If China was cruel and truly wanted to capture this 20%, they could easily do what they did on Pangong Tso but it would seriously risk war... something I consider to be outside of China's wishes and intention.
Ask why China successfully captured and controlled disputed land while India could not do a thing about it. Then ask yourself if China truly wanted to capture it, why not just do so? They clearly can achieve it easily. China wants to take it without a war but it would most likely incite a war with India and India would be well within its rights to wage one (since the land is disputed and here it doesn't matter who has a "better" claim). So the situation for China is either it moves in like on Pangong but for the entire remaining 20% and push India to either accept the full dispute is China or to go kinetic. That's clearly something China doesn't want to do because there are many reasons for it to avoid wasting time, material, and energy fighting India. Even if it won the war, it would only win a stretch of barren land bringing it only 20km closer to New Delhi. It makes no difference to China but risks much.
For India, it makes little difference as well but risks only lives. It isn't in danger of invasion (China won't invade into India proper) or any external threat apart from Pakistan. India wants to gain control without a war either which explains their reluctance to shoot during the initial Pangong occupation. Indian military leaders know full well how quickly and violently they'd lose a shooting fight. If the difference in ammunition were revealed, it would be bigger than the difference between India's 13.5kg payload orbiter to Mars and China's 5000kg payload i.e. higher gap than what most would expect. That wouldn't even account for technology but alas China's forces are far away from from this region and that explains China's reluctance to push the situation beyond control and its reluctance to exacerbate the issue with a push on India to convert the 20% into a buffer.
Now China is waiting India. The initiative is on India. If India agrees to disengage and leave 20%, buffer gets made throughout. If India escalates, then it's war. If India stays put, it is clearly waiting for opportunity. This is why China's still been reinforcing this border with more equipment and troops but the numbers in this region are no match for what India could quickly put into play. Technology would create some resemblance of parity but it would be a grand distraction for China to pay material and human costs in a war with India. The causes for the stalemate are therefore very obvious.
China has been shown in the past, during escalation, and indeed after it (explained already) to want to avoid this situation flaring up. It has nothing to gain. It will only attract the wrong type of attention and negative press. Again it has NOTHING to truly gain. However, it cannot simply give this 20% to India just because India increased patrols in the past and informally creating a scenario where they become de facto owners of the land. Yes China would like the 20% as much as India but unlike India, China is very much happy to make this 20% an enforced no man's land - buffer.
Why is it so hard to understand why India is refusing to agree to China's terms on buffer because it means India loses access to the 80% which it still claims? That's the one and only true reason. And again so here's this stalemate. India refuses to get off the 20% because that means not only losing 20% but certainly the 80% behind this. China won't de-escalate and move back from certain parts if India doesn't vacate 20%. India waiting for opportunity, China waiting to react to however India moves.
Ask why China successfully captured and controlled disputed land while India could not do a thing about it. Then ask yourself if China truly wanted to capture it, why not just do so? They clearly can achieve it easily. China wants to take it without a war but it would most likely incite a war with India and India would be well within its rights to wage one (since the land is disputed and here it doesn't matter who has a "better" claim). So the situation for China is either it moves in like on Pangong but for the entire remaining 20% and push India to either accept the full dispute is China or to go kinetic. That's clearly something China doesn't want to do because there are many reasons for it to avoid wasting time, material, and energy fighting India. Even if it won the war, it would only win a stretch of barren land bringing it only 20km closer to New Delhi. It makes no difference to China but risks much.
For India, it makes little difference as well but risks only lives. It isn't in danger of invasion (China won't invade into India proper) or any external threat apart from Pakistan. India wants to gain control without a war either which explains their reluctance to shoot during the initial Pangong occupation. Indian military leaders know full well how quickly and violently they'd lose a shooting fight. If the difference in ammunition were revealed, it would be bigger than the difference between India's 13.5kg payload orbiter to Mars and China's 5000kg payload i.e. higher gap than what most would expect. That wouldn't even account for technology but alas China's forces are far away from from this region and that explains China's reluctance to push the situation beyond control and its reluctance to exacerbate the issue with a push on India to convert the 20% into a buffer.
Now China is waiting India. The initiative is on India. If India agrees to disengage and leave 20%, buffer gets made throughout. If India escalates, then it's war. If India stays put, it is clearly waiting for opportunity. This is why China's still been reinforcing this border with more equipment and troops but the numbers in this region are no match for what India could quickly put into play. Technology would create some resemblance of parity but it would be a grand distraction for China to pay material and human costs in a war with India. The causes for the stalemate are therefore very obvious.
China has been shown in the past, during escalation, and indeed after it (explained already) to want to avoid this situation flaring up. It has nothing to gain. It will only attract the wrong type of attention and negative press. Again it has NOTHING to truly gain. However, it cannot simply give this 20% to India just because India increased patrols in the past and informally creating a scenario where they become de facto owners of the land. Yes China would like the 20% as much as India but unlike India, China is very much happy to make this 20% an enforced no man's land - buffer.
Why is it so hard to understand why India is refusing to agree to China's terms on buffer because it means India loses access to the 80% which it still claims? That's the one and only true reason. And again so here's this stalemate. India refuses to get off the 20% because that means not only losing 20% but certainly the 80% behind this. China won't de-escalate and move back from certain parts if India doesn't vacate 20%. India waiting for opportunity, China waiting to react to however India moves.
India did nothing because it could do nothing. So clearly China didn't intend for the outcome to be winning 20% this way.
