Ladakh Flash Point

Inst said:

Does it matter? Nationalistic venting and other actions for "image" are par for course. The Chinese do it, the Americans do it, the Japanese do it, and so on.

Arguing with stupid people is, well, competing in the Special Olympics. The Indians don't matter to China right now, because the military and diplomatic threat is minimal. The market is nice, true, but it's not that big a market even when compared to a single EU state, and as a Pakistani poster suggested, the Indians would have to go back to the stone age if they dropped their low-cost Chinese imports.

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TBH we can just google the damned Indian news, and guess what the common refrain is? "My land! My land!" Who the hell cares about your land? This is like the primitive obsession of an agricultural farmer; the territory matters for its strategic or resource importance, but land in principle, you can see how the Indian media is appealing to Indian agriculturalists with their small farm holding that's better sold off to agribusiness.

It's an incredibly primitive obsession.

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India's version of "nationalistic venting" is creating new versions of reality and promoting them tirelessly all the while turning the finger on others and jumping around like a baboon. It doesn't measure up to the same level of nationalistic venting done by others, which while often featuring elements of anger and frustration, rarely venture far from reality.

Setting the narrative straight, correcting lies, and presenting the reality, are not efforts in arguing with stupid people. By definition, there is no way to really argue or have discourse with stupid people who insist on lies. Just like I can't convince a die-hard flat earther of the truth, I cannot convince bhakts of the real situation that developed and resulted from this confrontation. But we can look at the stuff they're presenting and offer the truth when it strays too far from it. Just like correcting the Indian lie that 56 names published by CCP of fallen PLA soldiers where honest people proved the source was yet again random Indians making shit up on twitter, taking out of context images and infographics. More embarrassing for Indians is that list is of PLA Generals from the 20th century. More and more misrepresentations of the truth have come from these Indian propaganda clowns and each one debunked, shot down, or replaced with a more sober and objective view.

Do you really think Indian physicists are too dumb to design a decent thermonuke? The real issue with nukes for India is that nukes are fundamentally defensive, not offensive weapons. Nukes are last-ditch weapons or all-in threats; you can build a ton of them but you can't actually use them without triggering MAD.

The conventional military acquisition of the Indian army, on the other hand, can be easily used to threaten, or to border jostle, etc. An Indian military posture depending on nukes is basically an acknowledgment that they've given up on their aggressive ambitions.

On the other hand, this factor is quite subtle and gets quite over the heads of most jingoists and nationalists. Switching a nuclear defense posture as opposed to a conventional military posture is a way to satisfy jingoists and nationalists desire for strength, while at the same time reorienting the political structure from one that focuses on military hegemony to one that focuses on growth.

I'd say that the key factor in Deng's reforms were the fact that Mao struggled so hard and sacrificed so many Chinese to make sure that China became a nuclear power. That allowed him to relax Chinese defense spending after the Sino-Vietnamese debacle without unduly fearing the Soviets; the border spat with Vietnam gave China the ability to show its willingness to use force, while its nuclear arsenal deterred the Soviets.

The Indians, as we've said many times, should stop focusing on these petty nationalistic issues and begin focusing on growth. An India that defends itself with its nukes can do so, because it is no longer capable of easy military expansion.

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As far as the Indians go, try Ibsen's A Wild Duck and his concept of the lifelie. The Indians are necessarily delusional because how else can they live in a shithole? You take the lifelie from them, perhaps some of them will become seriously progressive reformers, but the majority of them will become nihilists.

A great interview with Pravin Sawhney. A year old but very relevant

twineedle said:

Satellite images confirm that China has retreated from the LAC, well within its own territory

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So... first you cede territory to China, and then you claim China is "retreating" into the territory you just ceded to it...?

Is this like the Bollywood version of Blackadder?

Indian soldier: "Sir, the enemy just 'retreated' straight into our capitol."

Indian general: "Brilliant. Send out terms demanding their surrender!"

Mohsin77 said:

So... first you cede territory to China, and then you claim China is "retreating" into the territory you just ceded to it...?

Is this like the Bollywood version of Blackadder?

Indian soldier: "Sir, the enemy just 'retreated' straight into our capitol."

Indian general: "Brilliant. Send out terms demanding their surrender!"

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I'm beginning to think that most bhakts genuinely don't realise this. When they carry on with the whole "China said we attacked them on their side of LAC" they don't actually realise that's China's definition of the LAC (which India has now agreed to) and about 12km inside India's definition of the LAC... inside India's claimed land. Thick and stupid bunch honestly.

ougoah said:

I'm beginning to think that most bhakts genuinely don't realise this. When they carry on with the whole "China said we attacked them on their side of LAC" they don't actually realise that's China's definition of the LAC (which India has now agreed to) and about 12km inside India's definition of the LAC... inside India's claimed land. Thick and stupid bunch honestly.

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Why? All nationalists are this way. I think the biggest message sent to the Indian side is that they don't have military parity, which is why I'm saying they should just go expand their nuclear stockpile and be done with it.

I mean, I tend to analogize India vs China to China vs Japan in the late ROC era. China clearly didn't have military parity compared to the Japanese Empire, but they still sought a "spined" policy, even up to the point where the Japanese launched a full-scale invasion and beat the crap out of RoCA units.

Just because China then was weak, didn't mean that they didn't manage to win the war, because they managed to bog down hundreds of thousands of Japanese troops and keep them stuck there until the Americans dealt the deathblow.

Likewise, simply because India is weak doesn't mean they're not someone to be respected in terms of their military strength. Sure, China can neutralize them, or, at great cost, get the Pakistanis Kashmir back, but is it worth the cost in terms of money and lives?

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Basically the thing with negotiation and so on is that both sides should walk out thinking they're the winner. Everyone gets what they want, or the negotiation keeps going. The Indians are proud and all that, and they'll remain proud; the number of them you have to kill to change the calculus is cost-prohibitive. If the Indians want to Ah Q themselves into thinking they've gotten a spiritual victory, then why not let them? If not, the Ladakh conflict keeps on going.

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Right now, what I think the Chinese did was basically a probing action into the Indians, looking to see how they'd react. And the results are good for the Chinese, while the Indians declared victory, they were extremely conciliatory when it came to the policy elites. The policy elites stated that the Chinese had 10x their military strength and Modi kept claiming that the Chinese took no Indian land; i.e, he wanted to avoid a confrontation.

This, likewise, is good for future relations because it shows an Indian willingness to make concessions and negotiate. It's just important to note that whatever results come out of the negotiation, the Indian nationalists are going to keep on bragging they got the better deal. Don't let it get to you, all that matters is that China gets its strategic goals.

Guys I've argued with Vietnamese nationalists (most resistance) and Korean nationalists (most stubborn), for decades in internet flame wars. Indian nationalists are the biggest waste of time. Don't even bother, treat it as entertainment in the extent which humanity can believe in there own lies.
At least Viet's and Koreans try to use logic, however warped. Indian nationalists just leave you speechless.

In other words, from this situation it's obvious that the Indians should nuke up and get it over with. They need to spend a lot of money to match Chinese capabilities conventionally, while a couple of thermonuclear weapons pointed at Beijing and Shanghai are enough to deter a run-of-the-mill invasion.

I think from the outside calculus, the Indians have three choices. They can accede to all Chinese demands, which the Indians will resolutely refuse to do. They can build up conventional military defensive capabilities, which is exorbitantly expensive. Or, they can build up a nuclear capability and switch to nuclear deterrence, which is relatively cheap and simple compared to a full military build-up.

Inst said:

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In other words, from this situation it's obvious that the Indians should nuke up and get it over with. They need to spend a lot of money to match Chinese capabilities conventionally, while a couple of thermonuclear weapons pointed at Beijing and Shanghai are enough to deter a run-of-the-mill invasion.

I think from the outside calculus, the Indians have three choices. They can accede to all Chinese demands, which the Indians will resolutely refuse to do. They can build up conventional military defensive capabilities, which is exorbitantly expensive. Or, they can build up a nuclear capability and switch to nuclear deterrence, which is relatively cheap and simple compared to a full military build-up.

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If they nuke up they could expect possible sanctions from the U.S. and other Western nations (already happened in the late 90s).