Ladakh Flash Point

ougoah said:

There have been no more developments, just pages and pages of Indian media and personality bravado and claims. How else will this thread end up?

If new serious and real developments come to light, we will be discussing those. In the meantime, ignore the thread and posts if you are unhappy reading them.

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It's not for you to say what I, or anybody else, should or should not do here if we are within the normal acceptable bounds.
There should be at least a decorum and manners to the audience here.
We can't be unwilling collateral damage in this Jerry Springer-esque show.

zgx09t said:

It's not for you to say what I, or anybody else, should or should not do here if we are within the normal acceptable bounds.
There should be at least a decorum and manners to the audience here.
We can't be unwilling collateral damage in this Jerry Springer-esque show.

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Do you even realise you are the one who started telling people what their posts are and, what should or should not be posted and said here?

If there's stuff you don't like reading, ignore it. It's not telling you what to do, it's just advice young man. And you openly called for the censorship and banning of another member who although occasionally very wrong and annoying, has still offered more value to this forum and been here much longer than you have.

ougoah said:

Do you even realise you are the one who started telling people what their posts are and, what should or should not be posted and said here?

If there's stuff you don't like reading, ignore it. It's not telling you what to do, it's just advice young man. And you openly called for the censorship and banning of another member who although occasionally very wrong and annoying, has still offered more value to this forum and been here much longer than you have.

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As you admit, if another member repeatedly steps out of the bounds we can certainly voice our concerns, or otherwise let our stance be known. That's perfectly normal in my opinion. Keep it within reasonable bounds and no issues there. That's the whole point of having political topics opened up for discussions. Behave and show some level of comportment and maturity to handle slippery slope subjects. You can be robust but consider others as well when you are feeling good and lucky at someone else's expense.
I have no comments for the rest though, as you are entitled to have your own opinions. Not a problem at all.

Inst said:

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This came up on Google News as part of an article lambasting the overly nationalistic Indian response to the Galwan clash.

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This is such a one sided article, takes at face value all Indian media talking points, does not give any reading space to the Chinese view of events. Accuses the Chinese of being constant liars, and accuses the Chinese of being aggressive without presenting both sides.

What could be equally as likey was that India felt emboldened by the dolkam event in 2017 and tried to change the status quo by taking advantage of the coronovirus in China earlier this year and tried to take small chunks of land little by little. They didn't think China (with HK, SCS, coronavirus, trade war with US/5 eyes nations) would push back but they did and caught India by surprise.

MortyandRick said:

This is such a one sided article, takes at face value all Indian media talking points, does not give any reading space to the Chinese view of events. Accuses the Chinese of being constant liars, and accuses the Chinese of being aggressive without presenting both sides.

What could be equally as likey was that India felt emboldened by the dolkam event in 2017 and tried to change the status quo by taking advantage of the coronovirus in China earlier this year and tried to take small chunks of land little by little. They didn't think China (with HK, SCS, coronavirus, trade war with US/5 eyes nations) would push back but they did and caught India by surprise.

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The line I get from more informed Indians is that the Chinese responded to Indian road-building and it got out of control.

I honestly don't care about the propaganda positions from either side, and I highly appreciate that the Chinese are giving very minimal coverage to the dispute on the LAC.

What matters is the reality on the ground. What are the options available for India? What are the options available for China? What's the relative force strength?

The idea presented there that India can do nothing about it and has to subtly deescalate the fight is probably the correct one. The Indians can fortify their positions, but they really can't retake Galwan without spurring reescalation, and if they spur reescalation they won't have a chance of force superiority until the Rafales arrive, and even then, the moment J-20s get there the Rafales are either contained or toast.

All I really see is China giving a gift and a warning to Modi at the same time; the Ladakh crisis takes Indian media attention off the coronavirus crisis, while at the same time the Chinese are making clear what the relative force strength is.

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Here's the actual media article I was looking for regarding Ladakh:


For me, the most important fact is that Modi never chose to escalate the Ladakh crisis. It suggests that Indian policy elites are being restrained over Ladakh, but it's the Indian media that's choosing to escalate this into an issue.

Inst said:

China's fear is being surrounded. Russia, even with its antiquated military, can put military pressure on China and distract China from its core interest which is the Far Eastern region. If Russia will eventually unite with Europe and become its own independent pole, it's a problem because a Russia with EU economic power backing it can actually produce modern hardware in numbers.

For Russia, its only true strategic fear should be from the East Asia region. Russia has had traditionally used its Russian winter to protect itself, but guess how cold Harbin is? Sure, Russia is colder, but it's not severely colder than the northernmost parts of China, and moreover, Russia has a vast and undeveloped backcountry. Guess who's facing this backcountry? No, not the Europeans, it's the East Asians.

So, I mean, I expect the Sino-Russian alliance to break down eventually, but hopefully not for decades. By then, Chinese defenses against the United States should already have been moved into Taiwan and Japan (i.e, China reunifies with Taiwan and Japan is part of the Chinese sphere of influence), and China should have expanded massively enough that if the Russians want to put troops on the border, the Chinese can easily afford to put tanks and artillery on the border as well.

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What you're essentially talking about is a Russian-European rapprochement.

That is not likely to happen.

Firstly, it would require Russia to accept the loss of Ukraine into the EU trade sphere and the subsequent loss of influence. Plus Ukraine is only 500km from Moscow, which is potentially a single military campaign away.

Russia going a step further and joining the European Union won't happen either. It requires too many unacceptable changes to internal Russian affairs. The Russian trade zone would also have to be dismantled and the EU one implemented.
And Russia would still end up being outvoted most of the time by everyone else in EU decision making.

Russia is already in the position of being a defacto resource appendage to a much larger EU economy and population.

Accepting an even more subservient position goes completely against Russia's entrenched interest groups and the Russian sense of itself as a great and independent nation.

So in summary, Europe is adjacent to the core Russian population and economic heartlands.

It is Europe (not China) that potentially poses the biggest threat to the loss of Russian independence, whether that is through economic or military means.

siegecrossbow said:

You've answered one of my questions with your post! Looks like the Indian military doesn’t have a proper chart for ammunitions in high altitude conditions. The justification provided in the video is that it takes tens of thousands of test rounds to calibrate a weapon and since India imports most of its defense equipment, there aren’t enough spare ammunition for calibration.

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The explanation given on the Balakot strike is not necessarily true because there are other compelling explanation for the error. One of the better explanation is from the following article.

Such errors can occur for various reasons, including by neglecting to convert coordinates from one coordinate system, or datum, to another (a datum shift). One potential candidate in this case is the difference between GPS ellipsoidal height and orthometric height based on mean sea level (see

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for an explanation). In northeastern Pakistan, the difference is around 33 metres, although in many areas the difference is not precisely mapped so it may be larger or smaller at a point such as Balakot.

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India has a lot of actual experience in high attitude conflict over the years and is well aware of the need to recalibrate their weapons to adjust for high attitude air density. The following is an excerpt from a book written many years ago on the 1971 conflict written by Lt Gen KP Gandeth on this issue.

AndrewS said:

What you're essentially talking about is a Russian-European rapprochement.

That is not likely to happen.

Firstly, it would require Russia to accept the loss of Ukraine into the EU trade sphere and the subsequent loss of influence. Plus Ukraine is only 500km from Moscow, which is potentially a single military campaign away.

Russia going a step further and joining the European Union won't happen either. It requires too many unacceptable changes to internal Russian affairs. The Russian trade zone would also have to be dismantled and the EU one implemented.
And Russia would still end up being outvoted most of the time by everyone else in EU decision making.

Russia is already in the position of being a defacto resource appendage to a much larger EU economy and population.

Accepting an even more subservient position goes completely against Russia's entrenched interest groups and the Russian sense of itself as a great and independent nation.

So in summary, Europe is adjacent to the core Russian population and economic heartlands.

It is Europe (not China) that potentially poses the biggest threat to the loss of Russian independence, whether that is through economic or military means.

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This is not likely to happen... when? For instance, in the next 5 years I see EU Russian rapprochement as extremely unlikely. In the next 10 years, still very unlikely.

In the long-run, when you look at strategic tendencies, the EU and Russia are a good match for each other. The only question is on whose terms the rapprochement occurs; i.e, is it because the Putin regime collapses and the EU picks up the pieces? Or is it because the EU gets fed up with the United States and moves into Russia's orbit? Or do the EU and Russia find mutually acceptable terms without the EU becoming satellited to Russia?

Inst said:

This is not likely to happen... when? For instance, in the next 5 years I see EU Russian rapprochement as extremely unlikely. In the next 10 years, still very unlikely.

In the long-run, when you look at strategic tendencies, the EU and Russia are a good match for each other. The only question is on whose terms the rapprochement occurs; i.e, is it because the Putin regime collapses and the EU picks up the pieces? Or is it because the EU gets fed up with the United States and moves into Russia's orbit? Or do the EU and Russia find mutually acceptable terms without the EU becoming satellited to Russia?

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That you are asking these questions demonstrates you haven't already though through the scenarios.

The Russian sense of greatness and independence still remains, even if Putin goes.
That is true of Putin, the USSR and Imperial Russia before it.

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Why would the EU ever move into Russia's orbit?
Russia is a lot smaller and poorer than the European Union.

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And you are talking about the EU being a satellite to Russia.
That demonstrates a complete lack of understanding as to the balance of power.

The EU has a population which is 3x larger than Russia.
The EU has a GDP which is 5-10x larger than Russia, depending on how you measure it.

In any close relationship with Europe, it is Russia that becomes the satellite.

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Please think through your analyses before posting them.

Seems they are moving back