Ladakh Flash Point

Sardaukar20 said:

I fully agree with this. The CPC has not really taken the Indian threat seriously enough. Too much attention is spent on the Asia Pacific front. I'am 100% certain that if China is weakened, or if attacked by the US & friends, India under this fascist BJP govt will attack China. Can't the CPC see that India is never-ever a friendly nation? The fascist BJP govt has an approval rating of 70% from the Indian people. This hostility is going to stay for good. India is on a warpath with China. And the Chinese govt is still 'urging India to get back on the right path'. If the Indians had really 'won' the Galwan clash, it would have been a hot war already. They would no doubt try to 'press the advantage'.

The PLA has force superiority on the Indian land border. But one of my biggest gripe about China is their severe lack of presence in the Indian Ocean. The Indians have repeatedly threatened to shut the Malacca Straits. Regardless of how superior the PLAN is to the IN, this is a terrible strategic weakness that can be exploited. PLAN needs to form a true Indian Ocean fleet NOW. Relying on the Pakistan Navy would foolish, because of they just won't have the means to throw out the IN at the Andaman Sea. IN cannot be confronted with just Type 054A frigates, a full fleet of destroyers and submarines is sorely needed there. If the Indians decide to go on an adventure in Ladakh, they would almost certainly send the IN to block the Malacca Straits. Where to base this Indian Ocean Fleet? For now it can be based in Djibouti, Pakistan, or Iran. But there must be efforts to try to get Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and most importantly Indonesia to allow basing of PLAN fleets at their ports. Why Indonesia is most important? Basing the PLAN fleet at Sumatra would give the PLAN a naval base in the Indian Ocean some good distance away from the Indian mainland, but close enough to intercept the IN in the Andaman Sea. It would be a nice 'fleet in being'.

The Nuclear front is my other gripe. I think China is not taking India (and the USA) seriously enough here. The BJP Indian govt is mad enough to go nuclear in desperation. They threatened Pakistan with nukes when they got slapped by the PAF on 27th Feb 2019. But pulled back because surprise surprise, Pakistan has nukes too. India always boasts about their Agni IV and Agni V nuking Beijing and Shanghai. China needs to seriously beef up its nuclear arsenal. At least 150 warheads should be reserved just for India. All thermonuclear. Put them on IRBMs and SLBMs that puts New Delhi on extremely short notice on launch. These BJP leaders don't mind that average Indians die from nuclear attacks, just that they themselves don't die from it. Let them know clearly that there are nukes for destined for their asses. So no nuclear monkey business, or else!

China needs to stop treating India as if it were a sane country. India is not Japan, Australia, South Korea, etc. India under the BJP do not have a rational foreign policy. China is being played a fool with India. They think India would appreciate goodwill, generosity, and respect. No they don't. They behave more like Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan, minus the competence. The Soviet Union under Stalin tried to appease Nazi Germany, what they got in return is Operation Barbarossa. China's naivety with foreign policy can be infuriating at times. Whats the point of all the wealth? If a robber with a gun can steal them from you.

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If the Indians won the Galwan clash they would be "liberating Tibet from the Communists" already. CCP needs to respond to them by "liberating" Punjab, Kashmir, Kerala ... it's only fair. Just because the Indians don't have the ability doesn't mean they don't deserve some reaction. It's like ignoring the guy who wants to murder you... as soon as his broken arm heals. China is a huge softy when it comes to dealing with outsiders. It's a cultural thing and will guarantee centuries more of humiliation for Chinese. It's that unwillingness to be the "bad guy" and letting bygones be bygones attitude. Explains a lot of the white worshipping by most Chinese people.

India has a few missiles that can reach Beijing and Shanghai. Their warheads have always been <100KT yields and they've never tested a fusion weapon. Chinese have hundreds of missiles that can cover every inch of India and Chinese own thermonuclear weapons with yields in the MT since the 1970s IIRC.

Indian navy can't block the Malacca strait from PLAN that effectively. PLAN may be kept busy by the US and the blocking of Malacca strait shipping routes is certainly threatening but I doubt many nations if any would support India doing this because it disrupts their trade with China. However if these conditions are to chance, then PLAN either has to show up in numbers, therefore leaving posts in the SCS and ECS, or go to war with India to reverse this blockade. It's easier and safer to fight India through the borders than to send a fraction of PLAN over to Malaysian waters. So India blocking Malacca strait would be a declaration of war with China. One they'll lose quickly and violently. IN has no hope of sailing to meet PLAN beyond the Indian ocean. Even in the Indian ocean the IN isn't that impressive. Their tonnage of capable and modern vessels is like Australia's. 3 Kolkata class worthy destroyers, 3 Shivalik class frigates and a useless AC capital ship, literally that's all of the formidable side of the Indian navy. No other modern frigates, subs, or destroyers build and in service. No AIP subs, rented Soviet era nuclear attack sub, and everything relying on Brahmos. I've lost count how many types of modern Chinese AShM exist and their sub-variants. I don't think the Brahmos is more capable than any of them, certainly is a decade older than most. The firepower of Indians capable level surface fleet is about equal to the 6 Type 055s soon to reach service and 001 carrying the older J-15s. Underwater, even PLAN's submarine fleet embarrass India's. Air assets and missiles are much better on China's side too. Again India will cry Brahmos the 1990s missile that was offered for export in the 2000s and rejected by China. India should go beg Russia for Zircon lol and ask them to give it an Indian name.

ougoah said:

If the Indians won the Galwan clash they would be "liberating Tibet from the Communists" already. CCP needs to respond to them by "liberating" Punjab, Kashmir, Kerala ... it's only fair. Just because the Indians don't have the ability doesn't mean they don't deserve some reaction. It's like ignoring the guy who wants to murder you... as soon as his broken arm heals. China is a huge softy when it comes to dealing with outsiders. It's a cultural thing and will guarantee centuries more of humiliation for Chinese. It's that unwillingness to be the "bad guy" and letting bygones be bygones attitude. Explains a lot of the white worshipping by most Chinese people.

India has a few missiles that can reach Beijing and Shanghai. Their warheads have always been <100KT yields and they've never tested a fusion weapon. Chinese have hundreds of missiles that can cover every inch of India and Chinese own thermonuclear weapons with yields in the MT since the 1970s IIRC.

Indian navy can't block the Malacca strait from PLAN that effectively. PLAN may be kept busy by the US and the blocking of Malacca strait shipping routes is certainly threatening but I doubt many nations if any would support India doing this because it disrupts their trade with China. However if these conditions are to chance, then PLAN either has to show up in numbers, therefore leaving posts in the SCS and ECS, or go to war with India to reverse this blockade. It's easier and safer to fight India through the borders than to send a fraction of PLAN over to Malaysian waters. So India blocking Malacca strait would be a declaration of war with China. One they'll lose quickly and violently. IN has no hope of sailing to meet PLAN beyond the Indian ocean. Even in the Indian ocean the IN isn't that impressive. Their tonnage of capable and modern vessels is like Australia's. 3 Kolkata class worthy destroyers, 3 Shivalik class frigates and a useless AC capital ship, literally that's all of the formidable side of the Indian navy. No other modern frigates, subs, or destroyers build and in service. No AIP subs, rented Soviet era nuclear attack sub, and everything relying on Brahmos. I've lost count how many types of modern Chinese AShM exist and their sub-variants. I don't think the Brahmos is more capable than any of them, certainly is a decade older than most. The firepower of Indians capable level surface fleet is about equal to the 6 Type 055s soon to reach service and 001 carrying the older J-15s. Underwater, even PLAN's submarine fleet embarrass India's. Air assets and missiles are much better on China's side too. Again India will cry Brahmos the 1990s missile that was offered for export in the 2000s and rejected by China. India should go beg Russia for Zircon lol and ask them to give it an Indian name.

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Exactly, India doesn't have the ability now. But they have always dreamed of destroying China. This kind of nasty neighbour should never be ignored. If your house is on fire, India would loot the house and leave the occupants to die. India is a genuine security risk. The Chinese government is only just waking up to this threat.

No doubt the Indians don't have confirmed thermonuclear warheads. But any nukes, no matter the size would cause Shanghai more pain and loss than it would with Mumbai. China either needs some substantial ABM on the Indian border or an effective deterrence. I feel that most of China's nuclear arsenal is aimed at the USA for obvious reasons. India is probably not given much priority because there is Pakistan. But relying on Pakistan to nuke India for an Indian nuclear strike on China is not really fair for Pakistan. China needs to show India its resolve on nuclear security. China can and must have a nuclear missile force dedicated just for India. The BJP Indians are more likely to use nukes than other normal sane nuclear powers.

Based on fleet assets and naval buildup progress, the Indian Navy is a joke to the PLAN. Nevertheless, without some serious PLAN presence in the Indian Ocean, the Indian Navy can achieve a kind of local superiority. The PLAN should avoid having to fight in the narrow Malacca Straits to get to the IN in the Andaman Sea. That is just giving the enemy too much of a strategic advantage. I have full confidence that the PLAN can wipe out the Indian Navy in a full scale war, but just don't give this unworthy enemy a chance to hurt you if it can be avoided. Any IN presence in the SCS is very limited at best, and can be taken care of easily. But the PLAN have the numerical capability and the shipbuilding capacity to establish a decent sized Indian Ocean fleet to take on the IN. China should be leveraging on this advantage.

About the Brahmos. This 'Wunderwaffe' is essentially an Indian version of the P800 Oniks. Why don't the Russians really use it? Because Russia already have the original P800 Oniks and the superior P700 Granit. Plus the more modern Klub missile family. Its a good weapon, but its not the best AshM in Asia by a long shot. It is not a weapon deserving the reputation of 'PLAN killer'. So China cannot foolishly give India the opportunity to use it on the PLAN in advantageous areas like the Malacca Straits.

Nobonita Barua said:

Aren't you forgetting something?

That's how we prefer to deal with these filths ,by treating them as filths. If they are "traumatized" about it, can't do anything there. Sorry.

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I can understand your rage, but please don't be so rude. You don't add anything positive to the discussion that way. Naxalite Maoists are hostile to Bangladesh?

We need to consider the possibility of India propping up a Quad Military Base/ Naval Base in the Adaman/Nicobar Islands. While it will be to "block Malacca", I don't really understand how that will go down in the long run. Any naval blocks is an act of war.

The US already control the Malacca strait, but there is never any talk of blockading there because it would be impossible.

Modern trade and commerce is truly internationalised, meaning the nationality under which ships are flagged is essentially meaningless. Any ship will take any contract so long as it is profitable, and it’s pretty much just a never ending loop of ships dropping off their cargo and picking up what needs to be dispatched and moving on. The only way to effect a blockade in the modern world is if you can physically off limit an entire area which has only shipping going to or from the country you want to blockade so you can limit the number of ships you need to intercept/sink.

The sheer volume of shipping passing through the Malacca is just monstrous, but worse than it, it is truly international meaning you cannot simply just shut it down or impose any sort of slowdown or you would literally break international trade for the whole world. The entire USN could deploy there and board ships 24/7 and still not be able check ships fast enough to not cause the mother of all naval traffic jams. And that is assuming no ship lie on their paperwork, which would obviously not be the case in the event of a blockade and ships are trying to actively run that blockade.

That is why the Obama regime started stirring shit up in the SCS to start with. The volume of trade going through the SCS is massive, but it’s overwhelmingly Chinese trade. What trade that flows through it for other nations could easily divert around the SCS for only a small delay, allowing the USN to effect a blocked against China by closing down the SCS and then using the first and second island chains to intercept any Chinese shipping trying to loop around. The SCS is the only place on Earth a blockade against China could be implemented without breaking international trade or being sheer suicidal for the blockading power if done too close to the Chinese mainland.

That is why China took the threat so seriously and built is island bases.

This is also why Indian delusions about trying to mess with Chinese trade in the Indian Ocean is pure nonsense. Not only would the area they need to cover be completely impossible for the puny IN to manage, there is no way for them to single out Chinese shipping as Chinese flagged ships are as likely to be carrying someone else’s cargo as ships flagged under any random nationality.

If the Indians tried to mess with international trade in the Indian Ocean, it would quickly find most of the west’s navy there forcing them to back down without the PLAN having to lift a finger.

Sardaukar20 said:

The Indians have repeatedly threatened to shut the Malacca Straits.

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That is simply not credible.

In that scenario, China would end up conducting joint military operations to reopen the Malacca Straits along with Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia.

These are coastal countries that are critically dependent on the Malacca Straits sea lanes remaining open, so they would work with China to neutralise the Indian forces based on the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

The Nicobar Islands are only 200km from Indonesia or 700km from Malaysia.

And that is leaving aside the reaction from the rest of the world's navies.

Looks like DJT finally put an end to the stupid Indian claims of 35 or 43 Chinese soldiers killed at 18:20. And the Indians were claiming US intelligence reports stated these figures

"The world is a very angry place. If you look all over the world. We call up -- I get -- I see 22 soldiers were killed in India with China, fighting over the border."

On PLA options against Indian airfields, well the talk of China needing hundreds of missiles to keep Indian air bases offline 24 hours a day is just nonsensical Indian fantasy designed to inflate the needed number of munitions for the PLA to inflate Indian egos about their chances.

China does not need to keep Indian air bases under non-stop bombardment 24/7, what would be the point in that as you would literally just be bouncing rubble for the overwhelming majority of the time.

China just need to drop a few weapons to take out the runways to stop IAF jets from taking off, and then they could pretty much destroy what is trapped on the ground at their leisure.

In that respect, the following impressions from the USAF is very relevant, starting from 1:08.


Basically it says that the Indians need a ridiculously long interval between take offs ( a minute, compared to 20s for the USAF and most western air forces) due to fod concerns. When you consider the range and speeds of PLAMF ballistic missiles, the IAF would be lucky to get even a handful of their planes airborne before their runways are taken out assuming they were all on alert 5 conditions to start with, which would be highly unlikely.

India’s effectively nonexistent integrated air defences is most likely why the PLAAF is forward deploying mostly strikers rather than fighters - it does not expect enough of the IAF to be able to even get airborne in the first place to need to bring in any more fighters than they already have in theatre.

In the event of actual war, if China struck first, the IAF will be lucky to even get their alert fighters launched before their airbases are shut down by a modest wave of Chinese ballistic missiles, after which cruise missiles will come and systematically obliterate all shelters, fuel dumps and weapons stores. With UCAVs coming in to mop up.

Quite frankly, the PLAAF could quite easily keep Indian boarder region air bases permanently shut down for the duration of any war by simply parking constellations of UCAVs over them all after the initial strikes have grounded the IAF and PLAAF fighters mop up the few that did manage to get airborne.

Any Indian air bases close enough to be within Chinese MLRS range will be carpet bombed by those systems as the opening move since they are cheap and plentiful enough. This is actually more likely than not, as China will allow India to throw the first punch, but India may well screw that up and waste it as some meaningless low level skirmish due to bad discipline and/or poor strategy thinking they were salami slicing China and blunders over China’s red lines over nothing and triggering massive Chinese retaliation. Which is basically what happened in 62, and the Indians seemed to have learnt zero worthwhile or useful lessons from that, which is about right since successive Indian governments have been more concerned with arse covering and censoring official reports of the war than actually trying to learn anything from it.

Even if the Indians tried to launch a Pearl Harbour like attack and launched all their planes to initiate a war, they will be facing one of, if not the most capable and comprehensive air Defence networks in the world backed up by a technologically and numuerically superior enemy Air Force fighting over their own territory. To put the cherry on top, they will need to fly over the world’s highest mountain range to get at the Chinese, basically making any attempt at a surprise approach impossible and easily detected at long range.

In such an event, China may not even need to bother wasting any munitions or time going after Indian air bases as it’s entire Air Force would have already been shot down over Tibet by the time the PLAAF counter attacks and takes the fight into India airspace.

ougoah said:

The Indians are so frustrated at how hard they got fisted. You don't need to visit any indian forums to pick this up. Now they're dreaming of blowing Chinese people apart. You see how these scumbags really are? No better than Nazis or Japanese soldiers during WW2. Even at China's lowest and weakest, we never masturbated to this level of violent depravity. It explains why Indians are the way they are and such criminal offenders of human decency.

No other country has the level of violent murderous rape crime India somehow has. For these guys, it's not enough they're committing such a crime, but they need to introduce horrendous instruments like baseball bats and usually end up murdering the victim. History's worst war criminals; Japanese, Red Army, Nazis, US soldiers in Vietnam/Afghanistan/Iraq, and Indians... if they had the competence to fight wars. Like I said, Chinese are far too kind to these Jai Hinds. We should return their hatred and inhumanity with the like. CCP should consider funding Pakistani militant groups who work against India the same way the US funds terror groups and the same way India funds militants in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. That'll teach those Jai Hinds and give them a dose of their own med.

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Why does the CCP need to do anything? Take a look at how bad India is handling COVID, they are now +50,000 cases and close to a thousands deaths each day. Pakistan is down to under 1,000 cases a day, Bangladesh is down to less than 3,000 cases a day, and Nepal is down to under 500 cases a day. India will be mired in this situation for the long run, while Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal will be able to recover at a much better pace. No sane business person is going to come to India right now to invest in anything.

China's best move is to NOT do anything to further provoke India and just help our allies rebuild instead. India's stupid bans on chinese apps cost china at most $1 billion a month, lost GDP from BJP/Indian government incompetence with COVID is costing them probably $100 billion in lost GDP each month...let them keep"winning" for all they care. If anything, they will start turning on their own muslim citizens again with this whole build the Lord Ram temple on top of the ruins of a former mosque.

@Brumby

The calculation for effective range envelopes for BVR missiles comes out to this:

Max G of your missile (around time of impact) / (relative speed between your missile and the target at time of impact * Max G of target).

This is the basis of the 5 times G calculation, i.e, it's assuming the target aircraft is 5 times slower around time of impact.

This is why I keep on emphasizing the 11G of Su-57 and Rafale; compared to 9 G, Su-57 and Rafale, based on this equation, means that the missile requires 22% more G maneuverability or faces a reduction of about 18% effective range.

Now, the 11G of Rafale is strictly emergency; i.e, the airframe isn't designed to do 11G all day, although there's claims of videos where the Rafale pilot is constantly doing 10G maneuvers. But it's unknown as to whether other aircraft, such as a J-10D with TVC, might also be able to sustain short bursts of 11G, and before you go on with the human sustained G-limit, you have to remember we're talking instantaneous maneuvers, for which humans have survived 20-40G of acceleration.

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As to the other posters, I don't think the BJP, under the present circumstances, will pull the trigger, since the BJP knows they'll lose. The Chinese could end up deciding to pull the trigger because this border dispute has gone on long enough, and let's be honest, China's main concern is Taiwan and this military-political sideshow needs to end and stop emboldening TI activists (and the DPP!) over the prospect of forcing China into a two-front war.

I think for India to lose will be very healthy for India; i.e, we're discussing things like how Chinese modernization was driven by Western and Japanese imperialism; the belief in the necessity of force and a modern society became entrenched because of the latter's demonstration of what happens when you lack both.

On the other hand, if you read up on Indian histories, they're like the Europeans, except there was never enough regional segmentation or a strong and unified religious grouping aiming to keep the peace and eventually build nations (since India is very large and arguably regional). Moreover, it's important to mention that if one reads the Bhagavad Gita, you note that it's actually an excuse for militarism; i.e, the religious ideology was never as savage as the Aztecs, or arguably the Shang Chinese, but Hinduism is not necessarily an enemy of war; killing cows is bad, but killing people, provided you do it the right way, is fine and you can get religious salvation from it. And the Indians, before the Muslim conquests, had a strong habit of wasting their economic surplus on going to war with each other. The dominant Indian pattern, in contrast to Chinese dynasties that usually lasted 200-300 years, was of regional kingdoms that, in the north, typically lasted around 100-150 years, launched great conquests, then were usurped by a regional rival.

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All I am hoping for right now, is that the Indians do something stupid, and the Chinese react with overwhelming force. It creates credibility for PLA military capabilities in the future, it gives us a solution for rabid BJP nationalism, and hopefully Congress takes hold and presents a more dovish policy going forward.