Ladakh Flash Point

I'm trying to get bhakts to understand the extent of their loss and the reality so that there's a better chance they pressure Modi into a shooting war. This way Brumby can see how badly the IA will get flogged and we can settle the question of how much of a challenge the Indian military is for modern PLA. Brumby like the Indians are all talk and no action. Makes things sound impressive but as things are now, the Indians aren't even daring to show a shadow on the lands they claim. Just shipping their cannon fodder soldiers in with their 1980s trucks to the edge of Leh while their patrolling groups sit 1km back from PP14 and Finger 4. Meanwhile PLA has taken everything up to 1km of PP15 and Finger 5 - half of what India has been claiming since 1950s.

If they find the courage, my money puts the war being over within a week with devastating losses to India. Come on bhakts! Get Modi to show some spine instead of trolling the internet with your delusions and myopia. If Modi and his coward army just won't fight even after losing half of India's claims, nothing will make them fight unless both the US or Russia somehow declare war on China. Watch as the Indians jump in then after the bigger guy goes in. Absolute class lol.

It's no wonder really that India cannot seem to manage any complex, high profile projects successfully - with the exception of their space program, the only impressive thing in modern India. The mess they've made building various narratives, often with each subgroup working against another and contradicting themselves, is a microcosm of how "things get done" in India. When you can't even organise properly and comprehend the engineering or strategic problem at hand and fail to understand the complexity and true nature of it, you have no hope of overcoming it. There are sane and smart Indians who must be pulling their hair out at the sight and sound of bhakts making their usual daily noise.

This charade has been like watching a high school kid trying to work his way through an exam, failing to understand any of the questions, and more hilariously, rather than admitting he needs to do a lot more work, he instead begins to write his own questions next to real ones. Only to spend all his effort answering his own made up questions. It seems to give him self-assurance he's not a total useless idiot and proceeds to show it all off to everyone in the class.

While we can appreciate the new Indian member's initial respect shown to this forum and members here, he is still trying to misrepresent facts and warp the reality by presenting an agreed 1km backing off by BOTH sides as a unilateral Chinese withdraw, which is implied as some Indian military mightiness. Indian military had since May (that's 2 full months) opportunity to do something and shoot but they chose to do talks. The result of these talks is China's original claims being ceded by India while both sides create a buffer so that the undisciplined Indian army won't give the Chinese side any more drama. India should actually agree to China's claim lines as it has done here because China's claims are far more reasonable than India's. At least China claims half rather than the entire chunk of disputed territory. Consider this schoolkid shown his place when he ventured outside of his delusions, the place where it seems he will continue to dwell, for the benefit of China at least.

ougoah said:

I'm trying to get bhakts to understand the extent of their loss and the reality so that there's a better chance they pressure Modi into a shooting war. This way Brumby can see how badly the IA will get flogged and we can settle the question of how much of a challenge the Indian military is for modern PLA. Brumby like the Indians are all talk and no action. Makes things sound impressive but as things are now, the Indians aren't even daring to show a shadow on the lands they claim. Just shipping their cannon fodder soldiers in with their 1980s trucks to the edge of Leh while their patrolling groups sit 1km back from PP14 and Finger 4. Meanwhile PLA has taken everything up to 1km of PP15 and Finger 5 - half of what India has been claiming since 1950s.

If they find the courage, my money puts the war being over within a week with devastating losses to India. Come on bhakts! Get Modi to show some spine instead of trolling the internet with your delusions and myopia. If Modi and his coward army just won't fight even after losing half of India's claims, nothing will make them fight unless both the US or Russia somehow declare war on China. Watch as the Indians jump in then after the bigger guy goes in. Absolute class lol.

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It's not worth it. The Sino-Indian border is basically worthless, and the Sino-Pakistani border is worthless likewise. Both Xinjiang and Tibet are contained by mountain ranges which make land transportation through them extremely difficult.

The Indians, let's be honest, don't matter in a strategic sense. If China really wanted to neutralize them, they'd spend around 100 billion on building air defenses and ballistic missile loadouts on the Tibetan plateau, and there's very little the Indians can do about it.

That's the entire Sino-Indian fight over Tibet; if the Indians had an independent Tibet in their sphere of influence, China would be stuck defending Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Chengdu against a potential T-90 invasion with little effective border boundaries. But as China controls Tibet right now, it has the high ground and can lob ballistic missiles into India all it wants.

But it doesn't want to. The Indians are worth skirmishing with, but also worth negotiating with and seeking a clear border demarcation with. In the long-term, Sino-Indian cooperation is more beneficial than this endless border tension, but it requires some give from the Indian side which they are, to date, refusing to provide.

===

Once again, this is a ridiculous and stupid sideshow. Alsace and Lorraine was a dispute over populated areas, the Diaoyutai-Senkaku disputes are over areas with vague strategic importance, but the disputed territories on the Sino-Indian border barely matter. The present LAC is perfectly satisfactory for Chinese strategic needs; Aksai Chin might be crucial for Xinjiang-Tibet transport, but the Tibetan independence movement is withering on the vine so Tawang can remain in Indian hands.

ougoah said:

While we can appreciate the new Indian member's initial respect shown to this forum and members here, he is still trying to misrepresent facts and warp the reality by presenting an agreed 1km backing off by BOTH sides as a unilateral Chinese withdraw, which is implied as some Indian military mightiness. Indian military had since May (that's 2 full months) opportunity to do something and shoot but they chose to do talks. The result of these talks is China's original claims being ceded by India while both sides create a buffer so that the undisciplined Indian army won't give the Chinese side any more drama. India should actually agree to China's claim lines as it has done here because China's claims are far more reasonable than India's. At least China claims half rather than the entire chunk of disputed territory. Consider this schoolkid shown his place when he ventured outside of his delusions, the place where it seems he will continue to dwell for the benefit of China at least.

Click to expand...

The Indian government and the Indian nationalists are typically jokes, but remember that China was in fairly bad straits 70 years earlier as well.

We really, as a matter of courtesy, shouldn't be spending time making fun of the Indians for their obvious incapabilities. It's like kicking a puppy or a kitten, in a way; they have little capability and it just gives others the impression that we like picking on the weak.

Inst said:

It's not worth it. The Sino-Indian border is basically worthless, and the Sino-Pakistani border is worthless likewise. Both Xinjiang and Tibet are contained by mountain ranges which make land transportation through them extremely difficult.

The Indians, let's be honest, don't matter in a strategic sense. If China really wanted to neutralize them, they'd spend around 100 billion on building air defenses and ballistic missile loadouts on the Tibetan plateau, and there's very little the Indians can do about it.

That's the entire Sino-Indian fight over Tibet; if the Indians had an independent Tibet in their sphere of influence, China would be stuck defending Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Chengdu against a potential T-90 invasion with little effective border boundaries. But as China controls Tibet right now, it has the high ground and can lob ballistic missiles into India all it wants.

But it doesn't want to. The Indians are worth skirmishing with, but also worth negotiating with and seeking a clear border demarcation with. In the long-term, Sino-Indian cooperation is more beneficial than this endless border tension, but it requires some give from the Indian side which they are, to date, refusing to provide.

===

Once again, this is a ridiculous and stupid sideshow. Alsace and Lorraine was a dispute over populated areas, the Diaoyutai-Senkaku disputes are over areas with vague strategic importance, but the disputed territories on the Sino-Indian border barely matter. The present LAC is perfectly satisfactory for Chinese strategic needs; Aksai Chin might be crucial for Xinjiang-Tibet transport, but the Tibetan independence movement is withering on the vine so Tawang can remain in Indian hands.

Click to expand...

Do you mean a war isn't worth it? Somewhat agree with that but an Indo-China war has its benefits too. It's an opportunity to further solidify Chinese sentiments and national integrity. It demonstrates resolve to others watching. It shows some strength and it is a great chance to give the PLA some practice. Can't be a good military without some live shooting wars once in a while. Lots of untested equipment and modern military tech that's so far only been good at shooting targets in probably favourable environments. I'd say all this balances the drawbacks; economic loss, distraction, waste of material and lives, potential hits to political standing and foreign goodwill. Majority Indian people are thoroughly anti-China now. Chinese are not. A war can change that when it's justified.

Inst said:

That's the entire Sino-Indian fight over Tibet; if the Indians had an independent Tibet in their sphere of influence, China would be stuck defending Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Chengdu against a potential T-90 invasion with little effective border boundaries. But as China controls Tibet right now, it has the high ground and can lob ballistic missiles into India all it wants.

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PLA has many times more tanks than India and more guided artillery rounds and SADARM type munitions than India has tanks. China also manufactures their own. If T-90s even manage to get to the LAC hotspots, they won't be able to cross into the plains of Tibet without being annihilated. How they can even avoid utter annihilation form artillery barrages within the hour of war is a mystery. Chances are far greater for PLA to be swarming through to New Delhi than India even touching Tibetan soil on China's side. It's about as likely than North Korean tanks taking Washington DC. Do you even read your own comments? India has a pathetic number of T-90s which are all artillery fodder. A couple of recon UAVs or remote sensing satellites can feed guided shells right to the turret tops. It's easier than shooting fish in a barrel. Does India have the same ability? LOL well they're quickly importing Excalibur artillery and paying 100x what PLA pays for guided munitions. They've now received enough ammo for a whopping 20 minutes of shooting

Inst said:

That's the entire Sino-Indian fight over Tibet; if the Indians had an independent Tibet in their sphere of influence, China would be stuck defending Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Chengdu against a potential T-90 invasion with little effective border boundaries. But as China controls Tibet right now, it has the high ground and can lob ballistic missiles into India all it wants.

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And this is why China won't let India take their claims in Ladakh even though you are right in saying this stretch of land is of little importance to China. There are many safe and more distant routes to Pakistan and Arab lands than Ladakh.

Inst said:

But it doesn't want to. The Indians are worth skirmishing with, but also worth negotiating with and seeking a clear border demarcation with. In the long-term, Sino-Indian cooperation is more beneficial than this endless border tension, but it requires some give from the Indian side which they are, to date, refusing to provide.

Click to expand...

And that's exactly what happened. A few pseudo skirmishes now limited to fists rather than those skirmishes before 1962 war (progress for both) and negotiations and agreements done and carried out. The results of those agreements are mostly withheld but so far it seems the agreement is a 2km wide buffer zone established right in the middle, where China's claims just so happens to be and where India is missing 10km deep of claimed land.

ougoah said:

Do you mean a war isn't worth it? Somewhat agree with that but an Indo-China war has its benefits too. It's an opportunity to further solidify Chinese sentiments and national integrity. It demonstrates resolve to others watching. It shows some strength and it is a great chance to give the PLA some practice. Can't be a good military without some live shooting wars once in a while. Lots of untested equipment and modern military tech that's so far only been good at shooting targets in probably favourable environments. I'd say all this balances the drawbacks; economic loss, distraction, waste of material and lives, potential hits to political standing and foreign goodwill. Majority Indian people are thoroughly anti-China now. Chinese are not. A war can change that when it's justified.



PLA has many times more tanks than India and more guided artillery rounds and SADARM type munitions than India has tanks. China also manufactures their own. If T-90s even manage to get to the LAC hotspots, they won't be able to cross into the plains of Tibet without being annihilated. How they can even avoid utter annihilation form artillery barrages within the hour of war is a mystery. Chances are far greater for PLA to be swarming through to New Delhi than India even touching Tibetan soil on China's side. It's about as likely than North Korean tanks taking Washington DC. Do you even read your own comments? India has a pathetic number of T-90s which are all artillery fodder. A couple of recon UAVs or remote sensing satellites can feed guided shells right to the turret tops. It's easier than shooting fish in a barrel. Does India have the same ability? LOL well they're quickly importing Excalibur artillery and paying 100x what PLA pays for guided munitions. They've now received enough ammo for a whopping 20 minutes of shooting




And this is why China won't let India take their claims in Ladakh even though you are right in saying this stretch of land is of little importance to China. There are many safe and more distant routes to Pakistan and Arab lands than Ladakh.




And that's exactly what happened. A few pseudo skirmishes now limited to fists rather than those skirmishes before 1962 war (progress for both) and negotiations and agreements done and carried out. The results of those agreements are mostly withheld but so far it seems the agreement is a 2km wide buffer zone established right in the middle, where China's claims just so happens to be and where India is missing 10km deep of claimed land.

Click to expand...

I'll be insulting to the Indians as well. When it comes to China, the Indians have shown an incredible degree of imbecility reinforced by their political system. We're thinking, maybe if the InA gets wiped out by the PLAAF and the InAF gets shot down or blown up in their airbases, the Indians will see reason and come back, cap in hand. But from the demonstration of Indian sentiment we've seen: The. Indians. Really. Are. That. Stupid. Even if China has a successful border war with India, the Indians will never learn and just sell out their country to the Americans, necessitating an even more expensive border build-up to neutralize the Indians.

We're hoping that between the coronavirus and the fact that they lost senior personnel at Galwan, the Indian policy establishment will wise up and settle down, but if Galwan hasn't taught them a lesson, a more significant border war is unlikely to as well.

===

IMO, the best Indian move right now is to scale up their nuclear program and try to deter China via their nuclear arsenal. This gives China an excuse to scale up its nuclear program as well, which it has been needing to do in the context of Sino-American competition for quite some time.

Inst said:

The Indian government and the Indian nationalists are typically jokes, but remember that China was in fairly bad straits 70 years earlier as well.

We really, as a matter of courtesy, shouldn't be spending time making fun of the Indians for their obvious incapabilities. It's like kicking a puppy or a kitten, in a way; they have little capability and it just gives others the impression that we like picking on the weak.

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Unfair description. I'd call it a kitten or puppy (too cute a description for bhakts) more like savage rapist war criminals when they're treating Pakistanis and Kashmiris, trying to act tough and attempting to undermine China's claims. No country has come out to voice support to India officially. Show me ONE single nation which has officially spoken out in support for India that ISN'T fake Indian twitters pretending to be some national leader. Not a single country has condemned what China has done to the Indian Army. Why?? Because they realise this is a bilateral ongoing dispute between the two and China was in fact provoked into action because China's claims were being challenged by an inferior force. Once the superior PLA responded and the inferior IA realised they are powerless, the agreement now is obvious. China's claims is where the line is at and now a 2km buffer is here for the meantime. Agreeable terms to China who can temporarily leave the last 1km as they've settled the dispute in its favour.

Once things cool down further and the need for the 2km buffer zone is no more, both sides can take up their new positions and observe the new border lines, which have been where China's always claimed them to be... PP14/15 and Finger 4. Indians are welcome to go up to these points but no further anymore.

Inst said:

I'll be insulting to the Indians as well. When it comes to China, the Indians have shown an incredible degree of imbecility reinforced by their political system. We're thinking, maybe if the InA gets wiped out by the PLAAF and the InAF gets shot down or blown up in their airbases, the Indians will see reason and come back, cap in hand. But from the demonstration of Indian sentiment we've seen: The. Indians. Really. Are. That. Stupid. Even if China has a successful border war with India, the Indians will never learn and just sell out their country to the Americans, necessitating an even more expensive border build-up to neutralize the Indians.

We're hoping that between the coronavirus and the fact that they lost senior personnel at Galwan, the Indian policy establishment will wise up and settle down, but if Galwan hasn't taught them a lesson, a more significant border war is unlikely to as well.

===

IMO, the best Indian move right now is to scale up their nuclear program and try to deter China via their nuclear arsenal. This gives China an excuse to scale up its nuclear program as well, which it has been needing to do in the context of Sino-American competition for quite some time.

Click to expand...

Really is the difference between people and situation. India is truly far less powerful than most nationalistic Indians imagine. Perhaps this explains the imbecility everyone's been witnessing. It's an unwillingness to accept that perhaps they are not super power 2012... ahem sorry I mean 2020. So the head burying gets deeper into the sand as the psychological barrier to accept reality is strengthened. It's beyond explanation otherwise. How they can call China's taking of 10km of Indian claimed lands now by focusing on the backing off of the last 1km even though India's also doing the same?! lol can't make this up.

It's like if a sales negotiation between China the seller and India the buyer goes:

China - $100 dollars
India - no how about $20 dollars
China - Sorry this is not possible, it's a great price for you and any more talk about this, you can take a hike and not have it
India - nope I am strong in my position, $20 take it or leave it
5 minutes later
India - $19.95 okay?
China - I warned you, it's now $200
India - How Dare YOU! Do you know who I am??!
China - $300? You really wanna push this?
India - Woah woah okay look how about we talk like when this started yeah bro?
China - $90 today and $10 tomorrow.
India - Deal... oh and don't tell my wife please... she thinks I bought it for $20
China - whatever loser

ougoah said:

Really is the difference between people and situation. India is truly far less powerful than most nationalistic Indians imagine. Perhaps this explains the imbecility everyone's been witnessing. It's an unwillingness to accept that perhaps they are not super power 2012... ahem sorry I mean 2020. So the head burying gets deeper into the sand as the psychological barrier to accept reality is strengthened. It's beyond explanation otherwise. How they can call China's taking of 10km of Indian claimed lands now by focusing on the backing off of the last 1km even though India's also doing the same?! lol can't make this up.

It's like if a sales negotiation between China the seller and India the buyer goes:

China - $100 dollars
India - no how about $20 dollars
China - Sorry this is not possible, it's a great price for you and any more talk about this, you can take a hike and not have it
India - nope I am strong in my position, $20 take it or leave it
5 minutes later
India - $19.95 okay?
China - I warned you, it's now $200
India - How Dare YOU! Do you know who I am??!
China - $300? You really wanna push this?
India - Woah woah okay look how about we talk like when this started yeah bro?
China - $90 today and $10 tomorrow.
India - Deal... oh and don't tell my wife please... she thinks I bought it for $20
China - whatever loser

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Does it matter? Nationalistic venting and other actions for "image" are par for course. The Chinese do it, the Americans do it, the Japanese do it, and so on.

Arguing with stupid people is, well, competing in the Special Olympics. The Indians don't matter to China right now, because the military and diplomatic threat is minimal. The market is nice, true, but it's not that big a market even when compared to a single EU state, and as a Pakistani poster suggested, the Indians would have to go back to the stone age if they dropped their low-cost Chinese imports.

===

TBH we can just google the damned Indian news, and guess what the common refrain is? "My land! My land!" Who the hell cares about your land? This is like the primitive obsession of an agricultural farmer; the territory matters for its strategic or resource importance, but land in principle, you can see how the Indian media is appealing to Indian agriculturalists with their small farm holding that's better sold off to agribusiness.

It's an incredibly primitive obsession.

Nuclear build up by India is useless because China isn't threatening India with nukes at all and won't come close to that. India can't really afford nuclear buildup and they've yet to build a thermonuclear weapon successfully and test one. They can amass newer and long range ICBMs when they design some more and better ones while they stockpile 200KT warheads and work on actually delivering MIRVs, but when and if they are successful in this endeavor, it will be 20 years or more later and there's no need for it because deterrence means there's something to deter. Since China has no wish to have any nuclear exchanges with India, it is useless there. If it's to deter China's conventional military from taking more claims, then ask yourself if India is willing to receive hundreds of Megatonne nukes over a few stretches of land. Because that's assured. Meanwhile it will be 20 years or more before India can even begin to imagine doing the same to China.