Ladakh Flash Point

Mohsin77 said:

That only matters if you hit the runways but miss the assets. If you can destroy assets in hangers/tarmac, then they have to move entire squadrons around to get that base back up. These replacements could be from different theater commands, and that isn't a smooth process, especially for a notoriously unsmooth organization like the Indian military/bureaucracy.

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Mohsin77 said:

So IMO, the real question is, what is the probability that the PLAAF can take out most IAF targets in the open and hardened shelters with its stand-off inventory? This is mostly a task for cruise missiles, if they have penetrators or are accurate enough to fly inside the hangor to detonate. Tomahawks could pull stunts like this in 1991. But this also depends on the availability of hardened shelters for the relevant IAF bases. The Rafales are going to be stationed at Ambala, I think, which does have hardened shelters. But how many assets can the IAF protect by parking them in hardened shelters in this theater? How many of its MKIs will be exposed on the tarmac? Also, the other thing cruise missiles can do is attack targets of opportunity out in the open, this is where 'AI' becomes relevant. If they spot a high value asset, like an AWACS parked on the tarmac, they can prioritize it automatically.

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Mohsin77 said:

The AI solution also ties into the SEAD/DEAD issue. We need to remember that in our new (but completely untested) 21st century SEAD/DEAD paradigm, ECM isn't supposed to matter that much anymore. Because if you have an AI enabled drone/missile swarm, then you've actually nullified the opponent's ECM capabilities, because you're no longer dependent on long range network communications anymore.

According to this new paradigm, all you really need to know is the general area where the opponent has deployed their SAM assets, and then you just launch your 'AI' drone swarm in its general direction, and let it do its thing autonomously. If your AI swarm loses contact with the control node due to ECM, that's not supposed to be a problem anymore.

This is a key 21st century capability, which is beyond the 'Network Centric Warfare' paradigm of the late 20th century. Both China and Russia began developing this paradigm as a direct response to 1991. It remains to be seen how they've progressed in this arena. AFAIK, US intel reports generally indicate (and also Praveen Sawhney has commented on this a lot) that the Chinese are advanced in this arena. If it works, it will revolutionize warfare just as much as 1991 did.

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Figaro said:

Looks like DJT finally put an end to the stupid Indian claims of 35 or 43 Chinese soldiers killed at 18:20. And the Indians were claiming US intelligence reports stated these figures

"The world is a very angry place. If you look all over the world. We call up -- I get -- I see 22 soldiers were killed in India with China, fighting over the border."

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Tiberium said:

The best A2A method is to destroy enemy's planes on the ground, that's exactly what China would do in a war with India.
We could see satellite photos of airfields in Kashgar but what we won't see is the movement of PLARF TELs and PLA's MLRS to the Tibet, I believe that's also the dominant force if the war becomes real. We would see the demolition of IAF in the first few hours of the war, and it's not in the fancy scenario of those precious Su-30MKIs shot down by J-20, but blowed up with the hangars by 300mm rockets.

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Sardaukar20 said:

I fully agree with this. The CPC has not really taken the Indian threat seriously enough. Too much attention is spent on the Asia Pacific front. I'am 100% certain that if China is weakened, or if attacked by the US & friends, India under this fascist BJP govt will attack China. Can't the CPC see that India is never-ever a friendly nation? The fascist BJP govt has an approval rating of 70% from the Indian people. This hostility is going to stay for good. India is on a warpath with China. And the Chinese govt is still 'urging India to get back on the right path'. If the Indians had really 'won' the Galwan clash, it would have been a hot war already. They would no doubt try to 'press the advantage'.

The PLA has force superiority on the Indian land border. But one of my biggest gripe about China is their severe lack of presence in the Indian Ocean. The Indians have repeatedly threatened to shut the Malacca Straits. Regardless of how superior the PLAN is to the IN, this is a terrible strategic weakness that can be exploited. PLAN needs to form a true Indian Ocean fleet NOW. Relying on the Pakistan Navy would foolish, because of they just won't have the means to throw out the IN at the Andaman Sea. IN cannot be confronted with just Type 054A frigates, a full fleet of destroyers and submarines is sorely needed there. If the Indians decide to go on an adventure in Ladakh, they would almost certainly send the IN to block the Malacca Straits. Where to base this Indian Ocean Fleet? For now it can be based in Djibouti, Pakistan, or Iran. But there must be efforts to try to get Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and most importantly Indonesia to allow basing of PLAN fleets at their ports. Why Indonesia is most important? Basing the PLAN fleet at Sumatra would give the PLAN a naval base in the Indian Ocean some good distance away from the Indian mainland, but close enough to intercept the IN in the Andaman Sea. It would be a nice 'fleet in being'.

The Nuclear front is my other gripe. I think China is not taking India (and the USA) seriously enough here. The BJP Indian govt is mad enough to go nuclear in desperation. They threatened Pakistan with nukes when they got slapped by the PAF on 27th Feb 2019. But pulled back because surprise surprise, Pakistan has nukes too. India always boasts about their Agni IV and Agni V nuking Beijing and Shanghai. China needs to seriously beef up its nuclear arsenal. At least 150 warheads should be reserved just for India. All thermonuclear. Put them on IRBMs and SLBMs that puts New Delhi on extremely short notice on launch. These BJP leaders don't mind that average Indians die from nuclear attacks, just that they themselves don't die from it. Let them know clearly that there are nukes for destined for their asses. So no nuclear monkey business, or else!

China needs to stop treating India as if it were a sane country. India is not Japan, Australia, South Korea, etc. India under the BJP do not have a rational foreign policy. China is being played a fool with India. They think India would appreciate goodwill, generosity, and respect. No they don't. They behave more like Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan, minus the competence. The Soviet Union under Stalin tried to appease Nazi Germany, what they got in return is Operation Barbarossa. China's naivety with foreign policy can be infuriating at times. Whats the point of all the wealth? If a robber with a gun can steal them from you.

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Josh Luo said:

Well, China will need a lot of long-range standoff weapons then. The ones deployed by H-6 and JH-7 only have ranges of around 180km, which would be well within India's early warning radar zones.

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siegecrossbow said:

Who were the two additional dead soldiers?

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Figaro said:

I guess India suffered two more dead that they did not disclose of ... there was an Indian Army officer who stated 23 Indian soldiers had been killed. Of course, the 22 Indian soldiers killed is just the US intelligence disclosure. More than likely it was much higher. I have a hard time believing India would willingly disclose its losses beyond what is publicly stated to the US out of embarrassment.

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