Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Radar

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Something I must say is, we all have our biases, so it's important we try not to fill in the blanks with too much of our own fantasies, because we're just letting our bias dictate further and skew the rest of our capabilities to receive new information.

I think the best explanation would reveal itself in the next week months' time of how both states settle their differences. It's hard to determine who's right at this moment, as we are technically nothing more than opinion expressers like the public on an incident we have no inside information to. How likely is it foul play or some misunderstanding is still for us to observe.



Is it Cuban Missile Crisis or Tonkin is still uncertain, but most importantly is that Japan "considers the release of evidence", so what comes out would be the next step in this crisis. Bogus/hoax or authentic, someone is bound to lose the grounds of credibility.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

airsuperiority said:

Something I must say is, we all have our biases, so it's important we try not to fill in the blanks with too much of our own fantasies, because we're just letting our bias dictate further and skew the rest of our capabilities to receive new information.

I think the best explanation would reveal itself in the next week months' time of how both states settle their differences. It's hard to determine who's right at this moment, as we are technically nothing more than opinion expressers like the public on an incident we have no inside information to. How likely is it foul play or some misunderstanding is still for us to observe.

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Is it Cuban Missile Crisis or Tonkin is still uncertain, but most importantly is that Japan "considers the release of evidence", so what comes out would be the next step in this crisis. Bogus/hoax or authentic, someone is bound to lose the grounds of credibility.

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One question is, how reliable would any such evidence be? What prevents Japan from fabricating false evidence?

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

solarz said:

One question is, how reliable would any such evidence be? What prevents Japan from fabricating false evidence?

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Well what makes it unique, if anything?

Also looks like they are backing away from releasing the data due to fears of compromising intelligence.

Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera has back-pedaled on his earlier statements and is now saying Japan has to be extremely cautious in deciding whether or not to release evidence that a Chinese warship had locked on a Japanese destroyer in the East China Sea last January 30.

Onodera said that the government has hard evidence on the radar lock but that revealing it might compromise Japanese intelligence and the capabilities of the Ministry of Defense. He also said that China will not admit to the incident, as evidenced by a statement from their Foreign Ministry saying they have no knowledge of the use of weapons-targeting radar by their patrol ships.

It was just a day ago when Onodera said that they were considering releasing the data but now he says the word “consider” means they will look at the development of bilateral ties between the two countries before revealing any of the information they hold. He believes that the government should prioritize resuming the dialogue with China to prevent further incidents like this. “Creation of a mechanism to prevent clashes in the sea, which we’ve discussed for some time, is the most constructive and important issue,” Onodera said.

The government itself is divided on this issue, with some saying this is a chance for Japan to assert and justify its claim on the disputed Senkaku Islands while an unnamed official says that the disclosure would lead to a ‘he said, she said’ battle.

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Guess they were satisfied showing it to the US and felt the media 'gain' from showing it to the world (if it actually exists) would not justify the insight any potential enemies would gain into their intelligence gathering capabilities.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

icbeodragon said:

Guess they were satisfied showing it to the US and felt the media 'gain' from showing it to the world (if it actually exists) would not justify the insight any potential enemies would gain into their intelligence gathering capabilities.

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Smells like a False Flag event.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

icbeodragon said:

Well what makes it unique, if anything?

Also looks like they are backing away from releasing the data due to fears of compromising intelligence.


Guess they were satisfied showing it to the US and felt the media 'gain' from showing it to the world (if it actually exists) would not justify the insight any potential enemies would gain into their intelligence gathering capabilities.

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I'm willing to contemplate the CN ship using FCR but as I've stated before, I would weigh that in conjunction with time, location, distance between vessels, and nature of operations for CN and MSDF. Without those, everything can be taken out of context. And since it appears Japan is now backpeddling on providing evidence (even if they did, I doubt they will provide all the details I would like to see), officially, the accusations are unfounded.

I would like to avoid as much of the politics as I can but this matter is political in nature. So having said that, any objective person should not take the US believing Japan as satisfactory proof that the incident took place. Of course the US will back up Japan, that's the essence of an alliance, that's built in bias right there. How about showing the evidence to say....Switzerland? New Zealand? That's not how "rule of law" works and it only makes that phrase all the more empty and hollow when Japan falls back on "we showed the US and the US believes it". Current media spin is that China is the bogeyman. It's lied before and had standoffs before therefore we don't need evidence to say the accusation is true. Well...I would make a brief and friendly reminder that even the US makes grave mistakes, WMDs in Iraq or even the current USS Guardian grounding on a well known reef as examples. Furthermore, Japan's own history has shown they are capable and have fabricated incidents - Mukden Incident and Marco Polo Bridge Incident are some.

Lots of analysts speculating perhaps this is a rogue Chinese captain or perhaps lower level officers are not controlled by Beijing. Well I can equally speculate that perhaps low level Japanese officers or the Japanese captain taking matters into their own hands to start something. Afterall, that's exactly what happened with the Mukden Incident. Who's to say the evidence doesn't exist or perhaps these FCR readings aren't something where one Japanese vessel targeted their own to generate the false logs? Yes, I know potentially signatures are unique but what prevents advanced tech countries from spoofing? Happens all the time in the IT world. Or perhaps the Japanese in shadowing the CN ship provoked it? The Japanese are known to be very aggressive in treating fishermen in disputed waters from ramming them to pincer movements to water logging their boats.

You don't hear the Japanese mention any more about the supposed Russians entering Japanese airspace. Could it be the Russians simply won't give them the time of day with these accusations?

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

solarz said:

One question is, how reliable would any such evidence be? What prevents Japan from fabricating false evidence?

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I think you've inadvertently hit the nail on the head. There are some people that will believe Japan to be lying, whatever it does. Is there any point trying to reason with such people?

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Mr T said:

I think you've inadvertently hit the nail on the head. There are some people that will believe Japan to be lying, whatever it does. Is there any point trying to reason with such people?

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I see you don't believe in questioning the reliability of evidence.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

solarz said:

I see you don't believe in questioning the reliability of evidence.

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Not at all, but you can't assess how reliable something is if you don't know what that thing is. By asking what would stop Japan from falsifying evidence you were pre-judging it.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Mr T said:

Not at all, but you can't assess how reliable something is if you don't know what that thing is. By asking what would stop Japan from falsifying evidence you were pre-judging it.

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Read my posts. I was asking about the reliability of the evidence.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

lostsoul said:

Smells like a False Flag event.

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Curiously, what sort of 'False Flag' event are you thinking? What is the goal if it was a false flag rather? Media ops only? If it was a false flag, the Chinese government would certainly know it, what do you think the reaction would be?

solarz said:

Read my posts. I was asking about the reliability of the evidence.

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Maybe there is someone here who has the knowledge and the liberty to speak in depth about how difficult or easy it is to fabricate something of this nature.

Otherwise? We probably won't know either way.