades, Red Salute)