Ladakh Flash Point

Inst said:

Does anyone really care about it? It's just a photo-op, everyone stages photo-ops. The only people who care are Pakistani nationalists and the Indian Congress Party who want to use it to poke fun at Modi.

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For Ladakh, the next stage seems to be what the Pakistanis want to do. The best case scenario is that all three parties stand down and work on a negotiated solution over the territorial claims. More likely, what you'll see is a Chinese build-up on Arunachal Pradesh and a Pakistani build-up on Kashmir, and a possible clash started by the Pakistanis.

TBH, Kashmir as is is unstable; it's a Muslim majority territory chafing at the strains of Indian rule, with Pakistan at the border chafing for annexation. It might be better for Pakistan to simply take Kashmir and settle the suit.

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Isn't in at the very least a sign of dishonesty and lack of empathy?

I mean even america out of all countries let their officials visit real patients and talk with them. India doesn't. The fake is also badly done, all the patients sitting there like they're ready to salute the leader, doesn't look like they're sick at all.

@Inst

About what you wrote with Indian politics, the problem is that their thinking is outdated. China can never accomandate them some "sphere of influence" because this isn't 1940 and India isn't imperial Japan, and if they want to take on that role, they will face the same end.

China subscribes to the thinking that says countries regardless of size operate on equal terms, this was the condition that was won with the fall of imperialism and fascism. This is also why China has recently been opposed to the USA.

There isn't any way China can "trade away" sovereign countries like Pakistan just because India thinks they're entitled to them, and they've already taken over a few small neighbors. The situation with India and its neighbors can't be compared to the Chinese civil war, as those neighbor's aren't de jure part of India and has never been. Yes in WW2 the Liberation Army marched on de facto independent South and Tibet, just like in 1861 US army marched on de facto independent Confederacy.

China has not incorporated any new territory beside minor ones from Vietnam in more than 100 years, in fact it released territory in the form of Mongolia to settle things with Russia.

Ultimately there is no way for China to respect an India that wants to be an Empire because that's just not compatible, India will have to change it's mind or accept the resistance.

looks like Chinese app ban has fueled Indian domestic app market growth.
China should reflect back on its own history to see what outsourcing can cause damage to your own local industries. Chinese smartphone companies are setting up factories , research centers in India and now India can produce enough smartphone for its domestic consumption. May be in few years Indian companies will come up with their own smartphone and will destroy Chinese smartphone industry.

MrCrazyBoyRavi said:

looks like Chinese app ban has fueled Indian domestic app market growth.

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China should reflect back on its own history to see what outsourcing can cause damage to your own local industries. Chinese smartphone companies are setting up factories , research centers in India and now India can produce enough smartphone for its domestic consumption. May be in few years Indian companies will come up with their own smartphone and will destroy Chinese smartphone industry.

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Unless you say India now has innovative capacity & user base bigger than Facebook(which was thinking to challenge dollar) i would dismiss this as naive sentiment for brief period.
As for outsourcing, What China did 20-30years ago was a once in a thousand year opportunity, China grabbed it with both hands.
It is never coming back , specially in era of AI & robotics.
So far only outsorcing i have seen to India is some IT, there people can't tell you the difference between IT & IoT. Oh ya, there are some Apple assembly line too,of cheaper versions.

You guys are toO invested in this. The Chinese Official media barely even reporting on this suggest the level of attention the Chinese government are putting into this. At least outwardly. I think China is prepared but it also mean they don't think it's going to be a big deal.

A couple of general notes on some ironic facts of history:

1) In geopolitical alignments, "Democracy" has nothing to do with anything. If the US cared about 'democracy' it wouldn't have been supporting tyrants around the world since the beginning. Also, "Democracy" is a marketing term for lay audiences. The Anglo-American empire has always been an Oligarchy, technically. (Its founding document is the Magna Carta, which was basically a laundry list of demands to safeguard the wealth, status and property of the elite.)

2) Another fact of geopolitical history is that the US (just like the British before them) have never liked helping the weak. This is a fairly nuanced point (because the counter-examples have to be carefully analyzed) but let's just look at US-India relations over the past year. In 2019, India went crying to America to put sanctions on 'terrorist' Pakistan for shooting down their Mig. The US didn't lift a finger and their media even ridiculed India. This year, they went crying to the US to help them against a 'bully' China. Instead of helping, the US banned Indian work visas, causing further embarrassment. Ironically, as long as India keeps getting its ass kicked, the US will not help it.

MrCrazyBoyRavi said:

looks like Chinese app ban has fueled Indian domestic app market growth.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China should reflect back on its own history to see what outsourcing can cause damage to your own local industries. Chinese smartphone companies are setting up factories , research centers in India and now India can produce enough smartphone for its domestic consumption. May be in few years Indian companies will come up with their own smartphone and will destroy Chinese smartphone industry.

Click to expand...

You are thinking a little too simply about this, social media requires a lot of capital at the initial stages, especially nowadays with all the alternatives, the app company would usually be burning a huge amount of money in order to build up its following before monetisation options are available. It’s more of a question of whether there is enough capital to sustain the company during the period before no/limited return begins to balloon.

For India the Chinese app ban have helped the domestic app market but the monetisation options are still somewhat limited and revenue will take time to build up, whilst at the same time you have put in more and more resources to support the growing user base. In effect the Indian video sharing companies are racing against time to generate the revenue needed, having users is just the first step, otherwise they will have to look for investment or investors to provide the money to burn. With the downturn of the economy in general, revenue generation from social media will be even harder, proving to investors that they can generate the return would become more difficult. So it’s hard to say if this ban is worthwhile or not, considering they have just ban app companies that would have invested massive capital into the Indian economy.

As for outsourcing and India developing their smart phones, it will happen regardless, it only a matter of time but the problem with your argument is whether India can/will provide the infrastructure needed for the supply chain required to produce the smart phones. At the moment it’s only assembly where a lot parts are being made in China and shipped to India. The first hurdle India needs to overcome is the can India make the part cheaper than China can and in the amount needed. A straight up ban will not help you here, as it would be too expensive to setup all the factories needed to supply the smart phone assembly plants and there will be other locations where supply of parts from China will not be a problem.

I am sure in time India will have phone that will challenge the world smart phone market but a few years is too ambitious, the only half decent brand I have heard of from India is POCO and that is Chinese investment from Xaiomi, POCO is also priced higher, for the same spec, than their equivalent. You have to factor in the construction of the parts factory, the infrastructure to supply the factories be it the raw material -> parts factory, parts factory -> assembly lines then from assembly to market. Now that there is shunning of Chinese investments and products, it means the factories might have problems sustaining production from delayed or more expensive parts and further down the line, sales, as the incentives to invest in India is further diminished. So you would be looking at the foreign companies who already have massive production in China to shift that production and pay the costs involved and that is unrealistic, note that even Apple has only shifted a limited capacity of assembly to India dispute all the help from the trade war. Now that the biggest group with the most incentives to invest in India have been disincentivized, it would likely take even longer.

Biscuits said:

@Inst

About what you wrote with Indian politics, the problem is that their thinking is outdated. China can never accomandate them some "sphere of influence" because this isn't 1940 and India isn't imperial Japan, and if they want to take on that role, they will face the same end.

China subscribes to the thinking that says countries regardless of size operate on equal terms, this was the condition that was won with the fall of imperialism and fascism. This is also why China has recently been opposed to the USA.

There isn't any way China can "trade away" sovereign countries like Pakistan just because India thinks they're entitled to them, and they've already taken over a few small neighbors. The situation with India and its neighbors can't be compared to the Chinese civil war, as those neighbor's aren't de jure part of India and has never been. Yes in WW2 the Liberation Army marched on de facto independent South and Tibet, just like in 1861 US army marched on de facto independent Confederacy.

China has not incorporated any new territory beside minor ones from Vietnam in more than 100 years, in fact it released territory in the form of Mongolia to settle things with Russia.

Ultimately there is no way for China to respect an India that wants to be an Empire because that's just not compatible, India will have to change it's mind or accept the resistance.

Click to expand...

You said it very well.

China will never accept India's so-called sphere of influence in South Asia. The problems that India has with its neighbors - pretty much all its neighbors - are its own making. China's relationship with South Asia countries is normal relationship between normal countries. There isn't a design of encirclement around India. India is being paranoid, jealous and insecure.

India's mentality, at least that of its ruling elite, is that they expect to be treated as a "sooperpower", for the simple reason of ... just being India.

There are many ways to discuss their thinking and behaviors, as many in this thread have done, but the best way to describe Indian elites' mental state is just one word: delusional.

If China's gov't cracks down on economic freedom then India can take over China.

We shall see if the Chinese administration is that retarded.

MrCrazyBoyRavi said:

Chinese smartphone companies are setting up factories , research centers in India and now India can produce enough smartphone for its domestic consumption.

Click to expand...

This is Chinese aspiration. They help India to a successful future.

MrCrazyBoyRavi said:

May be in few years Indian companies will come up with their own smartphone and will destroy Chinese smartphone industry.

Click to expand...

This is Indian aspiration. They wish Chinese destruction.
Now you see the differences?