Ladakh Flash Point

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Gatekeeper

Brigadier
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Whenever you see a big global ranking piece, odds are they are just using very very basic nominal dollar per head comparisons, with little or no attempt to correct for PPP/local pricing differences.

So essentially, it’s a flawed comparison as it is not looking at how well people can actually eat in the real world, but rather how well they might be able to eat if they all got paid in dollars and bought all their food in America.

That’s just issues on the pure paper analysis side of things, so of course other more nuanced but arguably more important factors like growing your own food isn’t even considered.

This is an especially important omission for places like China that doesn’t have city slums. Because the overwhelming majority of China’s poorest population live in rural areas and rely on agriculture for their basic income. That means their monetary actual income is effectively net of a huge chunk of their basic annual food consumption. Because if you are a farmer, you are not going to sell all your crops at wholesale prices and then buy those same crops back at retail prices from shops are you? You keep back a proportion of your crops that you are expected to consume and sell what is left. Which means you don’t really need to buy as much food with the money you earned from selling your harvest as someone who lives in a city and rely on shops for nearly 100% of all the food they will consume.

That’s just an obvious major problem with such reports, there are many many others, like benefits in kind, indirect subsidies, positive externalities from infrastructure etc.

As such, even on a best case scenario instance, such reports are at best rough estimates rather than true reflections of reality. But of course, in the real world these reports are often further tainted by the prejudices and biases of authors, or even outright manipulated to suit political, ideological and/or financial motivations and needs.

Personally, I don’t waste my time with them to be honest.

Spot on wolfie. Yes these reports should be taken with a large dash of salt.

But be that as it may, we are here to comment on good security. And they are better reports than that ones around. Also, we have, as our member here did, travelled around and seen things with our own eyes, or have relatives and friends in these countries to provide us with better, more informed information. So we should have a very good grasp of the situation.

But my point is, that even if we take the report on its face value, China, although ranked behind Brazil and Bulgaria. It's still in the safe zone. ( Which is where I expected it to be). And India is in the serious zone (which is also where I expected India to be).
 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member

This guy is an idiot. His entire thesis revolves around the idea that China is afraid of ground combat. China just took a 1000+ km^2 of his claimed territory and his army refused to fight back, and yet, somehow it's the PLA that is afraid of ground combat?! Amazing Bakht logic. 2+2=Elephant

p.s. re: WWII analogies. Quick note: IMO, the Wehrmacht ultimately got defeated by Hitler himself. It was their psycho fuhrer that screwed up Germany's chances, both at an operational and strategic level. If Germany had played its cards right, it would've kept the US out of the European theater (via diplomacy,) knocked the Soviets out (by not adopting random objectives), and eventually landed in Britain after shifting its focus (by learning from the Japanese and focusing on destroying the RN from the air in the channel, instead of trying to knock out the RAF.) But Germany deserved to lose, for appointing Hitler as their leader. The war was over the moment the US entered (mathematically.) The idiocy of Hitler is exemplified by the fact that it was Germany that officially declared war on the US! It's just sad that Hitler now taints the brilliance of the German legacy (and ironic that Indians are so fascinated by the worst part of German history.) There should be a separate thread for this though, there are so many parameters to that discussion that each need to be discussed separately.
 
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Inst

Captain
Gansu, Heilongjiang, and Jilin are the poorest Chinese provinces? Did you somehow forget to consider provinces like Tibet, Xinjiang, Guizhou, and Guangxi which are much much poorer than the three you just described?
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I forgot to mention Guangxi, but Gansu Heilongjiang Jilin are in the bottom 4. Please be current on your statistics and don't act in fabricated outrage when someone brings them up.

Tibet, Xinjiang, and Guizhou are down in the bottom 3; China has a significant inter-provincial wealth disparity. But this was in response to another poster who overstated China's wealth; the effects of the 3:1 ratio is that Jiangsu / Zhejiang / Fujian are 5-10 years away from matching South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan in terms of material prosperity, while the worst performing Chinese provinces are comparable to the best performing Indian States.

Nice try of gaslighting to put India under more favorable (innocent?) light but the part I quoted showed how much you really know...see, for a good part of modern Chinese history (up to pre-1950s at least) the lion share of Chinese industrial output concentrated in the north east, in the region also known as Manchuria, and saying that you've to be utterly ignorant of modern Chinese history to not know it was literally under Japan occupation even before 1937, the year that Japan made its full-scale invasion in our timeline. In other words, ROC, which without a meaningful industrial base of its own, even with those elite formations fully modernized as planned, would not last too long in attrition as IJA and IJN brought its industrially-backed might to bear...under such scenario, defeats and even Nanjing Massacre would still be inevitable, perhaps delayed, but still inevitable.

And today's China? Because it's "not free" so warmongering opinion (ultranationalism) is still very much suppressed, just look at how it played this whole situation down domestically when compare with India's side of fanning the fire should tell you everything. Today's China still all the talk about "recovery" and "get back to work", "enemies are encroaching" is a fact despite Beijing's obvious reluctance to admit but enough of an open knowledge to the masses.

I try to avoid taking sides in nationalistic disputes; doing so is awfully vulgar and results in bad consequences. As for RoC vs Manchukuo, the RoC apparently was upgrading its military systems and had a massive superiority in manpower. Hell, even during the war, the RoC had better artillery than the Japanese, except that military corruption / factionalism prevented the RoC from actually using them with effect. A famous story goes that Stillwell was asking why the RoCA wasn't using its artillery superiority against the Japanese, to which he responded "this or that division has the best artillery in the RoCA. If we were to use it and lose it, we would no longer have the best artillery in the RoCA."

Reading this is a waste 5 minutes of my life that I'll never get back. It's unbelievable naive.

The highlights being comparing provincial China poorest and richest nonsense. In geopolitics it's nothing to do with riches or poorest provinces. China's military strength comes from the aggregate of the nation's wealth.

And as for the growth rates of China and India comparison, you do realised China is 4 times bigger that India's. Right? Even using you figures that India Is going to grow 3% more than China's. At that rate, it would take them at least 40 years to catch up!

Nominally, China is about 4-5 times as strong as India economically. PPP-wise, it's about 3-4 times stronger.

But seriously, when it comes to military force, the logistics favor the Indians on a war on the border due to proximity. If say, the US and China were neighbors (and they are in a way, through the Pacific Ocean), the Chinese would never be able to defeat the United States because you'd have a larger nominal economy and a more advanced military.

However, the tyranny of distance means that Chinese materiel can be moved only a couple of hundred km by land, whereas the United States has to move its assets by sea, imposing costs and creating targets for a PLARF focused on area denial.

In the Sino-Indian case, Tibet is a relatively-poorly linked frontier region, thousands of km away from China's industrial heartland. The Ladakh / Hinachal Pradesh / Sikkim / Arunachel Pradesh borders, in contrast, are closely linked to the Indian heartland, especially the Northern regions that are next to Uttar Pradesh.

The point is, China also sees a similar scenario to the EoJ and Nazi Germany insofar as it needs to get infrastructure up ASAP, because it doesn't matter how strong your military is if you can't get your military on-site; the most dangerous bases to the InA / InAF aren't in Tibet proper, they're in Xinjiang, which has the proximity to seriously threaten the Indian airforce. Likewise, when it comes to basing, the InAF has more bases facing China than China has bases facing India. This is a weakness that has to be remedied while the Indians refuse to grow up and join BRI.
 

Bright Sword

Junior Member
Registered Member
This guy is an idiot. His entire thesis revolves around the idea that China is afraid of ground combat. China just took a 1000+ km^2 of his claimed territory and his army refused to fight back, and yet, somehow it's the PLA that is afraid of ground combat?! Amazing Bakht logic. 2+2=Elephant

p.s. re: WWII analogies. Quick note: IMO, the Wehrmacht ultimately got defeated by Hitler himself. It was their psycho fuhrer that screwed up Germany's chances, both at an operational and strategic level. If Germany had played its cards right, it would've kept the US out of the European theater (via diplomacy,) knocked the Soviets out (by not adopting random objectives), and eventually landed in Britain after shifting its focus (by learning from the Japanese and focusing on destroying the RN from the air in the channel, instead of trying to knock out the RAF.) But Germany deserved to lose, for appointing Hitler as their leader. The war was over the moment the US entered (mathematically.) The idiocy of Hitler is exemplified by the fact that it was Germany that officially declared war on the US! It's just sad that Hitler now taints the brilliance of the German legacy (and ironic that Indians are so fascinated by the worst part of German history.) There should be a separate thread for this though, there are so many parameters to that discussion that each need to be discussed separately.
Wonderful analysis Mohsin !
Here is a question for you which I believe you are in a unique position to answer.
A tiny minority of secular but nationalist Indian academics, retired defense personnel, diplomats, journalists and left wing politicians are advocating the following path to get India out of a difficult two front war scenario.
1. Basically they are advocating the Israeli pattern when Israel struck a deal with Egypt ( Sadat, Rabin, Shimon Peres) returning Sinai for peace, effectively making Israel safer to fight on a single front in Syria, West Bank, and Lebanon. The Camp David accord was brokered by the USA ( Henry Kissinger) and deftly managed by the charismatic Israeli foreign minister Shimon Peres.
2. Similar to the Camp David accord the Indian plan (supported by Gulf countries and the USA) proposes to split Pakistan away from China by offering a deal on Kashmir in exchange for Pakistan reneging on the CPEC thus isolating China.
3.The argument the proponents of this plan make is that China being in a dominant position is not interested in any compromises with India. The diplomatic axiom is that peace happens between a weaker ( or defeated) nation and a stronger nation so it is Pakistan that India must address to strike a deal and then concentrate on a single front ( political, diplomatic, military) to isolate China. The current Pakistan government as well as opposition is very likely to accept the outreach ( or so it is assumed)
4. There are harsh realities however , because the political capital the ruling party has built up in India is based exclusively on an anti-Indian Muslim, Muslim, and anti-Pakistani agenda which is now deeply embedded in the manipulated mindset of the majority Indian population. An outreach to Pakistan even if prudent would be unacceptable to the party ideologues who dream of Indian tanks rolling up the steps of the Faisal mosque in Islamabad. The Prime Minister himself is so extremely anti-Muslim (having overseen a pogrom while in the office of Chief Minister ) that practical and prudent as he is any such option is ruled out. The internal fascist environment so carefully built up over decades cannot be compromised. In view of the RSS which is the supreme ideological boss in India today both China and Pakistan must be fought.
Pakistan being weaker must be destroyed first and then China can be dealt with suitably.

A purely theoretical Question:
Would Pakistan accept a peace deal on Kashmir in exchange for break or downgrade of relations with China?
 
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[witty username]

New Member
Registered Member
Wonderful analysis Mohsin !
Here is a question for you which I believe you are in a unique position to answer.
A tiny minority of secular but nationalist Indian academics, retired defense personnel, diplomats, journalists and left wing politicians are advocating the following path to get India out of a difficult two front war scenario.
1. Basically they are advocating the Israeli pattern when Israel struck a deal with Egypt ( Sadat, Rabin, Shimon Peres) returning Sinai for peace, effectively making Israel safer to fight on a single front in Syria, West Bank, and Lebanon. The Camp David accord was brokered by the USA ( Henry Kissinger) and deftly managed by the charismatic Israeli foreign minister Shimon Peres.
2. Similar to the Camp David accord the Indian plan (supported by Gulf countries and the USA) proposes to split Pakistan away from China by offering a deal on Kashmir in exchange for Pakistan reneging on the CPEC thus isolating China.
3.The argument the proponents of this plan make is that China being in a dominant position is not interested in any compromises with India. The diplomatic axiom is that peace happens between a weaker ( or defeated) nation and a stronger nation so it is Pakistan that India must address to strike a deal and then concentrate on a single front ( political, diplomatic, military) to isolate China. The current Pakistan government as well as opposition is very likely to accept the outreach ( or so it is assumed)
4. There are harsh realities however , because the political capital the ruling party has built up in India is based exclusively on an anti-Indian Muslim, Muslim, and anti-Pakistani agenda which is now deeply embedded in the manipulated mindset of the majority Indian population. An outreach to Pakistan even if prudent would be unacceptable to the party ideologues who dream of Indian tanks rolling up the steps of the Faisal mosque in Islamabad. The Prime Minister himself is so extremely anti-Muslim (having overseen a pogrom while in the office of Chief Minister ) that practical and prudent as he is any such option is ruled out. The internal fascist environment so carefully built up over decades cannot be compromised. In view of the RSS which is the supreme ideological boss in India today both China and Pakistan must be fought.
Pakistan being weaker must be destroyed first and then China can be dealt with suitably.

A purely theoretical Question:
Would Pakistan accept a peace deal on Kashmir in exchange for break or downgrade of relations with China?

In relation to the last question, never. India and Pakistan cannot be taken to be rational actors when dealing with eachother, furthermore even objectively speaking, Pakistan is better off hitching it's wagon on China rather than India due to the former's economic largess and technical expertise.
 

discspinner

Junior Member
Registered Member
Wonderful analysis Mohsin !
Here is a question for you which I believe you are in a unique position to answer.
A tiny minority of secular but nationalist Indian academics, retired defense personnel, diplomats, journalists and left wing politicians are advocating the following path to get India out of a difficult two front war scenario.
1. Basically they are advocating the Israeli pattern when Israel struck a deal with Egypt ( Sadat, Rabin, Shimon Peres) returning Sinai for peace, effectively making Israel safer to fight on a single front in Syria, West Bank, and Lebanon. The Camp David accord was brokered by the USA ( Henry Kissinger) and deftly managed by the charismatic Israeli foreign minister Shimon Peres.
2. Similar to the Camp David accord the Indian plan (supported by Gulf countries and the USA) proposes to split Pakistan away from China by offering a deal on Kashmir in exchange for Pakistan reneging on the CPEC thus isolating China.
3.The argument the proponents of this plan make is that China being in a dominant position is not interested in any compromises with India. The diplomatic axiom is that peace happens between a weaker ( or defeated) nation and a stronger nation so it is Pakistan that India must address to strike a deal and then concentrate on a single front ( political, diplomatic, military) to isolate China. The current Pakistan government as well as opposition is very likely to accept the outreach ( or so it is assumed)
4. There are harsh realities however , because the political capital the ruling party has built up in India is based exclusively on an anti-Indian Muslim, Muslim, and anti-Pakistani agenda which is now deeply embedded in the manipulated mindset of the majority Indian population. An outreach to Pakistan even if prudent would be unacceptable to the party ideologues who dream of Indian tanks rolling up the steps of the Faisal mosque in Islamabad. The Prime Minister himself is so extremely anti-Muslim (having overseen a pogrom while in the office of Chief Minister ) that practical and prudent as he is any such option is ruled out. The internal fascist environment so carefully built up over decades cannot be compromised. In view of the RSS which is the supreme ideological boss in India today both China and Pakistan must be fought.
Pakistan being weaker must be destroyed first and then China can be dealt with suitably.

A purely theoretical Question:
Would Pakistan accept a peace deal on Kashmir in exchange for break or downgrade of relations with China?

India giving up all of Kashmir? : )
 

Bright Sword

Junior Member
Registered Member
Very interesting question. Would be watching what's the answer :-D
Nobonita,
Actually I forgot to add that the additional advantages the rationalists in India tout are the following;
1. Due to cultural and linguistic affinity business relationships are easier and India could offer investment in Pakistan.
(Note: Nobody buys this really. The Urdu Hindi split has drifted so far apart with respective Sankritization and Persianisation that Indian and Pakistanis on the rare occasions they do talk need interpreters to translate. The current Defense Minister Rajnath Singh took an interpreter with him to Pakistan when he visited the country as Home Minister. Likewise Modi had an interpreter when he visited Pakistan briefly, We don't know if the interpreter s translate from Urdu to Hindi or Gujarati to English.).
2. Peace with Pakistan will allow unfettered access to Afghanistan, Iran, Central Asia and the Middle East for Indian goods and business.
(Note: The RSS agrees except that they want a conquered territory that was once "Pakistan ". )
3. More Wild Cards ( comical). Pakistanis could perhaps be persuaded to change their dietary habits, and renounce eating beef because this offensive to Hindus. This would profoundly improve Indian internal security where beef and cow slaughter are causes for repetitive violence such what happened in Bulundshahar UP. in 2018.,
( Note: A sizable section of secular Bangladeshis were deeply grateful for Indian help in their struggle for independence and in 1972 were advocating a reunion and accession with India. Bangladesh badly needed assistance in reconstruction and security following the civil war and they looked to India for economic assistance. For India it was a bonus. The "chickens neck" would no longer be a factor and would have access to its North Eastern states right up to Burma with the ultimate prize being the port of Chittagong, In fact like Sikkim in 1975 the Instrument of Accession was nearly signed. This never happened for a variety of reasons the most important of which was the fact that the politically powerful elite in Calcutta felt they would be swamped into a minority, They resisted the merger. On the Bangladeshi side India's modest demand that Bangladeshis agree to a
a beef ban was greeted with derision.
It was early 1972 when these negotiations were going on with the Indian army still in Dhaka even though now mainly in the barracks with their Bangladeshi allies controlling most of the city. Whether as an act of defiance or not is unknown as of today but the Bangladeshi officers did hold a grand barbecue party "in honor" of their allies. The Indian officers attended sampling only the drinks and snacks.
In any case the accession which would have completely changed the strategic calculus for India's North East today never happened. )
 
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