Ladakh Flash Point

Real powers (India doesn't quite qualify) know that land border changes is too expensive to hold down even if you can change them temporarily. Everything has shifted to soft power, wealth, political influence, and the military muscle to back those qualities rather than expensive land wars that go nowhere, can you think of a few in the 20th century?

So the USA applies information and psychological warfare on the world. Against China it's less effective, except in HK, so it wages economic and technological warfare on China instead. Military warfare between the two is not happening until one is very obviously stronger than the other and this hasn't been the case since China's mastered the ICBM+SLBM+H bomb combo back in the 1970s. China instead focuses on enriching itself because once ALL of Chinese reach the economic productivity of Americans, it will become 10 Japans in output and STEM dominance. It just needs to do that and shelter itself from the US and its cronies until it reaches this point. If it becomes successful in this endeavor, it will be as influencial and large as the entire western world combined. This is their greatest fear and this is why instead of kinetic war or even psychological and information war, the US wages trade war and tech war on China to best hinder it.

Inst said:

So is your point that China reserves for itself the right to liberate the Kashmiris from their Indian rulers? In reality, China has a declared principle of foreign policy that it doesn't interfere in the internal affairs of others and others, implicitly, should not interfere in China's.

The entire point is that China has never pretended to conduct moral intervention on the basis of human rights. The US might claim Saddam is an asshat, and invade and have him executed for that, but the Chinese have never done so. The Chinese have never gotten involved in the Balkans mess so Kosovars can ethnically cleanse Serbs instead of the other way around.

As I've stated above, the Chinese don't have the forces to push into Kashmir, the Pakistanis don't either, so the Indians can get away with all the atrocities they want in Kashmir because no one with the ability to do so will lift a finger as they're trying to move India into an anti-Chinese alliance.

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What is your problem? YOU are the one making shit up about what reason China has here and putting words in people's mouths. Show me who said China reserves the right to liberate Kashmiris.

Start with that and learn to read and understand and think! Please use your brain.

Inst said:

I mean we can keep on going about the political disputes and the histories of the various regions. Fact of the matter is, Tibet is under Chinese control, has been at least since 1950, and the Chinese are never going to let go unless the CPC implodes, and even then, regional connectivity might allow a successor state to keep the region (and its remoteness and terrain would make it difficult for a rival, regional or otherwise, to seize it from China). Kashmir, likewise, is under Indian control and under the current force set-up, the Pakistani Army is a bleeding joke compared to the Indian one and the Chinese can't get across the Himalayas.

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You need to learn how to use your head.

Why is Indian army and political leadership trying to hide the #LadakhShame ? Modi antics suggest that a conference hall was converted into a Hospital ward(Studio) showing Modi meeting with injured Indian army soldiers.Funny that no Indian soldier had any bandage or life saving equipment normally associated with a ward caring for seriously wounded soldiers.Apparently this conference hall was used for previous Bollywood productions like visit of famous cricket captain Mr Dhoni,wearing the uniform of a Colonel from Indian army.

We were discussing Kashmir, and the fact that many Kashmiris really hate the Delhi government, and if it weren't for the Indian occupation, most of Kashmir would be a part of Pakistan.

I'm just making it clear that it's not something that China can simply exploit given its own situation, and that we shouldn't throw stones out of glass houses.

Mohsin77 said:

Summary:

• 1959, Zhou Enlai offers to accept the McMahon Line in the East, if India accepts China's claims in the West
• Nehru rejects
• 1962 war, China wins but decides to withdraw forces from Ladakh unilaterally, asking India to do the same
• India refuses
• 1976: DMZ and patrolling limits established with new ROEs (including the 'no weapons while patrolling' rule)
• 1993: "LAC" established
• China begins building infrastructure and amassing troops in its new theater command
• India keeps focusing all its energy against Pakistan
• 2010: China declares that it doesn't have a 'border' with India in Ladakh (validating Pakistan's claim on Kashmir.)
• 2015 PLA's strategic reforms begin
• 2017: Doklam happens
• 2019: India unilaterally annexes Kashmir/Ladakh by revoking article 370
• China responds by throwing out the 1993 agreement plus the '62 status quo
• 2020: China advances into Indian territory in multiple places, demanding that India accept its 1959 claim line (only this time, China isn't offering anything in return)

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He is one of the few sane voices left in Indian media,great analysis by Pravin Sawhnei

For those who may be confused by Inst's classic Indian moves - confabulate, deny, distract, re-shift focus, exaggerate, confuse, and generally just making a lot of senseless noise. No, China is not interested in liberating Kashmiris. It is interested in managing India in a way that allows China to settle Indian Chinese borders in China's favour, no further but also no less. Some disputes are now settled while others still remain opened. For China this issue is one of sovereignty and responding to Indian border aggressions from 2019 and how India acted during Bhutan's Doklam issue in 2017. This is also timed when India is further moving into the US camp. The two sections now settled since Modi surrendered them are two of many. They are being used in light of how India really sees China and how India has revealed since 2017 how it wishes to treat China i.e. hinder its BRI project and working towards China's downfall.

Kashmiris are celebrating India's loss because they dislike the Indians and how the Indians treat Kasmiris - murdering on average one every few weeks and torturing many by doing things like tying them to Indian army vehicles and driving around. But this has nothing to do with China. It's associated but not correlated. LAC and the fighting points are in the outer extremes of unpopulated IOK.

Inst said:

We were discussing Kashmir, and the fact that many Kashmiris really hate the Delhi government, and if it weren't for the Indian occupation, most of Kashmir would be a part of Pakistan.

I'm just making it clear that it's not something that China can simply exploit given its own situation, and that we shouldn't throw stones out of glass houses.

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THANK YOU for FINALLY being a straight talker. Just get to the real point instead if pulling roundabout moralistic posturing pish posh.

This has been your point all along. And it is absolutely stupid for the most obvious reasons. Let's start with you finding any source (non Indian) which even suggests that China is exploiting Kashmir. It's not even happening. How is China exploiting Kashmir? It hasn't issued a single statement talking about Kashmiri suffering which is real and ongoing. CCP has not said the word Kashmiri yet.

What you have here is a case of you being deluded and then projecting your personal views and conjecture as gospel and THEN having the intellectual depravity to treat this topic as if it is well accepted by both sides and the members here. Therefore worthy of respect and discussion. The reality is the exact opposite. Again CCP has not even said the word Kasmiri and they have not used moral posturing, a classic information/propaganda weapon of the West AND Indians. You are projecting your own standards and crimes on others. I know if the USA was in place of China or India in this case, then it would have been talking up Kashmir non stop but the CCP has from day 1 stated the same thing, border heated up, casualties on both sides (no specs at all incl Indian losses and captured... how magnanimous of the victor), China will preserve its sovereignty (which includes claims over disputes), and India should dial down the aggression and refrain from trying desperately to get others involved on its behalf.

Waqar Khan said:

He is one of the few sane voices left in Indian media,great analysis by Pravin Sawhnei

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The problem is that Indians and Chinese have different views of reality. There's a minority of Indian opinion that accepts that Indian nationalism spurred the 1962 conflict, but the majority of Indians view China as a threat over a minuscule border conflict, ignoring the history of Indian hegemonism over the last 60 or so years.

I'm not sure if things changed drastically in India, an Indian contact told me that India has never been good for freedom of speech, but the arrest of a Ladakhi Congress official for cheering for China to invade says a lot about the current opinion climate. Freedom of speech, strictly speaking, is only guaranteed from the government, but not necessarily from the mob and the court of public opinion.

@ougoah: After the Ladakh incident and the spurring of Indian nationalism, I sincerely wish that an Indian Congress government, more nationalistic and more vicious, were in power and that they'd give the Chinese the greenlight to smash Indian border troops with a sufficient provocation.

This is an absurd mess. The best way out for China is for coronavirus to cripple India and for China to gift vaccines as part of coronavirus diplomacy, and for it to actually work.

It is incredibly difficult to see how China can extricate India from the Quad now. I don't view Chinese demands as unreasonable, and before this incident I wouldn't have imagined how Sinophobia in India would have gotten so out of control.

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Probably just Indian scaremongering, and even if true, the Chinese are likely just seeking to keep their options open.