Ladakh Flash Point

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ansy1968 said:
HI Shaolian,

Regarding India needing a few decades of replicating China's rise to be able to challenge China, I'm afraid it can't be done unless there's a political revolution in India.

It need a Mao that will facilitate a total society change. The Hindu religion itself is a major obstacle for reform, the teaching itself is inhuman (caste system) there is no social mobility. A person who is born a Dalit is forever live a life of misery, like a slave, there is no way out.
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The entire idea of India WANTING to challenge China is stupid. Even in the best case scenario for India, you end up only having a 33% population superiority over China, and China will still be a more developed state unless it screws up tremendously, meaning it'll be at or near parity unless it screws up.

Basically, India wanting to challenge China is India trying to screw with a peer or near-peer power, and is doomed to failure. When the US tried to contain the Soviet Union, the Soviets had a scrapheap for an economy while the US had 50% of global GDP at the outset.

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And look at the present situation. You have 3.5-4.5 nominal / PPP gdp differences. At the present odds, it's 4:1 in China's favor. In the future, it's still going to be 50/50 odds, and India wants to fight for that game?
 
Nobonita Barua

Nobonita Barua

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reservior dogs

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Inst said:
The entire idea of India WANTING to challenge China is stupid. Even in the best case scenario for India, you end up only having a 33% population superiority over China, and China will still be a more developed state unless it screws up tremendously, meaning it'll be at or near parity unless it screws up.

Basically, India wanting to challenge China is India trying to screw with a peer or near-peer power, and is doomed to failure. When the US tried to contain the Soviet Union, the Soviets had a scrapheap for an economy while the US had 50% of global GDP at the outset.

===

And look at the present situation. You have 3.5-4.5 nominal / PPP gdp differences. At the present odds, it's 4:1 in China's favor. In the future, it's still going to be 50/50 odds, and India wants to fight for that game?
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Agreed. In fact, it is much worse. In this case you have a country that is basically pre-industrial against a fully industrialized nation. If you want to see how it works, take a look at Japan against China during WWII and you get the idea. Japan, with a much smaller nation and smaller GDP, won very easily against a much bigger China.
 
bajingan

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China and russia slowly but steadily building a true alliance instead of vassalage that the us has with its "allies"
This alliance with russia will help China tremendeously in resisting us efforts to contain it
The quad (us, japan, australia, india) will have to take into account russia if they ever think about provoking China
 
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The Indian perception of China and why normalization of relations is unlikely. ( Part 1 of 2)
At this point there is a hot debate going on in India about which country China or Pakistan is the "worse" enemy. The fact that there is a debate on this is an indication of a radical shift in the South Asian scenario. So far there has been a difference between how India perceives its two adversaries ; China and Pakistan. India's aggressive stance with Pakistan has been fairly consistent for the last 7 decades , whereas with China the level of aggressiveness has varied over the years. The current situation is unique. Never before has India's stance been simultaneously aggressive at this level with both countries

A brief review of the way India perceives both China and Pakistan.

China:

For most of the decades since independence, India viewed China as
a neighbor with whom there is only a major territorial dispute and few if any other issues. In India's stance has been that China is in occupation of "Indian" territory as defined by the British colonial legacy. At one time prior to the war of 1962 this territory though important to India had little economic and nominal strategic value. as it consisted mostly of high altitude uninhabited expanses of "rock and ice " (as mentioned by Indian Prime Minister Mr. Nehru in Parliament ). With an officially " non-aligned " (though heavily weighted to the then Soviet Union bloc) India's policy towards China throughout years from the early to mid 1950s was nominally accommodating. India's managed media hyped the relationship with the slogan "Indians and Chinese Brothers ! ". The apex of this relationship was Chou en Lai's visit to India. Crowds thronged the road from New Delhi airport welcoming the Chinese Premier.

Over the years the relationship soured as India moved troops "forward " indicating to China it was ready for a conflict. The causes and conclusion of the 1962 Sino Indian war are well known not necessary for the purpose of this article. Even after suffering a humiliating defeat India still refrained from continuing any military action and agreed to open up bilateral trade , communications, and a limited "people to people " contact with China.Trade burgeoned and the LAC remained peaceful.

The environment has rapidly changed. Under the Hindu nationalist government that came to power in 2014 India has now started to have regional power ambitions and views China as an impediment to achieving its role. The irritant factor with China is no longer just territorial dispute ( which could be resolved through negotiations). Per the Hindu Nationalist (fascist) regime a long term strategic goal of the destruction of China must be pursued.

India perceives itself in the forefront of a "global alliance " against China. India believes it is not doing this alone. India also believes that encouragement from other countries in its goal of of sending back China back into the "century of humiliation is genuine. Which is why India is openly announcing threats such as closure of the Malacca Straits or the closure of the CPEC through military action. These theaters of war have nothing to do with the territorial dispute. Significantly China has kept the focus strictly on the Ladakh and South Tibet fronts instead of threatening "necklace of pearls" based air or submarine strikes on Indian shipping in the Indian Ocean.

India is now firmly in a military alliance building phase and the primary goal is the destruction of China. India perceives itself similar to the position of UK in NATO during the Cold War and there is increasingly open to US nuclear bases and positioning of strike aircraft ( per reports B2- Spirit bombers).
 
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