Ladakh Flash Point

Biscuits · Jul 5, 2020

Inst said:
The problem is that Indians and Chinese have different views of reality. There's a minority of Indian opinion that accepts that Indian nationalism spurred the 1962 conflict, but the majority of Indians view China as a threat over a minuscule border conflict, ignoring the history of Indian hegemonism over the last 60 or so years.

I'm not sure if things changed drastically in India, an Indian contact told me that India has never been good for freedom of speech, but the arrest of a Ladakhi Congress official for cheering for China to invade says a lot about the current opinion climate. Freedom of speech, strictly speaking, is only guaranteed from the government, but not necessarily from the mob and the court of public opinion.

@ougoah: After the Ladakh incident and the spurring of Indian nationalism, I sincerely wish that an Indian Congress government, more nationalistic and more vicious, were in power and that they'd give the Chinese the greenlight to smash Indian border troops with a sufficient provocation.

This is an absurd mess. The best way out for China is for coronavirus to cripple India and for China to gift vaccines as part of coronavirus diplomacy, and for it to actually work.

It is incredibly difficult to see how China can extricate India from the Quad now. I don't view Chinese demands as unreasonable, and before this incident I wouldn't have imagined how Sinophobia in India would have gotten so out of control.

=====

Cmon, you and me know the comparison with nazi Japan is absurd and insulting to ww2 veterans.

Do you think its easier to take photos in 1940 or in 1979? You can find thousands of photos documenting japanese atrocities, now find me a single one showing Chinese Army soldiers slaughtering Viet civilians or doing anything questionable.

Vietnam lost badly but that doesn't mean they're victims. If viet commanders had a button that would let them kill 60 000 PLA soldiers and bomb southern China, they would have pressed it in a heartbeat. No investigation has ever questioned the conduct of the PLA in 1979, unlike USA China did not even put mines everywhere or use chemical weapons, even though the former would be legal in a war.

It would also be absurd for China to give vaccines for free to an enemy country that has instituted racist bans against their population. India can buy vaccines for market price after unbanning all unfairly banned companies, compensating them for lost business, and reversing apartheid like hotel restriction on Chinese.

zyun8288 · Jul 5, 2020

I have a question to fellow Indian members.

From what I gathered by reading Indian news media and web forums, India have achieved a major victory against China in the last 1-2 months already. Ok, India lost 20 lives, but they have killed several times more Chinese.

So why Indians, including Modi, keep on behaving like a deeply wounded victim? Come on, China has lost far more. India should be celebrating this biggest victory against China.

Brumby · Jul 5, 2020

Inst said:
The other part is that the Indians are plain delusional; on CDF, a non-Chinese poster mentioned that the Indians are delusional as to their relative power compared to China. They seriously think they have military parity, whereas a strong factor restraining China's hand is the threat of sanctions from the West if they escalate the Indian conflict fully.

When it comes to the military force equation, India DOES have more airbases close to China, but China has a few key tools at its disposal:

-China has a massive superiority in SPGs / SPHs, provided they actually want to move their equipment to the sector. China has way more modern SPG / SPH systems than India does, and most of these are long-ranged 155mm guns, whereas India has a good number of long-ranged rocket artillery systems (but not more than China's), but fewer 155mm caliber SPGs and a substantial number of 122mm or 105mm guns, too short-ranged to win an artillery duel. India also has a substantial number of towed artillery, but these can't shoot and scoot.

-China has more technologically advanced aircraft. India does have more airbases closer to the border than China, but China can, first, bombard these with ballistic missiles, and second, China has more modern systems. India mostly has Russian-built aircraft that are 4th generation. The best Indian Air Force equipment until the Rafales arrive on July 27th is the Su-30MKI, which has some Israeli electronics that may make it superior to Chinese Su-35s in the ECM-sphere.

However, Indian warplanes carry 4th generation missiles. Chinese missiles are 4.5th or 5th generation; the Chinese might not have a missile inventory more "advanced" than the United States in terms of electronic warfare, but, first, the PL-10 ASR is superior to the R-74Ms the Indians use, having 90 degree off-boresight with LOAL, rear-targeting, and anti-SAM functions, and more importantly, the R-74Ms purportedly have a 40 km aerodynamic range. The PL-10 ASR has a 20 km effective range and likely has a 60 km aerodynamic range. Second, the PL-15s outclass the R-77s the Indians use, likely being on par or superior to the Russian experimental K-77Ms for the Su-57.

The only missile the Indians will have that can match the PL-15 would be the Meteor coming in with the Rafales, but it'd be available in few numbers, and the Chinese J-20 would have a half to 1 generation advantage over the Rafales.

-More importantly, the Chinese don't even need to win the air war by a huge margin. The key Chinese capability is their superiority in artillery firepower, and artillery puts out more firepower for cost than aircraft does. Where the air war matters is that the Chinese SPG advantage is not usable if the InAF conducts airstrikes on Chinese SPGs; SPGs can counter towed-artillery quite effectively, but can do nothing against strike aircraft.

In other words, despite its inferiority in airbasing on the Sino-Indian border, China only needs to stop the InAF from bombing its aircraft effectively. And that's where the Chinese technological advantage comes in; the modern (4th generation) Indian aircraft can all be countered effectively by Chinese 4.5th and 5th generation aircraft and equipment. Less modern Indian aircraft can be effectively countered by Chinese ground-based air defense.

I think the frequent expressed view in SDF that any prospective border conflict between India and China will likely be one sided is rather presumptive. The outcome of any conflict is always subject to the fog of war and any view based on raw numbers is rather superficial in attitude as there are many unknowns which can swing the outcome. Although China has numerical superiority overall, its forces and in particular its air force is distributed to five military regions. The Western Military Region in which it has responsibility over the recent border incident has a lower number of available combat planes that it can tasked relative to the Indian side. Modern conflict such as any escalation at the border will very quickly involve the respective air forces and gaining air superiority is important. Whilst it can be argued that China can surge its numbers by transferring from other military regions, there is a limit to it due to dispersed geographical security demands. More importantly there are physical limits due to shortage of available air bases to accommodate any surge.

Key to achieving air superiority is the ability to sustain air operations by way of sortie generation. On this score the Chinese is constrained by a number of key factors. As mentioned, there are limited airbases in the Lhasa region and unfortunately all the bases are located basically at high elevations of 3000 m and above. Due to air density there are significant load penalties on fuel and/or weapons loadout. Additionally, of the five available air bases only two are located at a distance to each other that can be considered operationally supportive. In other words, operations out of non- available supportive air bases will greatly impact planning and constrain mission tasking. Finally, to my knowledge only the Konga airbase has blast pens. This effectively limits prospective basing of any J-20 to this airbase should China decides to utilise them. This airbase I believe is well within the strike range of Brahmos even when launched from within India’s LAC.

The other main consideration is a list of unknowns. We don’t know the respective air forces and their capability to execute SEAD/DEAD missions. We don’t know their respective capabilities with their targeting pods and weapon precision in executing CAS and strike missions especially at night. We don’t know their respective air space management capabilities in preventing fratricide which historical examples has demonstrated to be as much as 20 % of total air losses. Adoption of long range AAM such as PL-15 and modern IADS will just greatly add to the problem. We don’t know their respective data link capabilities which can be a force multiplier. We don’t know their respective EW capabilities which potentially can blind sensors and degrade battlespace situational awareness. Lastly, conflict at high attitude is unique and we know can significantly impact systems precision accuracy and recalibration is needed to adjust to the unique environment.

gadgetcool5 · Jul 5, 2020

MrCrazyBoyRavi said:
looks like Chinese app ban has fueled Indian domestic app market growth.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China should reflect back on its own history to see what outsourcing can cause damage to your own local industries. Chinese smartphone companies are setting up factories , research centers in India and now India can produce enough smartphone for its domestic consumption. May be in few years Indian companies will come up with their own smartphone and will destroy Chinese smartphone industry.

Strategic disaster for China. It has permanently lost what will soon be the world's biggest market (in terms of potential consumers, and yes India will eventually grow) and jump-started its competitors. This is historic. This alone dwarfs anything related to actual Ladakh.

AndrewS · Jul 5, 2020

Brumby said:
I think the frequent expressed view in SDF that any prospective border conflict between India and China will likely be one sided is rather presumptive. The outcome of any conflict is always subject to the fog of war and any view based on raw numbers is rather superficial in attitude as there are many unknowns which can swing the outcome. Although China has numerical superiority overall, its forces and in particular its air force is distributed to five military regions. The Western Military Region in which it has responsibility over the recent border incident has a lower number of available combat planes that it can tasked relative to the Indian side. Modern conflict such as any escalation at the border will very quickly involve the respective air forces and gaining air superiority is important. Whilst it can be argued that China can surge its numbers by transferring from other military regions, there is a limit to it due to dispersed geographical security demands. More importantly there are physical limits due to shortage of available air bases to accommodate any surge.

Key to achieving air superiority is the ability to sustain air operations by way of sortie generation. On this score the Chinese is constrained by a number of key factors. As mentioned, there are limited airbases in the Lhasa region and unfortunately all the bases are located basically at high elevations of 3000 m and above. Due to air density there are significant load penalties on fuel and/or weapons loadout. Additionally, of the five available air bases only two are located at a distance to each other that can be considered operationally supportive. In other words, operations out of non- available supportive air bases will greatly impact planning and constrain mission tasking. Finally, to my knowledge only the Konga airbase has blast pens. This effectively limits prospective basing of any J-20 to this airbase should China decides to utilise them. This airbase I believe is well within the strike range of Brahmos even when launched from within India’s LAC.

The other main consideration is a list of unknowns. We don’t know the respective air forces and their capability to execute SEAD/DEAD missions. We don’t know their respective capabilities with their targeting pods and weapon precision in executing CAS and strike missions especially at night. We don’t know their respective air space management capabilities in preventing fratricide which historical examples has demonstrated to be as much as 20 % of total air losses. Adoption of long range AAM such as PL-15 and modern IADS will just greatly add to the problem. We don’t know their respective data link capabilities which can be a force multiplier. We don’t know their respective EW capabilities which potentially can blind sensors and degrade battlespace situational awareness. Lastly, conflict at high attitude is unique and we know can significantly impact systems precision accuracy and recalibration is needed to adjust to the unique environment.

All very true.

But if China-India are in a limited war in Kashmir/Ladakh, expect the Pakistan Army and Air Force to start operations against Kashmir.
After all, Pakistan can't lose if it has Chinese backing.

Also, what is China's theory of victory in a China-India war over Kashmir/Ladakh?

Another thrashing would be a short to medium term lesson for India, at the cost of more Indian hostility.
What would be better is for the Indians to acknowledge they morally deserved to lose to the Chinese Army.

That means Kashmiri independence from the occupying Indian Army forces, whether that is achieved by the Chinese Army or Pakistan Army.

Looking at the geography, the Kashmir Valley is less than 100km from the lowland plains on the Pakistan border.
So long-range SAMs would be able to deny India the airspace over the Kashmir Valley.
The combined airforces would be able to obtain air superiority over the Kashmir valley.
There are only a handful of mountain roads from India to the Kashmir Valley, so it should be easy to block these roads.

So what happens to land armies that lose control of the air?

Pakistan could use airmobile army units and helicopters to reach the Kashmir Valley.

Then what happens to the Indian occupation forces, given they are cutoff from resupply from India AND massively outnumbered by 7 million Kashmiri muslims AND face Pakistan Army units that can resupply?

And even if the Kashmir Valley somehow stayed under Indian control, we could expect a large supply of guns, ammunition and explosives to be available to the Kashmiri population in the aftermath.

AndrewS · Jul 5, 2020

gadgetcool5 said:
Strategic disaster for China. It has permanently lost what will soon be the world's biggest market (in terms of potential consumers, and yes India will eventually grow) and jump-started its competitors. This is historic. This alone dwarfs anything related to actual Ladakh.

Whilst India may escape the middle-income trap, there are currently no indications that it will.

As per my previous analysis, I think India will most likely end up in the middle-income trap like Brazil.
So India would be a significant market, but still remain smaller than the USA or EU for example.

India allowing foreign companies to completely dominate Indian industries also won't be be allowed by the Indian government.
That applies whether those companies are from China, America or Europe.

---

And strategically, it is actually an absolute disaster for the Indian government and Indian military.

India now has to take seriously that China and Pakistan will coordinate military operations in Kashmir-Ladakh.
In such a scenario India is going to lose any war.

Is the US really going to support the Indian Army with a vicious campaign against an insurgency by the 7 million muslims in the Kashmir Valley who want independence from India?

Furthermore, the Indian government won't be able to hide that India was wrong to try and deserved to lose a war to China/Pakistan.

If India has to acknowledge it was wrong, it would be a huge improvement to China-India relations, which is today dominated by the narrative of an aggressive China attacking an innocent India in 1962.

Chin evan · Jul 5, 2020

AndrewS said:
Whilst India may escape the middle-income trap, there are currently no indications that it will.

As per my previous analysis, I think India will most likely end up in the middle-income trap like Brazil.
So India would be a significant market, but still remain smaller than the USA or EU for example.

India allowing foreign companies to completely dominate Indian industries also won't be be allowed by the Indian government.
That applies whether those companies are from China, America or Europe.

---

And strategically, it is actually an absolute disaster for the Indian government and Indian military.

India now has to take seriously that China and Pakistan will coordinate military operations in Kashmir-Ladakh.
In such a scenario India is going to lose any war.

Is the US really going to support the Indian Army with a vicious campaign against an insurgency by the 7 million muslims in the Kashmir Valley who want independence from India?

Furthermore, the Indian government won't be able to hide that India was wrong to try and deserved to lose a war to China/Pakistan.

If India has to acknowledge it was wrong, it would be a huge improvement to China-India relations, which is today dominated by the narrative of an aggressive China attacking an innocent India in 1962.

Their ego is already way over the top for them to acknowledge anything, the Henderson report is a clear proof of that.

ougoah · Jul 5, 2020

All Indian airbases, even those in Kerala, are well within range of Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles. What makes Brahmos impossible to intercept?

In truth, the Chinese side can throw a lot more missiles at the airbase problem. IAF enjoy unquestionable numerical and geographic advantage. How that translates to real world gains, who knows but chances are, nothing at all. Before the MKIs can really do any damage, what is stopping the PLA from leveling every Indian airfield on the entire northern half? It's not numbers or ability. India has very little air defense. S-400 being the best chance at intercepting anything and even that's a huge gamble, not that there are even enough S-400s in India. Spyders aren't exactly designed to intercept hypersonic glide vehicle packed DF-26/21 are they? Spyders have so far been only effective in destroying Indian helicopters. Akash?! lol please. How many Akash are around and what have they demonstrated so far outside of trials involving shooting down basically static dummy targets in the most friendly of environments? The Indians shoot at each other more than they shoot at the opposition when they are operating under stress and EW.

For every single Brahmos India can throw at China, China can throw quite a lot of more capable and faster missiles back. So Brahmos talk becomes a null threat doesn't it? It's like saying you better watch out because I can shoot you with a bb gun when the other guy can strafe all day at you with a Type 1130. Brumby have you looked at the number disparity when it comes to missiles and ranges?

The fight is so one sided, India hasn't even bothered considering military action or posturing for one. They've given up on military engagement and put all their eggs in a trade war already.

It's hilarious hearing Indians and fanboys bang on about "Brahmos" when we all know it's a missile offered to and rejected by China decades ago. It's crap by 2000s standards. Does CJ-10 not exist? What about DF-DZ? What about DF-100? What about the hundreds of short, medium, and intermediate ranged ballistic missiles in PLA which India doesn't have apart from a handful of failed intermediate ranged Agni projects. PLA has HQ-9, HQ-16, HQ-xx to intercept those things. Even if a few slip through those nets, there's HQ-17, and LD-2000. A few sites may get hits but for every hit China takes, India will take 100. GJ-11 stealth UCAVs can deal Indian bases more damage than all of India's Brahmos can to Chinese bases. PLA doesn't even really need to open its war chest that wide to annihilate India. The disparity is even bigger than that between the US and China in the 90s!

Why do you think Modi announced so publicly that "no one" is in their land despite China now taking half of India's claims at Pangong lake and half of Galwan, both of which were claimed by India until Modi's surrender of those territories. Why do you think Modi doesn't have the courage to even utter the word "China" in his public announcements on this issue.

longmarch · Jul 5, 2020

Inst said:
And I'll highlight, it's hypocritical for China to attempt to liberate Indian-occupied Kashmir because China uses notions of legality and suzerainty to lay claim to parts of the old Qing Empire when the parts are non-Han and have previously stated their desire for independence. The Chinese claim to Tibet is just as "founded" as the fact that parts of Kashmir are under Indian occupation because Kashmir was ruled by a Hindu Maharajah instead of a Muslim one.

You are mixing things up. Just some people having the ”desire for independence” doesn't make you independent, even de facto independent is not enough for you to be accepted by international law. Fact is no country in the world think Tibet is not part of China even in China's weak days, not India, not United States, no matter how some people tries to twist history.

And Indian occupation or an India ruler doesn't automatically make a place part of India either. Otherwise, China can claim part of Indonesia historically belongs to China because of a Chinese ruler. Now that would be equivalent and laughable.

I'm not saying some of your other points are not valid though. You might represent how some of the third parties think. There are both domestic politics and geopolitics at play here.

longmarch · Jul 5, 2020

gadgetcool5 said:
Strategic disaster for China. It has permanently lost what will soon be the world's biggest market (in terms of potential consumers, and yes India will eventually grow) and jump-started its competitors. This is historic. This alone dwarfs anything related to actual Ladakh.

Look at the words you chose:
Disaster
Permanently
Soon
Biggest

Then potential and eventually.

That's really how YOU think.

Ladakh Flash Point

Biscuits

Colonel

zyun8288

Junior Member

Brumby

Major

gadgetcool5

Senior Member

AndrewS

Brigadier

AndrewS

Brigadier

Chin evan

New Member

ougoah

Brigadier

longmarch

Junior Member

longmarch

Junior Member