Patrol Point 14 seems to be the site of the incident. The latest reports in previous days and weeks have stated that the Chinese took the heights on the Chinese side of the LAC and encamped, whereas in the past they would simply patrol. I am not inclined to believe that the Chinese troops crossed the LAC to the other side. It does appear, as Indian media have reported, that it was the Indian troops who became upset that the Chinese had not de-camped and returned back down from PP14, but had instead remained. That appeared to the Indian troops to have violated the de-escalation agreement. As a result, the Indian troops CROSSED over to the Chinese side of PP14, which is where the violent clash took place. This makes sense because usually the separation of LAC occurs at the most physically untenable position beyond which neither side could maintain an advantage. In this case, it was unfortunately a cliff face, and not surprisingly an all out brawl resulted in several soldiers falling over the ledge. There was also mention of a landslide / collapse wholesale of the cliff ledge.
Ladakh Flash Point
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Patrol Point 14 seems to be the site of the incident. The latest reports in previous days and weeks have stated that the Chinese took the heights on the Chinese side of the LAC and encamped, whereas in the past they would simply patrol. I am not inclined to believe that the Chinese troops crossed the LAC to the other side. It does appear, as Indian media have reported, that it was the Indian troops who became upset that the Chinese had not de-camped and returned back down from PP14, but had instead remained. That appeared to the Indian troops to have violated the de-escalation agreement. As a result, the Indian troops CROSSED over to the Chinese side of PP14, which is where the violent clash took place. This makes sense because usually the separation of LAC occurs at the most physically untenable position beyond which neither side could maintain an advantage. In this case, it was unfortunately a cliff face, and not surprisingly an all out brawl resulted in several soldiers falling over the ledge. There was also mention of a landslide / collapse wholesale of the cliff ledge.
That logic doesn't make sense.
The Chinese had already won, so should be satisfied with the situation.
Logically, it would be the Indians who would be seething and spoiling for a fight.
My point was that the Indians haven't accepted that (opponent always gets a vote remember?) and I suspect this whole affair was one Indian group pushing too far and needing to be reminded of the actual reality of the situation. If they take the fight to you for no real reason, obviously you're going to fight back? So make a lesson. Once done, there's no need to humiliate them - that's asking for an emotional backlash and escalation for needless deaths in a potential shooting war.
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Here's the real issue. Somebody is telling the Chinese troops to hold their position on the LAC. By the way, minutiae regarding exactly which physical location constitutes the LAC may have differing perceptions on both sides. PP14 threatens the DBSO road, which India is very sensitive. If the Chinese troops continue to stay there this summer, the potential for future skirmishes remain. Ultimately, if the Chinese troops do not leave, it would be up the India to forcibly remove them. And that is where escalation will occur. The other outcome is if India accepts a permanent presence of Chinese troops not only at PP14, but all along the LAC. Modi is between a rock and a hard place.
But does India actually want to seek a confrontation with China, which is much more superior militarily? Thats why I think the India gov wants a quiet way out of this thrashing ... if they call for war and bloodshed and cannot back it up, wouldnt it lower their credibility even more?
I don't mean to sound critical of you, but this question of "credibility" touched on something that's been bothering me for a while. Credibility with whom? If you mean internally, then Modi has nothing to fear because his opposition is even weaker than he is. If you mean externally, then India already has zero credibility with anyone in the region. The power disparity between China and India is obvious to everybody. India's "credibility" with America doesn't come from being a country that means what it says and backs up its words with steel, it comes from being a large, populous, and poor country bordering China - it's literally nothing more than cannon fodder. Cannon fodder's job isn't to be credible, it's to soak up bullets. In fact, India's silly grandiosity makes it a more suitable tool for America since it's so easy to manipulate.
plawolf
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The markets are not really taking this clash into consideration because market intelligence is hyper rational and realistic and doesn’t care about political BS and spin unless they can gain from it.
If you look at this clash from a brutally honest risk assessment point of view, it doesn’t really affect world markets in much because India cannot threaten any Chinese economically relevant areas. China can threaten and cripple significant parts of the Indian economy if it chose to, but India isn’t economically important enough for that to have much bearing on global economics even if China totally trashed all of northern India.
China and India can go all out along the boarder and it would have next to no adverse impact on Chinese economic performance or output in the short to even medium term. China would only need to start converting civilian economic production to military if it was playing to conquer all of India, but that is not remotely on the cards.
So, if the worst case scenario isn’t even that bad from a Chinese and global economics point of view, it’s easy to understand why the markets are not reacting at all right now.
There might be some short term fluctuations in the coming days and weeks, but that would be more down to big players having worked out strategies to make money shorting the crisis and using their influence and financial muscle to amplify any actual market reactions to maximise profits. In the medium to long run, as I said above, the markets just won’t take much notice.
If you look at this clash from a brutally honest risk assessment point of view, it doesn’t really affect world markets in much because India cannot threaten any Chinese economically relevant areas. China can threaten and cripple significant parts of the Indian economy if it chose to, but India isn’t economically important enough for that to have much bearing on global economics even if China totally trashed all of northern India.
China and India can go all out along the boarder and it would have next to no adverse impact on Chinese economic performance or output in the short to even medium term. China would only need to start converting civilian economic production to military if it was playing to conquer all of India, but that is not remotely on the cards.
So, if the worst case scenario isn’t even that bad from a Chinese and global economics point of view, it’s easy to understand why the markets are not reacting at all right now.
There might be some short term fluctuations in the coming days and weeks, but that would be more down to big players having worked out strategies to make money shorting the crisis and using their influence and financial muscle to amplify any actual market reactions to maximise profits. In the medium to long run, as I said above, the markets just won’t take much notice.
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