Ladakh Flash Point

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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Once China taken Taiwan by force, things will happen
1)US led western economic sanction on China. It's a given. Like Russia sanction after Crimea.
2)US and allies forces still superior surrounding China. Including Malacca strait. Still liable to be choked by US and it's allies.
3) key Taiwanese talents and elites and already evacuated from island. Meaning TSMC will start it's new life at US. KeyTSMC tech will not be left at Taiwan.


So what would be difference by then? What now?

The strategic dynamic has not changed at all except ensuring western economic sanction. Once China this vulnerable, India will jump in to rub salt at the wound to block Chinese ships at Andaman sea, this is consented by US and its allies.


This is a complete dead end to me.

The way it is now suit me well China got good check on India they can't move India is skin rash but Taiwan is cancer Get your priority straight. No need to waste energy! You can only send some one children, brother and husband to die only for core cause and not for frivolous cause. Time will come when they to make their mind. And Chinese territorial integrity is core cause
 

TD739

Junior Member
Registered Member
The way it is now suit me well China got good check on India they can't move India is skin rash but Taiwan is cancer Get your priority straight. No need to waste energy! You can only send some one children, brother and husband to die only for core cause and not for frivolous cause. Time will come when they to make their mind. And Chinese territorial integrity is core cause
I am asking what's after China got back Taiwan.

China would still at a predicament. Territorial issue got solved but strategic difficulties got increased.
 

Chish

Junior Member
Registered Member
Whatever they paid before, Trump wants more.
Yes, they are already paying protection money and political favours, but Trump is forcing/playing to get the maximum dollars out of them, which is understandable and to be expected considering the state of the US economy. The different between Trump and other US Presidents is that Trump speaks out openly, not afraid of insulting its allies.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
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喀喇昆仑卫士 is the verified official weibo account of Xinjiang Military Region

Someone has come forward in China to identify the foreign looking soldier in the singing video. According to the writer 王国鑫 this soldier is an Uyghur named 麦吾兰 who volunteered specifically for service at high altitude. While at training the writer is the squad lead and 麦吾兰 was under his charge. They got chewed out by the brass above specifically due to 麦吾兰's facial hair. 麦吾兰 explained that he can't help it because his facial hair grows extremely quickly. They made a bet that 麦吾兰 could grow longer facial hair in two days than the writer could grow in a week and 麦吾兰 won that bet.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Indian politicians need to play the game though and some of them are obviously going to capitalise or find ways to exploit what's happening. Campaign promises and talk don't guarantee a single thing in democracies.
 

MwRYum

Major
Unfortunate ! They never learn.
His dad the Indian Prime Minister from 1984 to 1989 took on the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka and got blown to smithereens.
Also previously at a guard of honor when visiting Sri Lanka one of the Sri Lankan soldiers stepped out of line and clobbered this Indian Prime minister with his rifle butt. The video is on the internet.
No foreign dignitary has ever been attacked by the guard of honor of the host country. But the Sri Lankans hated his dad.
Then his grandmother also India's Prime Minister in 1984 got sprayed with a Sterling sub-machine gun carried by her own security guard.
How the Gandhi name has fallen...or was it exaggerated to begin with?
I am asking what's after China got back Taiwan.

China would still at a predicament. Territorial issue got solved but strategic difficulties got increased.
Consider that a supercarrier parked off the coast of China, which for the last 100 years (since 1895) put almost all of China's eastern economic-industrial hubs within its strike distance, now belongs to China once more.

Think: a hole tore in the PAVE PAW and SOSUS nets, its strategic depth has just vastly increased.

Nevertheless, the southern (Indian) situation will still very much depend on to what extent Modi going to gamble...
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
If the Indians were going to do something, they would have done it by now. Trying to fight a war in the Himalayas in winter is just pointless. Hell, if India just tries to maintain its current force levels and positions it could set themselves up for further humiliation as they are already struggling to supply their troops. Trying to outlast and our supply China is playing to China’s strengths while massively stretching Indian capabilities. They would be lucky not to loose men to the elements if they tried.

Despite all the Indian wishful thinking in the world, they are no threat to China.

Realistically India would need decades of sustain and massive economic outperform against China, as well as a top-down quantum leap in infrastructure, education and technological development to even come close to being a challenge for China. Basically they need to do what China did to America to China, but they are still stuck in the Cultural Revolution stage, with all bluster and no action.

India wants to be an existential threat to China, but they are at best decades away from having anything close to the means to do so. China know’s India’s intentions, but know they can keep for a few decades. In the meantime China has more pressing priorities to deal with first.
 

lcloo

Captain
It is a lot colder in Russia than the Ladakh. If you are properly dressed and get warm food, can spend 5+ hours in -15 to -20 C no problem. I take my dog snowshoeing in the winter when -15C, and will be out all day. Especially with exercise, it won't feel cold at all.

The problem for India is can they get their troops properly fed (high protein high calorie) diet and layed winter clothing.
The killing factor is the chilling gust of wind. Up in the mountain, strong turbulent air flow is very common. Strong wind dissipated body heat faster, like putting a pot of boiling water in front of a fan, the heat loss is very fast.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
From the Chinese point of view, breaking India to break the Quad is relatively easy. India is already relatively contained because its neighbors hate her, and India's military preparedness is not at the same level China would see in the East Asia Sea in a conflict over Taiwan.

Basically, when others are attempting a containment attempt on you, you strike at the weakest link. India seems to be an easier way to break containment, given the land border, than to go for Taiwan.
In the longer run, breaking up India is an option. However, until China gain the absolute upper hand against the U.S. and the West, I don't think it is a good option. Even if they are just supporting some of the states after breaking up India, it is still money and energy spent that they could use to build up the economy and military that can direct at the Western Pacific. Not to mention now that it will bring the West right up to their door step, so instead of dealing with a bumbling army, now, they are dealing with the U.S. military right on their doorstep. India part of the Quad is pretty nominal anyways. They will not forfeit their sovereignty. Don't get me wrong, they will do it if they have to. For example, if India really form an alliance with the U.S. and invites the U.S. army over, I think they will move to break up the country. Until then, the goal is to minimize their energy spent on this front and focus on the most important front, which is Western Pacific.
 
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