New PLA air base/infrastructure development in Tibet. The Indians should have thought twice about Doklam.
Ladakh Flash Point
- Thread starter Mt1701d
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Agree entirely. For a small number of highly competent and professional defense personnel your premise holds true. However the political and hyper jingoistic scenario in India today is a lot less rational than say India in 1972 post the India Pakistan war. Then the political leadership listened to the advice of their senior defense staff Example: The Indian COAS advised the government that it would be prudent to accept the UN security council resolution and accept a ceasefire. An offensive in West Pakistan was untenable, and a capitulation similar to the one in Eastern sector was not feasible. Continuing the offensive against bitter resistance into Pakistan would mean at least 250,000 Indian fatalities in short term. There would be a long term festering insurgency, even if the Pakistani defense apparatus collapsed and there was full occupation of Pakistan ( as happened in Iraq decades later).
A ceasefire was declared and a summit meeting ( Simla summit) was held to resolve issues.
Today is no longer that era,
If statements by retired Indian generals are any indication, there appears to be a toxic mix of religious bigotry and irrational jingoism that has permeated into some of the senior defense staff as never seen before.
In the past all the Indian armed forces senior generals (except for one general who joined the Sikh militant movement), have remained publicly irreligious and secular, even with respect to Pakistan with which the religious schism is obvious. Of late however we have seen the case of a particular retired general accuse the PLA of defiling the sacred Lake Mansarovar and Mount Kailash by placing surface to air missile assets there. He calls for liberating these areas. This is significant in many respects, This general otherwise a shrill critic of Pakistan on TV shows calling for "teaching Pakistan a lesson " has never used a religious card against Pakistan and merely condemns Pakistan for "terror". He even goes on Pakistani television channels and presents the Indian view point and chats with his Pakistani retired army counterparts. Raising the Mount Kailash defilement strikes a chord amongst the Indian masses who revere the god Lord Shiva and Mount Kailash is supposed to be his abode. This is a very emotional issue which may mobilize public opinion.
It is precisely when religious fanaticism, hyper nationalism and a false emotional grievance is mixed together that an irrational and unprofessional decision is taken.
It is inevitable that the senior Indian Air Force commanders were fully aware of the capabilities of the Pakistan Air Force and knew the risks of carrying out a one time limited air strike (instead of an Israeli style long drawn attrition to permanently degrade). Yet in February 2019 they agreed to carry out the strike on the demand of the political establishment, The results were certainly not as was expected or desired.
Bottom line:
The risk of war due to a coerced or jingoistic environment is certainly significant. Much more so than before. The religious element being inducted into the Chinese equation is ominous.
MwRYum
Major
But you can't deny the obvious desire for all-out war exhibited by Indians, no? Let's see how you'd assure us here that what we've seen all over Youtube/Twitter/Facebook/Instagram are "false bravado"?
As far as Chinese are concern, Indians' unamious desire for war is genuine enough, and it's frustrating that Beijing still refuse to match the escalation as seen from the other side.
Of course India wants a war, they want this whole thing to be over with. China on the other hand, does NOT want this thing to be over too soon. China wants to tie up as much Indian resources and attentions to the plateau area. All this is to drain resources that could go into the Indian Navy. This is what I believe is happening, and this is a very smart strategic move by China.
The Quad can only meaningful challenge and contain China if they manage to concentrate resources on navy, and drag out the PLAN away from the cover of PLAAF and Strategic Rocket Force on the high seas. Even if the PLAN became really big and powerful, it will be a war of attrition if the PLAN has to confront the allied and combine forces of the Quad in a cat and mouse game, far from home shore and in the vicinity of Australia or in the Indian Ocean.
Since China is the largest trading nation in the world. If the Quad resort to harassment/pirate-style-raiding warfare on Chinese merchant fleets, it will drain a lot of PLAN resources having to escort that giant horde of Chinese merchant fleets. Japan is far away from the main maritime trade route of China, Australia is simply too small population wise. India, on the other hand, will be the main work=horse of this kind of guerrilla-harassment navy warfare. So it is good for China to have some land warfare leverage on India.
This is all the more reason why Type 055 need ship based AShBM, to give it a 1,000km no go zone around it wherever it goes.
MwRYum
Major
For one, New Delhi's problem is that it's too close to the northern border. Mumbai would be better geographically wise in that regard.
And then there's India's naval modernization - its primary problem lies not in the resources and budget, but India's industrial capability to put ships to sea in the pace comparable to that of China's, or perhaps the seemingly lacking thereof.
I have traveled extensively , by car, in these three countries. My comments are valid.
MwRYum
Major
That'd require a new booster rocket that can fit into the VLS system of Type 055.
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