Ladakh Flash Point

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Breadbox

Breadbox

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The internal opposition parties in India must be having a field day, accusing Modi and his cabinet as ‘traitors and cowards’, use the angry crowd to edge India into a shooting war.

All possible scenarios benefit the opposition:
-Doesn’t start a war: Proves that current leaders weak and sellouts

-Start a war: Loses : The current leaders in charge bear all the responsibility, the credibility of current leaders are severely damaged.

-Start a war: Draw/Win : The brave opposition spoke up against the cowardly and dithering establishment, Opposition popularity soars.

The only possible scenario that allows India’s current leaders to mitigate the damage is for them to negotiate a heavily favourable treaty. Which I’m pretty China rather not hand it to the BJP, China has its own angry nationalists to placate.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Breadbox said:
The internal opposition parties in India must be having a field day, accusing Modi and his cabinet as ‘traitors and cowards’, use the angry crowd to edge India into a shooting war.

All possible scenarios benefit the opposition:
-Doesn’t start a war: Proves that current leaders weak and sellouts

-Start a war: Loses : The current leaders in charge bear all the responsibility, the credibility of current leaders are severely damaged.

-Start a war: Draw/Win : The brave opposition spoke up against the cowardly and dithering establishment, Opposition popularity soars.

The only possible scenario that allows India’s current leaders to mitigate the damage is for them to negotiate a heavily favourable treaty. Which I’m pretty China rather not hand it to the BJP, China has its own angry nationalists to placate.
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If they go to war and win, no one would be giving a shred of credit to the oppositions.

The BJP's strategy here is to make it sound like they will fight the war unless their demands are met, won't actually fight for a while, and then tell the Indian public their demands were met and that's why they are not going to war. No one knows that area well or visit it daily to call the BJP out. Even the months long confusion was caused by BJP's constant denial there is anything even happening, followed by their fake stories of PLA retreats every week. Now we know all those were Indians lies and there is indeed PLA presence up to the points where China claims.

The Indian leadership can and will silence any call for accountability. The Rafale audit fiasco proved their entire system is as corrupt as history's worst offenders of decent government. Lol the investigation was thrown out without any good reason. Rest assured, India's government will do everything it can to avoid actually fighting, while telling the whole world they aren't afraid of fighting. All CCP needs to do is carry on ignoring their warnings of "military options". They'll soon come up with another unilateral declaration, this will be something just believable enough and very ambiguous in detail. And of course CCP will do nothing to debunk them because it serves China no purpose to call the BJP out for lies. CCP has done nothing to call the BJP lies so far so why would they start when they've secured the land?
 
Breadbox

Breadbox

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ougoah said:
If they go to war and win, no one would be giving a shred of credit to the oppositions.

The BJP's strategy here is to make it sound like they will fight the war unless their demands are met, won't actually fight for a while, and then tell the Indian public their demands were met and that's why they are not going to war. No one knows that area well or visit it daily to call the BJP out. Even the months long confusion was caused by BJP's constant denial there is anything even happening, followed by their fake stories of PLA retreats every week. Now we know all those were Indians lies and there is indeed PLA presence up to the points where China claims.

The Indian leadership can and will silence any call for accountability. The Rafale audit fiasco proved their entire system is as corrupt as history's worst offenders of decent government. Lol the investigation was thrown out without any good reason. Rest assured, India's government will do everything it can to avoid actually fighting, while telling the whole world they aren't afraid of fighting. All CCP needs to do is carry on ignoring their warnings of "military options". They'll soon come up with another unilateral declaration, this will be something just believable enough and very ambiguous in detail. And of course CCP will do nothing to debunk them because it serves China no purpose to call the BJP out for lies. CCP has done nothing to call the BJP lies so far so why would they start when they've secured the land?
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That’s honestly the best possible scenario(in reality) for both sides, I hope what you are saying is true.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
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The alternative is Indian leaders actually decide to go for the war option, either being pushed by the combination of public encouragement and opposition noise or the very remote possibility the guys in charge actually think so highly of their military or possibly with foreign coercion and military support. Most silent observers are obviously keen for this to happen... including the bhakts. If only these orange panty wearing dimwits are on the frontlines to get cut up by PLA steel while they scream Jai Hind.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
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Breadbox said:
That’s honestly the best possible scenario(in reality) for both sides, I hope what you are saying is true.
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This is how BJP will go about defusing the situation for themselves. There will be no India-China war. The real war CCP will be/is engaging in is how to work against India using non-military means since India will not engage and it has already started firing trade war shots but failing spectacularly. Long term, India could actually pick itself up and make it work for them but so far they're no action, talk only. Well action being limited to telling everyone how they will rape Chinese and ban them from entering Indian hotels lol... oh and burning Chinese flags.
 
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BoggedDown

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In my opinion China should not have open ware fare with India unless India attack first. A war with India may be easy win for China most probably but a tremendous loss in soft power in world over. So instead China should pursue covert war with India by instigating ongoing separatist secessionist movements and freedom struggles in Kashmir and north east regions like Mizoram, Tripura, Nagaland, Assam etc. So to keep it busy wasting resource in internal conflict instead of taking part in China containment policy. No matter how formidable defense Indian can muster with help of USA in Indo-Pacific sea but himalaya is its weak point and no one can help them much there. In fact China has already apply this method in Nepal using mao guerrillas to bring down the hindu king which was the staunch ally of India. With few billion of investments China can cut India in sizes and weaken it considerably within few years.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Mohsin77 said:
I'll argue that this is isn't actually a problem, but rather an opportunity for the PLA's SSF and SRF to battle test their capabilities and systems in a relatively low-risk theater. China doesn't need to advertise the full range of its capabilities, but it certainly will be able to test key aspects of those capabilities in a real conflict.

Let me make a case for the above, using the Gulf War as a case-study, because it is very relevant to your concern. The US did indeed go overboard in 1991, which is its swiftest military victory (and possibly it's last.) The US utilized every advantage it had, short of nuclear weapons, for 43 days, crippling Iraq before the ground war even began, and then it vaporized the Iraqi Army in a 100 hours. In doing so, the US 'revealed its hand' and this allowed China and Russia to immediately begin developing counters to those systems. Why did the US do this? For two reasons:

  1. Due to the humiliation it suffered in Vietnam and the rebuild of its military following that conflict.
  2. It did so with the expectation that its upward R&D trajectory would continue.

But the US sabotaged that trajectory itself, because of the 'Peace Dividend' following the end of the Cold War. It began cancelling its most effective programs, like the F-22 and the Sea Wolf submarine etc. (There were also many other systemic problems, but let's ignore those.) If the US had continued on its R&D trajectory, and not gotten bogged down in the 'war on terror' afterwards, 'revealing its hand' in Gulf War wouldn't have mattered, because its tech+tactics would have evolved considerably further by now, and many more of those systems would be in operation today. Most of what worked in 1991 against Iraq, wouldn't work today against China anyway. Therefore, it's not necessary that China will lose much of an advantage by testing its systems against India, as long as it continues its upward R&D trajectory. And the data the PLA gathers from the battlefield will be invaluable to further develop and evolve those capabilities, which it may need against the US in the future.
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I did point out in an earlier post that I expect the PLA to battle test as much of their new capabilities as possible if there is an actual hot war.

However, I think it will do so in a very passive (as in passive detection methods) and secretive way, so we are unlikely to get any actual information on any of it happening in none kinetic fields like EW and jamming etc.

But cyberspace might be an area deemed off limits, because there are no geographical boarders.

There is a good chance Indian systems would already be riddled with American and western spyware, as we have a well established pattern of such behaviour from the Americans. Even if Indian systems were relatively clean to start with, as soon as the shooting starts you can bet spyware from all major powers would be rushing in to get first hand intel on Chinese capabilities.

As such, there is a good chance any cyberwarfare assets and capabilities deployed against India would be detected by hostile powers.

Indeed, there might be a multi-party free for all within the Indian network without the Indians even being aware of it.

But the point being that it will be much harder to conduct live tests against the Indians in the cyber realm than other fields given the nature of the internet.

What more, there isn’t really much need to wait until there is a war to test out cyberwarfare capabilities. That can be done pretty much any time anyone wants. But all of this is just conjecture, and there will be no way for anyone to prove any of it, so it would make for a rather fruitless discussion subject.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
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BoggedDown said:
In my opinion China should not have open ware fare with India unless India attack first. A war with India may be easy win for China most probably but a tremendous loss in soft power in world over. So instead China should pursue covert war with India by instigating ongoing separatist secessionist movements and freedom struggles in Kashmir and north east regions like Mizoram, Tripura, Nagaland, Assam etc. So to keep it busy wasting resource in internal conflict instead of taking part in China containment policy. No matter how formidable defense Indian can muster with help of USA in Indo-Pacific sea but himalaya is its weak point and no one can help them much there. In fact China has already apply this method in Nepal using mao guerrillas to bring down the hindu king which was the staunch ally of India. With few billion of investments China can cut India in sizes and weaken it considerably within few years.
Click to expand...

This is a huge misunderstanding of so called soft power. When the Americans lament about PRC's soft power, they refer invariably to its economic influence and ability to exploit its industrial power to promise access to its market, its industries, and prosperity for partners. This differs from western soft power which is the whole freedom, democracy, good vibes, and better morality spiel. China has ZEEEEERO softpower here. It's been constantly eroded and taken away by western propaganda e.g. Pandas in Chinese enclosures during vet exams, "oohhhh CCP so bhed they dont gib space for bears"... Russian zoos where lions are paraded for entertainment, "hahaha only Russians can be this tough to play with lions". There is no way to deprogram the developed world who were brought up on luxuries the rest have only seen on hollywood movies. They are uncompromising in attitude and too shallow minded to think things through without bias. There is no hope for PRC softpower for the foreseeable future. For them, you have to transform into perfection (their standard and definition of it) overnight or either have your crimes ignored (e.g. Israel, Saudi Arabia, African nations, India!) or be constantly attacked - China. China is attacked because it's the most credible threat and competition for share of global resources and not a part of the cabal or under its boot.

China is now certainly engaged in covert warfare against India. It's actually started years ago and arguably started mid to late 20th century when the PRC's leaders decided to support Pakistan in this regional geopolitical struggle. The CCP leaders honestly often do think very long term whereas the Indians couldn't tell you what they actually believe are their options the next week.
 
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ougoah

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Full conventional war with India will do nothing to damage China's reputation. When it comes to western standards of moral posturing, China has nothing. It cannot lose anymore goodwill here because it has none. Nothing to lose. When it comes to the softpower I described which China has, well a publicised war will actually improve it as it cements China's position and the war allows China to prove its ability at least in one unfortunate domain, violence. Something China is traditionally not good at to be honest. But the Indians are pretty bad at it as well. We're not fighters but this is a fight with tremendous potential opportunities for China.
 
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BoggedDown

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I agree Chinese soft power and good will has eroded to some extent within a very short span of time in most part of the world due to constant propaganda and some of its own making. But I believe there are vast majority of people out there who do not subscribe to US propaganda blindly and still amaze Chinese roket like rise. Some recent Chinese government action in Xinjiang and Hong kong rightly or wrongly has raise some questions and give fuel to anti China propagandist. I do not want to elaborate those issues here to derail this thread any further and how situation could have handled differently to reach the same goal the Chinese government wanted. But I would say a vast majority of people in the world have a very soft corner for India I do not know why but may be due to its ancient civilization, vast amount of poor people or just a mystic land of far way. A open war with India will cause many people blame China without understanding reasons underlying. I think this is the last thing what China needs right now and for this reason government is trying to down play as much as possible.
 
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