Ladakh Flash Point
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Praveen Sawhney is one of the few sane minds in the Indian Defence community. I think he might have given the PLA a little too much credit in the future warfare stuff. I foresee that a in war with India would still revolve mostly in the kinetic field. Wars in space and cyberspace can quickly get out of hand, so I think the PLA would avoid going that far. Unless the Indians wanna fight there.
But overall I think his analysis on India vs China is as good as it gets from the Indian perspective. I appreciate that he mentioned India's abrogation of article 370 and the Johnson Line. He is bringing up all these inconvenient facts about India's aggression towards China. Facts that the Indian government, the Bhakts, and the West conviniently ignore. If only there are people like him in the Indian government. India would be a saner country.
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This seems to be the only confirmed PLA KIA(?) from the skirmishes so far, a 19yo border guard from the 363rd Border Defense Regiment (69316部队）
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Why? There seems to be a pattern in this forum to give everyone but China the initiative. India can decide the scope and tempo of conflict, America can decide the scope and tempo of conflict, but heaven forbid China do anything but fight with one hand tied behind its back. If China decides there's going to be war, it will be to destroy India and cripple any capacity it has to threaten China for a hundred years.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I think China will hold back, or at least do all it can to disguise any use of cyber weapons.
Not because it is worried about things ‘getting out of hand’, but rather because those capabilities are intended for use against the Americans, and China does not want to tip it’s hand by revealing its true, full capabilities in those fields, which are unnecessary overkill against India.
Also, I think you are missing the point in China preferring to fight in the limited region America/India might choose attack.
That is a position born of strength, not weakness. You only need to look to expand the scope of the conflict if you are loosing the stand-up fight and need to hit your opponent where they are weaker.
In Asia, China has no weak spots an enemy might choose to focus on. Wherever an enemy might choose to fight, China has the raw power to take them head-on and not fear of being at a disadvantage.
If China is holding its own and even winning the stand-up fight in the limited region an enemy has attacked, why risk uncontrolled escalation by opening up new fronts elsewhere?
Remember, China is primarily focused on defending itself and driving off the attacker, it doesn’t need to then chase after the defeated enemy to take the fight to them unless it chooses to press home it’s advantage.
But tbh, if China can beat back a full USN assault on even footing, it doesn’t really need to worry about US bases in SK or Japan.
Those bases are untenable without US naval support, and at that stage, China could probably get them closed through diplomatic threats alone.
Like clockwork it seems that some Indians have instantly become subject matter experts on PLA cemeteries
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Here is better picture via LKJ86
Wow they add new apron on the left?
Wow they add new apron on the left?
I'll argue that this is isn't actually a problem, but rather an opportunity for the PLA's SSF and SRF to battle test their capabilities and systems in a relatively low-risk theater. China doesn't need to advertise the full range of its capabilities, but it certainly will be able to test key aspects of those capabilities in a real conflict.
Let me make a case for the above, using the Gulf War as a case-study, because it is very relevant to your concern. The US did indeed go overboard in 1991, which is its swiftest military victory (and possibly it's last.) The US utilized every advantage it had, short of nuclear weapons, for 43 days, crippling Iraq before the ground war even began, and then it vaporized the Iraqi Army in a 100 hours. In doing so, the US 'revealed its hand' and this allowed China and Russia to immediately begin developing counters to those systems. Why did the US do this? For two reasons:
- Due to the humiliation it suffered in Vietnam and the rebuild of its military following that conflict.
- It did so with the expectation that its upward R&D trajectory would continue.
But the US sabotaged that trajectory itself, because of the 'Peace Dividend' following the end of the Cold War. It began cancelling its most effective programs, like the F-22 and the Sea Wolf submarine etc. (There were also many other systemic problems, but let's ignore those.) If the US had continued on its R&D trajectory, and not gotten bogged down in the 'war on terror' afterwards, 'revealing its hand' in Gulf War wouldn't have mattered, because its tech+tactics would have evolved considerably further by now, and many more of those systems would be in operation today. Most of what worked in 1991 against Iraq, wouldn't work today against China anyway. Therefore, it's not necessary that China will lose much of an advantage by testing its systems against India, as long as it continues its upward R&D trajectory. And the data the PLA gathers from the battlefield will be invaluable to further develop and evolve those capabilities, which it may need against the US in the future.
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