Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Radar

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Actually I think we are missing a very important point. No matter China did it or not, Japan is smart to not, will not and should not confront China with any "evidence". Such a move will be inevitably lead to a real clash with no constructive gains, and neither of the 3 sides will gain anything and will instead cause the unwanted to happen.
This proves that they all still want to avoid conflicts, but also mean the next time it occurs, it won't be so face-saving.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

airsuperiority said:

Actually I think we are missing a very important point. No matter China did it or not, Japan is smart to not, will not and should not confront China with any "evidence". Such a move will be inevitably lead to a real clash with no constructive gains, and neither of the 3 sides will gain anything and will instead cause the unwanted to happen.
This proves that they all still want to avoid conflicts, but also mean the next time it occurs, it won't be so face-saving.

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Which is why I think this whole affair is a media-op to build up support for Japan in the event of a real military conflict.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

solarz said:

Which is why I think this whole affair is a media-op to build up support for Japan in the event of a real military conflict.

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Not in the event of a real military conflict, but paving the way for one. Remember how both 9.18.31 and 7.7.37 got started

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Mr T said:

Not at all, but you can't assess how reliable something is if you don't know what that thing is. By asking what would stop Japan from falsifying evidence you were pre-judging it.

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At a minimum Japan has historically been known to fabricate incidents in the pursuit of aggressive policy aims, such as the Mukden incident and Marco Polo bridge incident as Luhai pointed out, so it is hardly beyond them to do so even in the present.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

montyp165 said:

At a minimum Japan has historically been known to fabricate incidents in the pursuit of aggressive policy aims, such as the Mukden incident and Marco Polo bridge incident as Luhai pointed out, so it is hardly beyond them to do so even in the present.

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I don't think we should accuse that about Japan right now. Japan is supposed to be no longer IJ, do we should still permit the benefit of a doubt. We have a right to accuse them of remilitarization again if its so to be revealed as such

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Hell Japan at all levels is untruthful with the public like everyone else said Mukden Incedent, everything about WW2 and the Fukashima nuclear plant.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

montyp165 said:

At a minimum Japan has historically been known to fabricate incidents in the pursuit of aggressive policy aims, such as the Mukden incident and Marco Polo bridge incident as Luhai pointed out, so it is hardly beyond them to do so even in the present.

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I guess the next few month will prove the current Chinese government's worth against both the Qing Government in 1894 and the Nationalist government both in 1931 and 1937. Use of overwhelming force for only modest demands seems to be a usual Japanese practice, and it's easy to give in when weighing the cost of both peace and war. At first, I can't forgive CKS for not resisting in 1931, but now I can understand.

After all the CKS bashing for not resisting in 1931, it's time for PRC to show their true colors. 2013 might very well be the 1931 moment for the PRC. China can either back down, acknowledge Japanese control and ownership of Diaoyutai and probably invite futher aggression in the East China Sea and South China sea. Or ride it though, with enough ante on the table so that the cost of war will be apparent to both Japan and its backers. (Clausewitz unfortunately is correct here. Whether or not to go to war is political decision, if the benefit exceed loss. Why not? This is the folly of 1914, easy wars blind people. And the world had plenty of easy wars in the last three decades.)

Say what you will about Qing's weakness, it can easier avoid war in June of 1894 by not executing their right in Convention of Tientsin and loss Korea as a buffer state and perhaps a few more island around Taiwan. (Even in July of 1894, war can still by avoid by eating the loss of the two transport ship. And letting things slide the Chinese way. 大事化小， 小事化了） However, Qing choose full scale declared war.

The nationalist government in 1931 essentially abandoned the newly united NE government, and ZXL lacking the backup from central government essentially ordered a full retreat. Afterwards, Japan made a series of incidents, and the nationalist government basically just ate it up, giving only diplomatic protest.

In 1937, Japan's object is actually quite modest. () It's just a extension previous incidents, which the national government had known to capitulate. However, 7.7.37 proved to be the last straw and Nationalist offered full resistance (though not an actual declaration of war, that only came in 1941 when the US join the war effort.). After the battle of Shanghai, when the core of the NRA had been destroyed. Japan actually offered "peace" (since no war was actually declare, it's more a settlement offer. Similar to conclusion of previous incidents.) with fairly modest terms considering the alternative. However, CKS refused and Japan marched to Nanjing and rest become history.

In 7.7.37, Japan pushed through because they though all major action will be over with in three month, and they will gain de facto political control in Northern China and substantial economic control in Eastern China. Had they know the end result (I'm not even talking about Pacific War here, just effective grinding stalemate after Battle of Changsha), they will be satisfied with Truce of Tangu. No once is that stupid. Stupidity often is just rational decision with wishful opportunism.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

airsuperiority said:

Japan is supposed to be no longer IJ, do we should still permit the benefit of a doubt.

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Given how Japan treat this piece of history, it's very hard to tell the difference.

[video=youtube;rwNiZjj48JA]https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=rwNiZjj48JA[/video]

If you watch this video, it seem the only lesson Japan draw from the invasion of China is that they should not be trick by China into being isolated by the international community. Given the recent action, they have learned this lesson well.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

luhai said:

I guess the next few month will prove the current Chinese government's worth against both the Qing Government in 1894 and the Nationalist government both in 1931 and 1937. Use of overwhelming force for only modest demands seems to be a usual Japanese practice, and it's easy to give in when weighing the cost of both peace and war. At first, I can't forgive CKS for not resisting in 1931, but now I can understand. After all the CKS bashing for not resisting in 1931, it's time for PRC to show their true colors. 2013 might very well be the 1931 moment for the PRC.

Say what you will about Qing's weakness, it can easier avoid war in June of 1894 by not executing their right in Convention of Tientsin and loss Korea as a buffer state and perhaps a few more island around Taiwan. (Even in July of 1894, war can still by avoid by eating the loss of the two transport ship. And letting things slide the Chinese way. 大事化小， 小事化了） However, Qing choose full scale declared war.

The nationalist government in 1931 essentially abandoned the newly united NE government, and ZXL lacking the backup from central government essentially ordered a full retreat. Afterwards, Japan made a series of incidents, and the nationalist government basically just ate it up, giving only diplomatic protest.

In 1937, Japan's object is actually quite modest. (

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) It's just a extension previous incidents, which the national government had known to capitulate. However, 7.7.37 proved to be the last straw and Nationalist offered full resistance (though not an actual declaration of war, that only came in 1941 when the US join the war effort.). After the battle of Shanghai, when the core of the NRA had been destroyed. Japan actually offered "peace" (since no war was actually declare, it's more a settlement offer. Similar to conclusion of previous incidents.) with fairly modest terms considering the alternative. However, CKS refused and Japan marched to Nanjing and rest become history.

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It is exactly because of Qing weakness in 1894 and Nationalist weakness in 1931 why the respective leaderships chose the 'easy' way out. 'Easy' only for the leadership in that they can trade away some territory to preserve actual control over the territory that's left. That is an inept leadership's choice obvious to all, essentially abdication under threat instead of confronting the threat, and in the long-term a guaranteed losing proposition as the Nationalists found out in 1937.

Japan's 1937 objective might be 'modest' compared to world conquest but is absolutely immodest and unacceptable to any supporter of a unified and independent China. Which is why the Xian incident happened and Chiang Kai Shek was forced (by his own people who were better at strategic prioritizing than him) to refocus Nationalist efforts on fighting Japan rather than the Communists.

The situation today is completely different from the situation then, and contesting maritime territory with basically no inhabitants is inherently different from contesting territory on land. I would expect a continued PR war and more games of chicken until either an actual military accident happens, an incident is orchestrated, or all parties agree on a new deal.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Frankly the best solution is to declare a 200nm radius nature reserve, with joint patrols to keep out all fishing vessels and no patrol ship can enter the 12nm zone. A modern day Convention of Tientsin if you will, with all of its flaws. But it avoids immediate problems and provide a needed sanctuary / Spawning area in the heavy fished waters of East Asia. However, whomever propose this will lose a lot of political capital at home, and the oppose party may not even accept this. So no one will propose.