why it stayed there for 3 days? for what purpose?
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Japanese ships disrupted Chinese naval exercises
- Thread starter kroko
- Start date
why it stayed there for 3 days? for what purpose?
Re: Japanese ships dusrupted chinese naval exercicies
Funny you mentioned that. Please define close enough. Japan has a huge "air defense identification zone" that is very very close to China
Japan scramble jets whenever another military plane enters the zone. How on earth one can say China is being aggressive when they send her jets just outside of her doorsteps?
Edit:
Another map from the same :
Dotted lines are the disputed EEZ and the solid red line is the air defense identification zone
Funny you mentioned that. Please define close enough. Japan has a huge "air defense identification zone" that is very very close to China
Japan scramble jets whenever another military plane enters the zone. How on earth one can say China is being aggressive when they send her jets just outside of her doorsteps?
Edit:
Another map from the same :
Dotted lines are the disputed EEZ and the solid red line is the air defense identification zone
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Well, IMHO, this so-called technical point also demonstrates that all the points made by the author are also based on political spin, and to support their assertions that the Japanese are trying to provoke a war. Hogwash.
100 ships, really?
Let's just analyze that statement.
The PLAN would send commissioned ships, and blue-water ships to such an exercise out in the Pacific. Ones that had the ocean-oing handling, and endurance for such an exercise. So, Type 056s, Type 022s, and other such vessels would be excluded. As would the older Type 053 frigates. We will also exclude their 3 SSBNs because they are strategic assets.
In the entire PLAN, here are the ocean-going, blue water vessels available for such an exercise at the moment:
1 x CV-16, Liaoning
3 x Type 071 LPDs
4 x Type 052C DDGs
2 x Type 052B DDGs
2 x Type 052 DDGs
2 x Type 051C DDGs
1 x Type 052B DDG
7 x Type 051 DDGs
4 x Sov DDGs
18 Type 054A FFGs
2 Type 054 FFGs
3 x Type 091 SSNs
3 x Type 093 SSNs
6 x Sea Going AOR vessels
So, how many ships is that? The answer is that it is 58 total ocean-going, blue water vessels available to the PLAN. 58 total, and that would be if EVERY ONE OF THE PLANs major surface combatants were available at one time.
They aren't.
Probably at least 20% of the vesssels at any one time are going to be in refit and maintenance (and that is a very conservative figure), so, take out 12 more vessels, leaving 46 vessels available.
Do you really think the PLAN would send EVERY ONE OF ITS AVAILABLE SHIPS to such an exercise?
No, they would not.
They would not leave their entire coast and the China Sea uncovered for any exercise, not even for any single wartime mission...and this is not wartime at all.
My guess is that the maxuimum number of ships they would send would be less than half.
So now we are down to something less than 23 ships for a major exercise...and that would be a very major exercise to send half their vessels to. The reaility is that it was probably less than 20 ships.
So, absoultely no way were 100 ships involved. As demonstrated, that is a rediculous claim.
So, that illustrates that this entire post is probably nothing but political spin in order to try and make the author's point that Japan is trying to provoke a war.
Fact is, one Murasame DDG, if it tailed the PLAN group there, which it easily could have done and most proabbaly did do, and if assisted by a PLAN P-3 aircraft (which according to the PLAN's own complaint there was), was perfectly capable of observing, gathering intel, and being in a position to surveil the entire exercise. And that is exactly what it was doing.
Did it push the envelope some? I have no doubt it did, to try and illicit even more electronic/sensor intel from the involved PLAN vessels. Particularly with that P-3 available.
Someone asked several times what business the JMSDF vessel had being there for three whole days?
My answer is, why wouldn't it?
It was there, in interational waters, to observe and gather intel on the exercises. So it stayed as long as it felt necessary to do so. There is no law against it doing what I just said, and it could do so easily without creating any true hazard, and without even harassing the Chinese ships.
Did it do something hazardous? Did it harass the PLAN vessels?
We simply do not know. We do know the Chinese complained. If they have any evidence of such a hazard or harassment...they will produce it.
If they do not, my bet is that the JMSDF simply ignored the extents for the exercise that the PLAN announced, and that this understandably upset the PLAN. The JMSDF vessel probably got in close enough to gather its readings...and probably to try and illicit some more, without hazarding anyone.
We will just have to wait and see.
In the mean time, let's try and avoid sensaltionalism on either side. For one thing, it is knee jerk and does not take into account simple rational facts like I just explained. For another it makes our forum, which we are trying to maintain as a professional forum, and a well thought-out forum, look reactionary and bad.
I do not for a minute believe that the Japanese governemnt sent a single Murasame destroyer into an exercise involving up to 20 PLAN major combat vessels and ordered it to try and get the PLAN to fire on it. That would be an abject suicide mission, and it ould be irrational and crazy. The Japanese, whatever else they are, have a professional naval service that is not irrational or crazy...and Abe himself, though perhaps far more conservative than some folks like, is not either.
The two nation's are not at war, and Japan, despite some of the crazy things that are being said here, does not want a war with China. It is in no position economically to either wage one for any long term, or econimically to even handle a very shot one IMHO.
Is it playing some brinkmanship games? Probably. Both sides are.
The US will support its ally if it is attacked without cause or justification, or if its rights are violated abjectly. But it will not support insane or crazy actions by an ally that provokes a war or conflict. And Japan knows this.
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joshuatree
Captain
I really don't know about Abe being rational. He's made quite a few provocative moves that any US politician would have seen the end of their careers already. Imagine if Merkel posed with a Swastika in the background. Abe purposefully posed behind a plane with "731" on it. He's not that ignorant of that action. While in no position economically to wage a war, it's also the economy, Fukushima, and an ailing demographic resistant to immigration that are critical enough for a govt wanting a means of distraction. Yes, the same can be said for the Chinese side.
Unfortunately, the US spelled out it will aid Japan over these islands which was a mistake in my opinion. Should have left it vague because this pivot has done nothing but stoked the fires. It's no coincidence that every actor opposing China in the past year has all gotten more aggressive. With Japan starting the downward slide last year with the so called nationalization, it's reasonable that all Japan needs is the Chinese side to fire the first shot, then it's all about "defense" which the US has said it will assist with. Some posters are more emotionally charged but that premise isn't far-fetched. It's already a tit-for-tat engagement now so time will tell if cooler heads prevail or the downward spiral begins.
None of that negates the rediculous claim that the PLAN had a 100 ship exercise, and that a single Murasame DDG was sent there to get them to fire on it.
Both assertions are rediculous on their face, and the first is easily shown (as I did in my last post) as simply false. It was made to try and promote the second assertion which has not in the least been proven or shown.
I say again, if there is evidence of the JMSDF recklessly hazarding PLAN vessels, or abjectly harassing them...then the PLAN needs to show it. Otherwise, it is all speculation, and far too much of that speculation, IMHO, is knee-jerk, wild-eyed speculation about war.
The absolute most probable condition was that the JMSDF vessel went there to gather intelligence and, in international waters, ignored the outer limits established by the PLAN to do so. Occam's rasor.
Thank you for the explanation, Jeff. I am just really curious for why Japanese did this. If their ship was not within close range with Chinese Navy, did they try to test out if Chinese ship can not detect their ship was there observing? try to sneak in between Chinese formation? Did Japanese underestimate Chinese capabilities?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
It amuses me that people think 'professionalism' would prevent the IJN from doing what was claimed. Professionalism has nothing to do with it since the decision to actively interfere with a PLAN exercise was a political one and the act was a deliberate one. No one was suggesting the IJN ship got lost on its way home and couldn't figure out how to leave the PLAN declared exercise zone for 3 days.
Someone made a crack about me using that name, but so long as Japanese ships still fly the same flag as the IJN and still act like a belligerent thug like the IJN, than I think the name is perfectly apt.
The fact of the matter is that there are very few clear rules about behaviour at sea. There is no real parallels with what happens in a park or on the highway because while there are detailed and extensive rules governing what one can and should do in a public park or on the roads, there are few such rules in international waters.
The only real solid rules relates to navigation and are civilian rules that are hopelessly ill suited for military navies that have an antagonistic relationship. That was demonstrated abundantly clear during the Cold War with lives lost and which almost started wars.
There are no solid rules, but there are conventions and plain decent common sense that civilised navies adhere to, and Japan clearly broke a whole heap of them with the stunt they pulled.
Given the constant harassment the IJN subject the PLAN to every time they get a chance and China has never complained before, so that gives you an idea of how far the Japanese went this time to trigger such a strong official statement from Beijing.
It really boggles the mind how some people could honestly think that China has anything to do with the heightening of tensions. Given the public whinefest Tokyo makes every time the PLAN or PLAAF does even routine and innocuous things like transiting in international airspace or flying drones in international airspace, you would think we would have heard a peep if the PLAN actually did anything remotely provocative to the IJN.
So far, the provocation and harassement has been entirely one way, and the only reason the IJN has upped the anti so much this time is precisely because of that inconvenient truth. It is abundantly clear that Tokyo would love nothing more than for China to get into a petty tit for tat escalation cycle with them like the Soviets. Because as much as they like to pretend that there is some grand Pan Asian coalition united against a 'more assertive' China, its all smokes and mirrors, and the facts on the ground just don't support that at all.
All this Chinese aggression BS is 60% media spin and 40% China responding to the blatant provocations of others who broke the unspoken understanding that kept the peace in the decades before. The western Media might not be able to get enough of that crap, but there is only so much media spin can do, and try as they might, very few objective people without strong preconceptions would consider unarmed Chinese civilian law enforcement ships and planes as particularly threatening nor do they see Chinese ships sailing in international waters or planes/drones flying in international airspace as particularly aggressive.
Japan is painfully aware that time is not on their side, so they are trying harder and harder to get a rise out of China so they can use that as 'proof' to get support for Obama's Asian pivot both in Asian and in the US as they are getting more desperate.
Problem is that the harder they push, the more obvious it is what they are doing. Outside of the hardcore Japanese suporters and apologists, there can be little sympathy with what this Japanese warship did even if they technically didn't break any laws or rules. Everyone who isn't biased can see who was the one out looking for trouble. All China has to do is keep its cool and not take the bait and Japan's escalating efforts to try and get a reaction from China will do more damage to their image and to expose what they are trying to do than any spanky media counter blitz China could put out.
That is one of the main strengths of China's system, its leaders are not so enslaved to public opinion that they can be easily manipulated into compromising the nation's best interests to chase down some votes.
That is the main reason there has been relatively little follow up from China in past cases after they have public ally complained about provocations and slights - Beijing knows what tricks the other side is trying to pull, and they are deliberately not playing along. They raise the issue to shine a spotlight for the world to see a clear pattern of behaviour, but they don't want to follow-up and keep the story alive over a long period as that will inevitably cause the issue to snowball and escalate , and that will play right into the hands of those who made the provocations in the first place. Because it will whip up public anger inside China and not even China's leaders can afford to disregard what its people are feeling and demanding if they feel strongly enough about it.
Someone made a crack about me using that name, but so long as Japanese ships still fly the same flag as the IJN and still act like a belligerent thug like the IJN, than I think the name is perfectly apt.
The fact of the matter is that there are very few clear rules about behaviour at sea. There is no real parallels with what happens in a park or on the highway because while there are detailed and extensive rules governing what one can and should do in a public park or on the roads, there are few such rules in international waters.
The only real solid rules relates to navigation and are civilian rules that are hopelessly ill suited for military navies that have an antagonistic relationship. That was demonstrated abundantly clear during the Cold War with lives lost and which almost started wars.
There are no solid rules, but there are conventions and plain decent common sense that civilised navies adhere to, and Japan clearly broke a whole heap of them with the stunt they pulled.
Given the constant harassment the IJN subject the PLAN to every time they get a chance and China has never complained before, so that gives you an idea of how far the Japanese went this time to trigger such a strong official statement from Beijing.
It really boggles the mind how some people could honestly think that China has anything to do with the heightening of tensions. Given the public whinefest Tokyo makes every time the PLAN or PLAAF does even routine and innocuous things like transiting in international airspace or flying drones in international airspace, you would think we would have heard a peep if the PLAN actually did anything remotely provocative to the IJN.
So far, the provocation and harassement has been entirely one way, and the only reason the IJN has upped the anti so much this time is precisely because of that inconvenient truth. It is abundantly clear that Tokyo would love nothing more than for China to get into a petty tit for tat escalation cycle with them like the Soviets. Because as much as they like to pretend that there is some grand Pan Asian coalition united against a 'more assertive' China, its all smokes and mirrors, and the facts on the ground just don't support that at all.
All this Chinese aggression BS is 60% media spin and 40% China responding to the blatant provocations of others who broke the unspoken understanding that kept the peace in the decades before. The western Media might not be able to get enough of that crap, but there is only so much media spin can do, and try as they might, very few objective people without strong preconceptions would consider unarmed Chinese civilian law enforcement ships and planes as particularly threatening nor do they see Chinese ships sailing in international waters or planes/drones flying in international airspace as particularly aggressive.
Japan is painfully aware that time is not on their side, so they are trying harder and harder to get a rise out of China so they can use that as 'proof' to get support for Obama's Asian pivot both in Asian and in the US as they are getting more desperate.
Problem is that the harder they push, the more obvious it is what they are doing. Outside of the hardcore Japanese suporters and apologists, there can be little sympathy with what this Japanese warship did even if they technically didn't break any laws or rules. Everyone who isn't biased can see who was the one out looking for trouble. All China has to do is keep its cool and not take the bait and Japan's escalating efforts to try and get a reaction from China will do more damage to their image and to expose what they are trying to do than any spanky media counter blitz China could put out.
That is one of the main strengths of China's system, its leaders are not so enslaved to public opinion that they can be easily manipulated into compromising the nation's best interests to chase down some votes.
That is the main reason there has been relatively little follow up from China in past cases after they have public ally complained about provocations and slights - Beijing knows what tricks the other side is trying to pull, and they are deliberately not playing along. They raise the issue to shine a spotlight for the world to see a clear pattern of behaviour, but they don't want to follow-up and keep the story alive over a long period as that will inevitably cause the issue to snowball and escalate , and that will play right into the hands of those who made the provocations in the first place. Because it will whip up public anger inside China and not even China's leaders can afford to disregard what its people are feeling and demanding if they feel strongly enough about it.
Blackstone
Brigadier
That's a very powerful fleet! Throw in the Liaoning (with at least half of her full complements), Kunlunshan, Jinggangshan, and a couple of 093 attack SSNs and you have a CBG that's second only to USN CBGs.
They did it precisely to gather intelligence on the Chinese ship's capabilities. She was not trying to avoid being seen by the Chinese.
She followed them to the exercise area, observed with her own sensors what they were doing with their sensors (radars, communications, data links, etc.) and then probably got as close as she could without hazarding their vessels or harrassing them, to gather more info in the hopes that coming closer would get them to turn on even more equipment that she could record.
Probably while she was doing this, a Japanese P-3 maritime surveillance aircraft flew nearby to do the same.
The Chinese had probably established an exercise zone around their ships and published it, asking other ships not to enter that area. Since it is international waters, the Japanese ship probably ignored that and got as close as the captain of that vessel felt was safe to conduct his mission, which was to gather information about the Chinese vessels. Since this was within the zone the Chinese had published, the PLAN did not like it and complained that the JMSDF was interfering.
That is the most likely scenario of what happened.
If the Chinese can show that the Japanese captain actually hazarded or harassed their vessels, they should publish that proof and then Japan should be reprimanded.
But until they do, the other is most likely what happened.
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