Our Syndicate analysis of Quad meeting in Tokyo,as promised,published by Geopolitca.Russia today..posted here for comments and suggestions:
QUAD OR ASIAN NATO
As Quad assembled the former colonists (US, Australia and Japan) and the good old colony (India), the Western and Indian media went into overdrive against China. India media was actually reminding the foreign minsters gathered in Tokyo to make it a proper military alliance. An interesting comparison of Quad’s combined military potential vis a vis China was discussed on one of the major Indian media platforms, the WION, with a loud voice that it must morph into a military alliance.
We had conducted an analysis of Indo Pacific alliance in a previous article published in Geopolitica.Ru. Even at the cost of repetition, we are covering some extracts of that article as it has become more relevant in the backdrop of Quad meeting held in Tokyo:
Earlier this year in Jan the honourable
Russian foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had conveyed Russian thought to Indian and regional audience in no unequivocal terms that Indo Pacific was a red herring being sold by the West to create cleavage between the Eurasian countries. It may be interesting to dissect the talk by Sergey Lavrov delivered at Raisina Dialogue in Delhi on 15 Jan 2020, as it gives us some insight into how Russia views the shaping of new global order.
Lavrov deliberated that unfortunately the powers against the more democratic and multipolar world are trying to hamper the process of a more open and fair world. Our western friends use the language like International Law less and less and have coined a new word Rule Based World order, this may be dangerous as you are imposing upon others, this makes it harder to deal with global issues of transnational nature, like terrorism, water security, food security, organized crime, bringing weapons to outer space and even weaponising the cyber space.
The gist of Lavarov talk and questions raised by him are posted below:
- He highlighted that many great people are trying to make this region unite and competitive. President Putin during discourse on Russia ASEAN summit talked on Grand Eurasian Space expanding right up to Indonesia and integrating Eurasian Economic Union, ASEAN and SCO and should include all countries in grand Eurasian space. Russia has also promoted Asia Pacific cooperation.
- While deliberating on the Indo Pacific, Lavrov linked it with the jargon of Rule Based World Order, propagated by the West. When we asked about the difference between Asia Pacific strategy and Indo Pacific, the answer is that ‘Indo Pacific is more open and more democratic’.
- It is actually an attempt to reconfigure existing structures in the Eurasian continent and moving from ASEAN centred structure to a divisive one.
- Lavrov talked about Russian efforts to initiate dialogue amongst countries across the Gulf, confidence building measures and more transparency in collective security matters. We must strive for a 21st Century which does not start a new process of Colonialism or Neo Colonialism; sanctions are not going to work.
- While replying to a question from the moderator on Indo Pacific, Lavrov candidly replied that Indo Pacific was mainly meant to contain China and was definitely based on exclusion rather than inclusion.
- Russia would prefer formats which will not divide but unite countries of the region. Think about the term Rule Based International order vs International law, why such divisive jargons are used? If you play with rules of International Law, which is governed by the United Nations, you are actually twisting the existing structures. These terminologies are not benign but substantive and are used to highjack sovereignty of nations and states through a subtle use.
More ironically this so called Indo Pacific Alliance is represented by Western dominated militaries with one addition of India. Technically, in a more subtle way, France and UK are already poised to join the so called Quad, and India may be slipping into this new trap of Neo Colonialism and working against the interest of the region.
Chinese stance is also clear, China regards it as a new great game to create a Rimland around the emerging block of Eurasia and targets Russian and Chinese interests.
Global Times of China came up with a strong statement castigating the US and India with the title, All US' bark and no bite in Quad meeting. It stated that the US, which has signed military alliance treaties with Japan and Australia, now wants to rope India in to boost not only the alliance and to gang up on China. However, such a goal is not easy to realize. India has been buttering its bread on both sides of major power games ever since the Cold War.
Global times goes on to state that India is a country that tends to have higher confidence than its actual strength. Also, New Delhi wishes to become a superpower itself with strong nationalism in its public opinion. India, would only create more challenges rather than help in terms of formalizing a military alliance with any country, as its weapons are created and bought from different countries. If the US wants to count India in its “Asia NATO,” it would need to persuade India to give up its Russia-made weapons and substantially invest to change the standards of Indian firearms to the standards of the US. Substantial amounts of money and work will also be needed to create a modern Indian command system.
To conclude,
the Quad plus is gradually becoming an Asian NATO with an aim of denting the Eurasian brotherhood and fomenting strategic divisions and chaos in the rather calm atmosphere of Pacific and Indian oceans and their littoral states. India, who is part of major Eurasian and Non Eurasian forums like SCO and BRICS is riding two boats which are moving in an opposite direction. Indian choice to prod Quad into an Asian NATO and forge a military alliance has set the stage where the Eurasian nations may have to think about alternatives, may be, without India.