Ladakh Flash Point

Inst said:

The problem with the Indian estimates is that they're assuming the Chinese will just go for the runways, and nothing else. If the runways are knocked out, however, the planes are trapped on the ground, and DF-16s can likely have enough force to penetrate the HAS top and explode inside with 700 kg of explosives.

NATO HAS, in general, are designed to withstand a direct hit by a 250 kg bomb. Even the DH-10 cruise missile has a warhead of 500 kg.

And you have to remember, Beijing has Beidou up and India is close enough to its core target territories. Indian EW isn't rated as first-class, so there's no guarantee they can jam DF-16s and DH-10s or CJ-10s, which can have Beidou guidance for high precision.

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The Indian assumption seems more like out of the 220 missiles, half will not work, half of the ones that do work will malfunction, half of the ones that work and don't malfunction will not hit their intended targets, and half of the remaining will fail to explode. Or something along those lines LOL. The rest of their assumption is that they can rebuild destroyed bunkers, hangars, and runways within a day, and they are also assuming they have infinite supply and no issues with resupply.

The funny thing is, even if all of that were true, the PLARF can still afford to shut their airfields for the critical days. Minimal IAF presence means IA is quickly knocked out by superior numbers and equipment of PLA with PLAAF holding air superiority and bombing their positions constantly. Enough for PLAAF and PLA to get half way to New Delhi.

Indians are delusional. 59% Indians want to go war with China. 72% Indians think they can beat China. Bollywood movies and Indian news media propaganda seems to work in India.

Mohsin77 said:

I reckon that 'AI' is the true centerpiece of next gen unmanned platforms, because networks are going to be the first casualty in a true 21st century near-peer war... But discussing this topic doesn't make sense in this thread, so I'll leave it be.

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I am not disagreeing with the notion that AI is fundamentally important. I am just differentiating the Chinese effort (that you highlighted) and US development in terms of scope and emphasis. The US AI development is not cruise missile centric and importantly it is not because of potential network disruption as you posited. The purpose of the Skyborg program is to build an artificial brain for autonomous flight management leading to eventually an unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV). The loyal wingman is a common group of ideas like Kratos, Gremlins, Boeing/Australia wingman that would lead to unmanned aircraft (semi autonomous) with long range attritable properties that will augment 5th generation platforms to enhance effects and survivability of the force package.

Network disruption is addressed via multiple redundancies with the concept that each platform is a sensor and a node. The current ABMS project is to address this highly complex area because platforms typically cannot talk to each other unless they are built with common standard communication protocols and technologies and that is simply not the case. The US is far ahead than any other country because the introduction of 5th gen platforms highlighted the eco system deficiency. The fact that you don't see such issues being discussed is because no other country has the depth and length of period actually working with 5th gen platforms. For example, you can;t disrupt or jam MADL communications because they have LPOI properties and more importantly they are directional unlike Link 16 which are omni-directional. Communications jamming is about jamming the receiver - not the broadcast. You cannot jam something when you don't know its receiving location. The problem is how to bridge 5th to 4th gen communications.

Finally just to finish off on networks, the third Vanguard progam that I did not mentioned earlier is the M-code GPS system. They are jam resistant. They are currently in the midst of roll out with two satellites already launched.

Deino said:

Thanks a lot!

... even if this is a pure joke!

View attachment 62373

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The author also forget that with Chinese Civil Engineering expertise, they can build a lot of use-able temporary airbase around Tibet and Xinjiang in a short time. Plus, the US air superiority in their last war against Iraq and Afghanistan was actually only true on the surface. The reality is, their true superiority lies on their information gathering, precision missiles, and data link superiority. This kind of expertise can be seen from how Saudi's lack of efficiency when they bombard Houthi airfield some years ago. Saudi Air Superiority didn't bring them anywhere in the war.

In term of information capability, India is surely lack behind China. Some years ago, they thought that a star was Chinese aircraft. They can't even detect Chinese elements in Himalaya region when China decide to hide their troop. It was spoken by an article in 2017 Sikkim Standoff, where Indian General said that China was expert to hide. They can hide, and suddenly appear somewhere. This show that their information technology is limited.

In term of Orbit element, India is also lack behind China. Where China has finish their Beidou formation, play with ASAT, even advance their space warfare capability.

In this 5th generation warfare, the war won't start from the sky, but from the space. Both parties will denies and destroy the opposition's space elements, like sat, etc. With India's limited space warfare capability, they will lost their space element in no time. And from there, China will be easily to gather information from the orbit and coordinate their Air, Land, and Sea element to defeat India. Even if Rafael is a numero uno jet fighter in the world, can beat F-22, F-35, etc. it won't able to do anything when the information superiority has been taken by China.

In term of mobility and infrastructure building, India is also behind Chinese. If we see the geography of the border between two countries, China is surely in the disadvantage because there are mountain formation on their side of the region, that hinder troop movement. But we always see that Chinese always outmaneuver IA in their standoff. We can witness them on how quick their brigades can reach the frontline. Whatever it is in 2017 and 2020. And India cries about the where about Chinese Underground base near Ladakh. Which is suprise us all.

Brainsuker said:

The author also forget that with Chinese Civil Engineering expertise, they can build a lot of use-able temporary airbase around Tibet and Xinjiang in a short time. Plus, the US air superiority in their last war against Iraq and Afghanistan was actually only true on the surface. The reality is, their true superiority lies on their information gathering, precision missiles, and data link superiority. This kind of expertise can be seen from how Saudi's lack of efficiency when they bombard Houthi airfield some years ago.

In term of information capability, India is surely lack behind China. Some years ago, they thought that a star was Chinese aircraft. They can't even detect Chinese elements in Himalaya region when China decide to hide their troop. It was spoken by an article in 2017 Sikkim Standoff, where Indian General said that China was expert to hide. They can hide, and suddenly appear somewhere. This show that their information technology is limited.

In term of Orbit element, India is also lack behind China. Where China has finish their Beidou formation, play with ASAT, even advance their space warfare capability.

In this 5th generation warfare, the war won't start from the sky, but from the space. Both parties will denies and destroy the opposition's space elements, like sat, etc. With India's limited space warfare capability, they will lost their space element in no time. And from there, China will be easily to gather information from the orbit and coordinate their Air, Land, and Sea element to defeat India. Even if Rafael is a numero uno jet fighter in the world, can beat F-22, F-35, etc. it won't able to do anything when the information superiority has been taken by China.

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You mean this?

jfy1155 said:

You mean this?

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The level of competence and professionalism in the Indian Army is truly unparalleled.

Jai Hind!!!!!!

China needs to be preparing for a potential kinetic confrontation with the US, a real superpower and the planet's dominant military. The Indians are nothing in comparison. To use the expression some Chinese chauvinists have come up with, India truly is the real scum stuck on your shoe. It's quick and easy to remove while you have some free time and the longer you leave it on, the worse it sinks in and stinks everything up. As the US is working towards kinetic escalations, CCP should consider a comprehensive solution on India's military so that it isn't able to join in when the PLA will be busy dealing with real militaries.

Run a quick and violent high tech war on India now to destroy the majority of its offensive capabilities with minimum Chinese losses, while the PLA isn't distracted. Guaranteeing that any future military alliance led by the US will not be enjoying the company of the entire Indian military because this is certainly going to happen at some point in the future and the Indians will certainly pile on. If at any stage things escalate to nuclear against India, the numbers are not on India's side, if a future China vs alliance war escalates to nuclear, everybody loses and the onus would be more on the aggressor/instigator of kinetic war (the alliance) to prevent MAD because they naturally have more to lose.

Brumby said:

I am not disagreeing with the notion that AI is fundamentally important. I am just differentiating the Chinese effort (that you highlighted) and US development in terms of scope and emphasis.

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Perhaps the US is still focused on the assumption of survival of networks due to sheer complacency, and because that is their core advantage as a fighting force. On the other hand, this was always something that China/Russia had to find a way to counter. It's much easier (and more cost effective) to break the opponent's networks than to build your own. But of course, that is a double edged sword, which is why Chinese AI efforts are more focused on being independent of networks altogether.

You cannot jam something when you don't know its receiving location.

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Jamming isn't the only option, you can also destroy/disable key nodes in the chain. It's exponentially harder to defend all the key nodes in a network than it is to attack them. For one, unless those nodes are air-gapped (which they cannot be, by definition) they will always be vulnerable to malicious code. Secondly, all the Chinese weaponry that the USN is worried about (with regards to defending its surface ships) is also a threat to the static land based network infrastructure.

The US has been taking the security of its networks for granted for a long time. In a true 21st century near peer war, this assumption will be tested for the first time.

Finally just to finish off on networks, the third Vanguard progam that I did not mentioned earlier is the M-code GPS system. They are jam resistant. They are currently in the midst of roll out with two satellites already launched.

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I don't really bother discussing space based infrastructure, because no side has the capacity to defend its own infrastructure there... Humanity simply has not yet discovered the physics needed to fight in space... But that's a whole separate discussion.

During the Second Sino-Japanese War, a Chinese force was reputedly destroyed because in the fog, they encountered a Japanese unit and mistook Japanese for a Sinolect, whereas the Japanese didn't have the same problem.

Evidently InA line troops / border guards haven't had much human capital devolve into their hands.