Ladakh Flash Point

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Bright Sword

Junior Member
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Thing is though, has anyone gotten any 'insider' info about the reason behind China's actions since May? We are guessing things here - QUAD, Indian provocation at the border, rescinding A370 etc. Exactly what prompted China, do we know?
One reason is commonly agreed on though there may be others.
Rescinding A370 and the statement by India's #2 man (the Home Minister) that Aksai Chin would be taken. China feared a threat to the CPEC .
If China fears that Pakistan is unable to protect the CPEC alone it is probable that China would move troops into Giligit Baltistan on the "invitation " of Pakistan.
 

MwRYum

Major
... If the EoJ had hit China later, the RoC military modernization would have been in a stronger position and instead of Chiang's elite divisions getting wiped out at Shanghai the RoC would have had more elite divisions ready to further slow the Japanese advance, or even repel them altogether.
Nice try of gaslighting to put India under more favorable (innocent?) light but the part I quoted showed how much you really know...see, for a good part of modern Chinese history (up to pre-1950s at least) the lion share of Chinese industrial output concentrated in the north east, in the region also known as Manchuria, and saying that you've to be utterly ignorant of modern Chinese history to not know it was literally under Japan occupation even before 1937, the year that Japan made its full-scale invasion in our timeline. In other words, ROC, which without a meaningful industrial base of its own, even with those elite formations fully modernized as planned, would not last too long in attrition as IJA and IJN brought its industrially-backed might to bear...under such scenario, defeats and even Nanjing Massacre would still be inevitable, perhaps delayed, but still inevitable.

And today's China? Because it's "not free" so warmongering opinion (ultranationalism) is still very much suppressed, just look at how it played this whole situation down domestically when compare with India's side of fanning the fire should tell you everything. Today's China still all the talk about "recovery" and "get back to work", "enemies are encroaching" is a fact despite Beijing's obvious reluctance to admit but enough of an open knowledge to the masses.
 

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
Well actually the mindset is more like Germany looking at the Soviet Union and having mistaken its war potential.
Germany's evaluation was based off the Soviet Union's marginal performance in Finland ( Winter War 1940) and at Khalkin Gol ( Japan, 1938). This led the world and Germany to believe that the Soviets were a pushover. The Germans claimed a battle hardened modern lean and mean tough fighting force with state of the art weapons; numerically less than the defending Soviet Army but entirely capable of defeating them. There was some truth in their claim but the Germans made a dangerous mistake underestimating the will and determination of the Soviet people in defending their land and their capacity for taking punishment and sacrifice.
Ironically it is exactly this kind of thinking that is being propagated by Indian manipulated media being quietly encouraged by their Western counterparts.
Line of thinking and propagation of myths:
1. The Chinese are not battle hardened and experienced as the Indian armed forces. They performed poorly against Vietnam in 1979 and even their so-called victory against India in 1962 is qualified because they ultimately retreated to their previous positions because they had poor logistics. In short they are no match for India.
2. Chinese weapons are unreliable, untested and poor copies of their western counterparts. Indian weapons are modern and state of the art tried and tested by the western military in various theaters of war globally.
In short. India has a supreme equipment and weapons advantage.

3. India enjoys tactical advantage because of cold mountainous terrain which is familiar to Indian troops and where they are used to the climate.
( Note: Despite the fact that 80% of India is either hot or humid and 90% of Indians have very low tolerance to cold weather considering the deaths when temperatures are around 5 C).
4. Indians are brave and have defeated numerically superior Chinese forces in combat in a ratio of 1:10 inflicting heavy casualties
In short Indian soldiers are supermen.

It is dangerous myths such as these that builds public opinion in favor of a war that snowballs out of control.
I like your comparison of BJP India today with Nazi Germany. There are certainly some ugly similarities with their racism, jingoism, and militancy. However, their similarities end there.

There are fundamental differences between India today and Nazi Germany in the 1930's:
1) BJP India today, have nothing of the competence of Nazi Germany. Nazi Germany for all their ugliness, built great projects and infrastructures like the: Olympiastadion, Tempelhof Airport, Autobahn, etc.
2) Nazi Germany inherited many brilliant minds and technologies of the former German Empire. By the 1930s they had world-beating technologies like the Haber process, rocketry, engines, coal-liquefaction, etc.
India OTOH could not keep most of its smartest people in the country. And they have practically zero indigenous world-beating technologies.
3) Nazi Germany had a powerful military industrial complex. Not as powerful as the USA and Soviet Union. But powerful enough to Blitz Western Europe and give the Americans, Brits, and Soviets a good fight.
India have nothing equivalent to the military industrial complex of Nazi Germany. It has to rely on imports of military equipment, especially modern ones. India has no realistic chance of fighting a major conventional war with campaigns lasting into months and years.
4) Nazi Germany is very influential. Able to form and lead an Axis alliance with many like minded fascist countries. India have nothing of that kind of influence. They are hated by their neighbors, and practically no county look up to India as a role model. India have also become a dog to the Western powers.

Its ironic that China looks more like the Nazi Germany minus the evil fascism. Against India, China enjoys greater diplomatic clout, technology superiority, economic might, and military might. India OTOH is acting more like a mistress. Demanding Russia to choose it over China, and at the same time seducing the USA for favors.

India today is akin to a third world country pretending to be a superpower. Perhaps the closest thing I can compare with India today is Argentina under Leopoldo Galtieri. Different type of geo-politics, and no hot war yet. But the circumstances are quite similar.

1) By 1982, Argentina had imported lots of modern Western military equipment. And they happen to have a territorial dispute with Great Britain: Falklands Islands. Coincidentally, Argentina in 1982 was also a big buyer of French modern armaments (Exocet, Super Etendard, Mirage III, etc) just like India today.
2) Right before the Falklands War, Galtieri's government was in trouble with the public, due to Argentina going through an economic crisis. So, like India today, Galtieri's Argentina turned to settle the Falklands dispute militarily, in order to rally public support.
3) The Galtieri junta calculated that they had local superiority over Falklands. And Britain under Thatcher is undergoing its own political problems, would not risk a long naval voyage to defend it. So they could score a quick victory over Great Britain.
4) Yes, Argentina did hurt the Royal Navy and Marines with Exocets, but the French later froze further exports of the weapons to them. And Argentina quickly ran out of these wonder weapons.
5) Argentina ground troops have numerical and local superiority over the Royal Marines. But they lack training and morale. They quickly capitulated to the smaller numbers of Royal Marines despite having military odds in their favour.

The Falklands War ended in humiliating defeat for the Argentinians, and Galtieri's junta was ousted from power. This is the fate that awaits India if they go to war against China over this border dispute. India could bloody China's nose in some specific battles, but China would cripple India in the entire war.
 

Nobonita Barua

Senior Member
Registered Member
Selling missiles is one thing but selling nukes? Nope, not even in the 1980s when China have their first taste of capitalism - Saudi bought like 30+ DF-3 (conventionally tipped, of course) and the payment made by Saudis injected quite a tidy some of foreign currency.
LOL, i know. Just saying it could have made world of difference considering whats going on there.
 

Nobonita Barua

Senior Member
Registered Member
I like your comparison of BJP India today with Nazi Germany. There are certainly some ugly similarities with their racism, jingoism, and militancy. However, their similarities end there.

There are fundamental differences between India today and Nazi Germany in the 1930's:
1) BJP India today, have nothing of the competence of Nazi Germany. Nazi Germany for all their ugliness, built great projects and infrastructures like the: Olympiastadion, Tempelhof Airport, Autobahn, etc.
2) Nazi Germany inherited many brilliant minds and technologies of the former German Empire. By the 1930s they had world-beating technologies like the Haber process, rocketry, engines, coal-liquefaction, etc.
India OTOH could not keep most of its smartest people in the country. And they have practically zero indigenous world-beating technologies.
3) Nazi Germany had a powerful military industrial complex. Not as powerful as the USA and Soviet Union. But powerful enough to Blitz Western Europe and give the Americans, Brits, and Soviets a good fight.
India have nothing equivalent to the military industrial complex of Nazi Germany. It has to rely on imports of military equipment, especially modern ones. India has no realistic chance of fighting a major conventional war with campaigns lasting into months and years.
4) Nazi Germany is very influential. Able to form and lead an Axis alliance with many like minded fascist countries. India have nothing of that kind of influence. They are hated by their neighbors, and practically no county look up to India as a role model. India have also become a dog to the Western powers.

Its ironic that China looks more like the Nazi Germany minus the evil fascism. Against India, China enjoys greater diplomatic clout, technology superiority, economic might, and military might. India OTOH is acting more like a mistress. Demanding Russia to choose it over China, and at the same time seducing the USA for favors.

India today is akin to a third world country pretending to be a superpower. Perhaps the closest thing I can compare with India today is Argentina under Leopoldo Galtieri. Different type of geo-politics, and no hot war yet. But the circumstances are quite similar.

1) By 1982, Argentina had imported lots of modern Western military equipment. And they happen to have a territorial dispute with Great Britain: Falklands Islands. Coincidentally, Argentina in 1982 was also a big buyer of French modern armaments (Exocet, Super Etendard, Mirage III, etc) just like India today.
2) Right before the Falklands War, Galtieri's government was in trouble with the public, due to Argentina going through an economic crisis. So, like India today, Galtieri's Argentina turned to settle the Falklands dispute militarily, in order to rally public support.
3) The Galtieri junta calculated that they had local superiority over Falklands. And Britain under Thatcher is undergoing its own political problems, would not risk a long naval voyage to defend it. So they could score a quick victory over Great Britain.
4) Yes, Argentina did hurt the Royal Navy and Marines with Exocets, but the French later froze further exports of the weapons to them. And Argentina quickly ran out of these wonder weapons.
5) Argentina ground troops have numerical and local superiority over the Royal Marines. But they lack training and morale. They quickly capitulated to the smaller numbers of Royal Marines despite having military odds in their favour.

The Falklands War ended in humiliating defeat for the Argentinians, and Galtieri's junta was ousted from power. This is the fate that awaits India if they go to war against China over this border dispute. India could bloody China's nose in some specific battles, but China would cripple India in the entire war.
You for got the crown jewel of all . Fission of Atom.
WW2 was basically fight in between 2 most technologically advanced country at that time. Nazi & British empire.

Indians like to compare themselves with everything that could make them look a bit tough than what they are.
 

[witty username]

New Member
Registered Member
Well actually the mindset is more like Germany looking at the Soviet Union and having mistaken its war potential.
Germany's evaluation was based off the Soviet Union's marginal performance in Finland ( Winter War 1940) and at Khalkin Gol ( Japan, 1938). This led the world and Germany to believe that the Soviets were a pushover. The Germans claimed a battle hardened modern lean and mean tough fighting force with state of the art weapons; numerically less than the defending Soviet Army but entirely capable of defeating them. There was some truth in their claim but the Germans made a dangerous mistake underestimating the will and determination of the Soviet people in defending their land and their capacity for taking punishment and sacrifice.
Ironically it is exactly this kind of thinking that is being propagated by Indian manipulated media being quietly encouraged by their Western counterparts.
Line of thinking and propagation of myths:
1. The Chinese are not battle hardened and experienced as the Indian armed forces. They performed poorly against Vietnam in 1979 and even their so-called victory against India in 1962 is qualified because they ultimately retreated to their previous positions because they had poor logistics. In short they are no match for India.
2. Chinese weapons are unreliable, untested and poor copies of their western counterparts. Indian weapons are modern and state of the art tried and tested by the western military in various theaters of war globally.
In short. India has a supreme equipment and weapons advantage.

3. India enjoys tactical advantage because of cold mountainous terrain which is familiar to Indian troops and where they are used to the climate.
( Note: Despite the fact that 80% of India is either hot or humid and 90% of Indians have very low tolerance to cold weather considering the deaths when temperatures are around 5 C).
4. Indians are brave and have defeated numerically superior Chinese forces in combat in a ratio of 1:10 inflicting heavy casualties
In short Indian soldiers are supermen.

It is dangerous myths such as these that builds public opinion in favor of a war that snowballs out of control.

I have read alternate theses by the likes of Victor Suvorov that the Soviet Union were planning to attack Germany in 1941 anyway, Hitler thought that the sooner Germany attacked, the better it would be for Germany as the military gap between the USSR and Germany was widening with each passing month.

You may have heard of Stalin's episode of psychosis during Operation Barbarossa but this was less to do with that fact that the Germans had invaded and more to do with the fact of how well they performed in the initial months of the offensive, the Soviets took some time to get their house in order, and Stalin had to take extreme measures to achieve this goal such as ordering a scorched earth policy.

In fact a lot of the deaths attributed to the Germans during the Second World War in the Eastern Front seem to have been the result of Stalin's extreme but rational measures to defend Moscow at all costs.

But coming back to to the current day, I fail to understand what India has to gain from offensive measures against China?

For all the chest thumping on the Indian media, the Indian establishment are likely aware of the vast chasm between the two nations in the capacity for waging a sustained war, so surely it would be more likely that China made the first move?
 

Bright Sword

Junior Member
Registered Member
I like your comparison of BJP India today with Nazi Germany. There are certainly some ugly similarities with their racism, jingoism, and militancy. However, their similarities end there.

There are fundamental differences between India today and Nazi Germany in the 1930's:
1) BJP India today, have nothing of the competence of Nazi Germany. Nazi Germany for all their ugliness, built great projects and infrastructures like the: Olympiastadion, Tempelhof Airport, Autobahn, etc.
2) Nazi Germany inherited many brilliant minds and technologies of the former German Empire. By the 1930s they had world-beating technologies like the Haber process, rocketry, engines, coal-liquefaction, etc.
India OTOH could not keep most of its smartest people in the country. And they have practically zero indigenous world-beating technologies.
3) Nazi Germany had a powerful military industrial complex. Not as powerful as the USA and Soviet Union. But powerful enough to Blitz Western Europe and give the Americans, Brits, and Soviets a good fight.
India have nothing equivalent to the military industrial complex of Nazi Germany. It has to rely on imports of military equipment, especially modern ones. India has no realistic chance of fighting a major conventional war with campaigns lasting into months and years.
4) Nazi Germany is very influential. Able to form and lead an Axis alliance with many like minded fascist countries. India have nothing of that kind of influence. They are hated by their neighbors, and practically no county look up to India as a role model. India have also become a dog to the Western powers.

Its ironic that China looks more like the Nazi Germany minus the evil fascism. Against India, China enjoys greater diplomatic clout, technology superiority, economic might, and military might. India OTOH is acting more like a mistress. Demanding Russia to choose it over China, and at the same time seducing the USA for favors.

India today is akin to a third world country pretending to be a superpower. Perhaps the closest thing I can compare with India today is Argentina under Leopoldo Galtieri. Different type of geo-politics, and no hot war yet. But the circumstances are quite similar.

1) By 1982, Argentina had imported lots of modern Western military equipment. And they happen to have a territorial dispute with Great Britain: Falklands Islands. Coincidentally, Argentina in 1982 was also a big buyer of French modern armaments (Exocet, Super Etendard, Mirage III, etc) just like India today.
2) Right before the Falklands War, Galtieri's government was in trouble with the public, due to Argentina going through an economic crisis. So, like India today, Galtieri's Argentina turned to settle the Falklands dispute militarily, in order to rally public support.
3) The Galtieri junta calculated that they had local superiority over Falklands. And Britain under Thatcher is undergoing its own political problems, would not risk a long naval voyage to defend it. So they could score a quick victory over Great Britain.
4) Yes, Argentina did hurt the Royal Navy and Marines with Exocets, but the French later froze further exports of the weapons to them. And Argentina quickly ran out of these wonder weapons.
5) Argentina ground troops have numerical and local superiority over the Royal Marines. But they lack training and morale. They quickly capitulated to the smaller numbers of Royal Marines despite having military odds in their favour.

The Falklands War ended in humiliating defeat for the Argentinians, and Galtieri's junta was ousted from power. This is the fate that awaits India if they go to war against China over this border dispute. India could bloody China's nose in some specific battles, but China would cripple India in the entire war.
Couldn't agree with you more.
Yes, India's fascists are pale counterparts of their Nazi progenitors.
They are also far more corrupt. The Germans were able to achieve successes such as building the Autobahn and a robust telecommunications network because
of very accountable and financially ethical Ministries. For all his faults Albert Speer was a great minister and an outstanding engineer.
Would like to know your views on the following situations and the state of mind and delusions being propagated by the Indian media.
1. The politicization of India's military top brass. Not entirely at the Nazi level but certainly far more than previously known. Military decisions can now be taken over and above professional advice by competent military experts. This is another similarity with Nazi Germany where later in the war competent generals like Rommel and Von Paulus were sidelined in favor of SS party stalwarts. Strategic and military decisions were taken which ultimately proved disastrous to Germany. Similarly the ideological wing of the BJP which is the RSS has a large membership of ex-service personnel. So far the Indian laws ban direct membership by serving officials but that is merely a fig leaf. RSS sympathizers are numerous abd deeply embedded in the defense apparatus though they are currently balanced somewhat by the secular legacy officials.,
2. The propagation and assumptions of myths about China and its fighting capabilities.Some of these have been discussed in earlier posts. The latest being propagated by Indian media are the following:
2.1 China will never engage in ground war like in 1962 because two generations of Chinese have had a one child policy and China has a low military manpower resource unable to take casualties.
2.2. Countries high on the prosperity and quality of living index avoid ground combat for fear of casualties and China has a higher per capita income as compared to India. So China will not risk casualties whereas India can, The analogy being made is with Afghanistan where the USA was unwilling to sustain further casualties and withdrew. In short India has more manpower resources and can take casualties to fight and defeat China.,
2.3 China has no experience supporting troops at altitude and in cold weather. It cannot sustain its logistics for long. China desperately wants a border settlement with India because it cannot sustain the stand off.
In short: Now that China is on the backfoot India should press home and seize all the territories it claims. China won't fight because it can neither sustain casualties nor can it support its troops in cold weather conditions. A Chinese retreat to the Indian defined borders is inevitable.
2.4. India should press home its advantage and advance to "liberate" Tibet and advance further to "liberate " Xinjiang. Shades of 1971 East Pakistan.,
 

[witty username]

New Member
Registered Member
Couldn't agree with you more.
Yes, India's fascists are pale counterparts of their Nazi progenitors.
They are also far more corrupt. The Germans were able to achieve successes such as building the Autobahn and a robust telecommunications network because
of very accountable and financially ethical Ministries. For all his faults Albert Speer was a great minister and an outstanding engineer.
Would like to know your views on the following situations and the state of mind and delusions being propagated by the Indian media.
1. The politicization of India's military top brass. Not entirely at the Nazi level but certainly far more than previously known. Military decisions can now be taken over and above professional advice by competent military experts. This is another similarity with Nazi Germany where later in the war competent generals like Rommel and Von Paulus were sidelined in favor of SS party stalwarts. Strategic and military decisions were taken which ultimately proved disastrous to Germany. Similarly the ideological wing of the BJP which is the RSS has a large membership of ex-service personnel. So far the Indian laws ban direct membership by serving officials but that is merely a fig leaf. RSS sympathizers are numerous abd deeply embedded in the defense apparatus though they are currently balanced somewhat by the secular legacy officials.,
2. The propagation and assumptions of myths about China and its fighting capabilities.Some of these have been discussed in earlier posts. The latest being propagated by Indian media are the following:
2.1 China will never engage in ground war like in 1962 because two generations of Chinese have had a one child policy and China has a low military manpower resource unable to take casualties.
2.2. Countries high on the prosperity and quality of living index avoid ground combat for fear of casualties and China has a higher per capita income as compared to India. So China will not risk casualties whereas India can, The analogy being made is with Afghanistan where the USA was unwilling to sustain further casualties and withdrew. In short India has more manpower resources and can take casualties to fight and defeat China.,
2.3 China has no experience supporting troops at altitude and in cold weather. It cannot sustain its logistics for long. China desperately wants a border settlement with India because it cannot sustain the stand off.
In short: Now that China is on the backfoot India should press home and seize all the territories it claims. China won't fight because it can neither sustain casualties nor can it support its troops in cold weather conditions. A Chinese retreat to the Indian defined borders is inevitable.
2.4. India should press home its advantage and advance to "liberate" Tibet and advance further to "liberate " Xinjiang. Shades of 1971 East Pakistan.,

India has lost quite a bit of territory in Ladakh over the last few decades to the Chinese apparently, what is the reason the two nations have not come to an agreement in regards to a permanent and well-defined border?
 

Bright Sword

Junior Member
Registered Member
India has lost quite a bit of territory in Ladakh over the last few decades to the Chinese apparently, what is the reason the two nations have not come to an agreement in regards to a permanent and well-defined border?
China had made a minimal claim line in 1959 which India rejected.
India stands by its colonial legacy which it inherited from the British who arbitrarily drew the borders ( McMahon and Johnson lines) deep north and north east into China. India claims that China ( or what was China then ) accepted these boundaries in 1914.
China does not accept a colonial legacy imposed on two weak nations both ruled by an imperial power ( now defunct).,
 

[witty username]

New Member
Registered Member
China had made a minimal claim line in 1959 which India rejected.
India stands by its colonial legacy which it inherited from the British who arbitrarily drew the borders ( McMahon and Johnson lines) deep north and north east into China. India claims that China ( or what was China then ) accepted these boundaries in 1914.
China does not accept a colonial legacy imposed on two weak nations both ruled by an imperial power ( now defunct).,

What is the current state of play, as in what line is China willing to accept. Would China accept the current line (or thereabouts) if India have up its claim in Aksai Chin?
 
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