Japan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Gloire_bb said:

It isn't predetermined. At least not yet. Missiles aimed at each other, unless nuclear of course, don't matter that much: they sleep.You aim at me, I aim at you, we can live and even trade like this for decades. The mutual threat itself is a reasonable guarantee.

Right now Japan can be broadly described as follows:

Industrial, maritime country, firmly economically intertwined into the added-value chain of pax Americana, completely dependant on two main groups of SLOCs - eastern (transpacific to US west coast and Panama) and western (SEA, Gulf, Europe).

The whole "western" group is completely reliant on US maritime power, and in case of any breach in the 1st Island chain, but especially in case of Taiwan (which is basically lone large terrestrial piece controlling all the surroundings - behind it we basically get empty western Pacific) this guarantee doesn't cost any paper it is on. Japan simply can't do anything equal to China, it's simple geography.

Japan, in the end, is a functioning society - part of the larger group of US-aligned, sea-linked societies forming the outer rim of the East Asian mainland. Break the rim - and this model just breaks. You can move the SLOCs away from East Asian mainland, but you can move them only this much outwards to still work. And Taiwan controls the western group in any case.

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So bro we agree an Arm race is good for China, Some may say it may bankrupt the Chinese BUT selling weapons to other country with adversarial relationship with US is a great counter move, making the American spend more and over stretch their already depleted resources.

Japan can't compete both militarily and economically, they know it, ABE try to use the China Threat to lessen the leash hold of the US, but he is naive once occupied they never leave, so they were forced to compromised by Hedging and that for me is a Big Win for China.

For the US employing it's vassal had been a curse, the once guarantee obligation is being question and is getting louder each year as China with Russia rise in prominence and had Escalatory Dominance in the Sphere of Influence, you may include Iran in the mix forming a formidable bloc.

Gloire_bb said:

It isn't predetermined. At least not yet. Missiles aimed at each other, unless nuclear of course, don't matter that much: they sleep.You aim at me, I aim at you, we can live and even trade like this for decades. The mutual threat itself is a reasonable guarantee.

Right now Japan can be broadly described as follows:

Industrial, maritime country, firmly economically intertwined into the added-value chain of pax Americana, completely dependant on two main groups of SLOCs - eastern (transpacific to US west coast and Panama) and western (SEA, Gulf, Europe).

The whole "western" group is completely reliant on US maritime power, and in case of any breach in the 1st Island chain, but especially in case of Taiwan (which is basically lone large terrestrial piece controlling all the surroundings - behind it we basically get empty western Pacific) this guarantee doesn't cost any paper it is on. Japan simply can't do anything equal to China, it's simple geography.

Japan, in the end, is a functioning society - part of the larger group of US-aligned, sea-linked societies forming the outer rim of the East Asian mainland. Break the rim - and this model just breaks. You can move the SLOCs away from East Asian mainland, but you can move them only this much outwards to still work. And Taiwan controls the western group in any case.

Click to expand...

Japan's previous security model was to rely on the US to provide both economic and military security.

But now, the combination of Japanese+US militaries can no longer ensure that this. In the near future, China can now credibly attack Japanese airfields and seaports, and keep these shut down, no matter what the US or Japan military does. On other words, all of Japan's SLOCs are shut down.

Japan is a small but very densely populated group of islands with no natural resources which is dependent on food/oil imports and on exports of manufactured goods. If Japan's trade is shut down, a Japanese collapse is inevitable, given some time. In addition, China is already Japan's largest trading partner, and this dependence is likely to increase over the next 10 years.

So even if Japan arms up with offensive middle, Japan can't actually use them because of the consequences.

If you run a few comparative models of what the Chinese military is building, you'll be able to see this as well.

As for Taiwan controlling the Western SLOCs, I think we can agree that the Taiwanese Air Force and Navy will be a non-factor after the 1st week

@Gloire_bb

As an example, we've just seen the US approve the purchase of 3000 JASSMs and 100K GMLRS, amongst other munitions

The Chinese equivalent to the JASSMs would be 3000 DF-17-type missiles, at roughly the same cost
The Chinese equivalent to the GMLRS (from a requirements perspective) could be 100K JDAM/Shaheed-136, which are roughly 4x cheaper

That would be more than enough to disable Japanese airbases for followup strikes. And there would be enough munitions (100K) to keep those bases offline, along with the airfields, seaports, oil facilities and the electricity network in Japan.
Of course, this assumes that Japan would be stupid enough to join the US in a war against China, instead of remaining neural

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This is the target set I get for Taiwan. So multiply these numbers by 6x (to get the equivalent Japan population) for the Japan numbers:

a) 45 major electricity power stations
b) At the next level, 598 electricity substations

c) 3 oil refineries
d) approx 20 fuel distribution terminals
e) a guestimate of 5000 individual Fuel Distribution Tanks in various fuel depots/terminals
f) 2494 petrol stations

g) approx 20,000 mobile telephone masts
h) approx 1500 telephone (Broadband) exchanges

New FFM named Agano launched.

@Gloire_bb

Just a few more thoughts on the naval-air balance with respect to Japan:

China adds a Japan-sized economy roughly every 4 years, if you look at the historical statistics and also do projections into the future.
And the Chinese Navy adds the equivalent of the entire Japanese Navy every 4 years or so

In terms of the Air Force, given that 5th gen stealth fighters have made 4th gen fighters largely obsolete in the air superiority role, let's look at how many stealth fighters there are.

Japan has 27 F-35s and plans on a total of 147.
China currently has about 200 J-20 stealth fighters in service and is adding roughly 70 per year.

If we're being charitable to Japan, it takes China roughly 2 years to add the equivalent of the Japanese fighter fleet.
And if we look to a 2032 timeline, China would have a fleet of 800+ J-20 compared to the 147 F-35s in Japan

All of the Japanese Home Islands are between 800-1200km of mainland China, which is feasible in terms of sustained/regular Chinese fighter jet operations and presence.

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So if we assume a China-Japan-US conflict that starts with little warning in 10 years time, it's probable that the Chinese military can deny Japan use of the sky or waters around Japan. Hence my comment that it would be stupidity (and tantamount to national suicide) to declare war on China. China can achieve its objectives without a war with Japan, and indeed, would prefer Japan to be neutral.

Chinese economic and military preponderance in the Western Pacific is not something new.
It's simply a return back to the natural state of affairs which existed for most of the past 2 millenia
It is the US presence in the Western Pacific which is a historical anomaly

Recent picture of Kaga’s (DDH-144) newly installed bow and flight deck; the whole flight deck has been stripped as of 20DEC22 as work continues.

The JSDF released its concept for the JMSDFs ballistic missile ships; utilizing SPY-7 AEGIS and 64-VLS cells; from the release concept and official release from the government it appears that the two ships will be forgoing any sort of dual purpose 5” guns and possibly any sort of close-in-weapons system, although the image is blurry and the concept may not represent the final product.

The Japanese government gave an estimated completion date of 2028 for both vessels which gives them enough time to modify the concept if needed.

Japan MARV/HGV development

Kaga's conversion for F-35s getting close to done:

Murasame-class guided missile destroyer Inazuma DD-105