broadsword
Brigadier
It's not wise to doubt.
It's not wise to doubt.
Very interesting times ahead.
I can only see them as more cash to US MIC. If they pair this with a liberation of Japanese MIC and participation in Global military market then that'd be something.
What has become of the efforts to export U-2 Shinmaywa? Are Japanese military products competitive on a cost basis?
Skywatcher
Captain
Probably not (Japan can borrow a lot domestically, but sooner or latter, they'll hit a level that ends up with inflation)
Without a hard date for hitting the 2%, it's all bs.
SamuraiBlue
Captain
2% of the GDP is a drop in the bucket people.
CCP with it's fudged GDP boasts around 7% of GDP on national defense, more then triple of that compared to Japan.
CCP with its fudged GDP? 7% on defence ?
Care to cite some sources for it?
No need to get triggered. It's a fact that Japan is swimming in debt. And that makes further spending on defence a headache.
As I said, more dollars for US MIC.
In 2020, China produced just a bit over a billion ton of steel, if say 7% of that went into military, that's 70 million tons of steel worth of military vehicles and warships being produced.
To put that into perspective, at the peak of Soviet military production during 1970s they were producing something like 130 million tons of steel a year and they were spending somewhere between 15-17% of their GDP on military, if we divide up the steel by that ratio that's 22 million tons of steel for military production. With this they are producing something like 2000 tanks and 5000 other armoured vehicles a year.
If your 7% were true we would expect to see more than 20,000 tanks and armour vehicled added to PLAGF in 2020 alone. Does that seem likely?
SamuraiBlue
Captain
Defense budget is not just steel or even acqusition of various new defense equipment. In most nation the lion's share of defense budget is personnel cost, including training, clothing, housing and most important the pay to the military personnel.
It also includes R&D, decommissioning of old equipment, resupply of various perishables including bullets and fuel, so on and so forth.
As for Japan's balance sheet, we have as much credit as debts including credit towards CCP in which Japan loaned tonnes of money to China up until the early 2000's with a maturity period of 30 years.
And which China reciprocates by not shutting its economy to Japanese companies, without which many would bite the dust.
You still didn't cite any sources for your claims of fudged GDP or the 7% of GDP on defence.
SamuraiBlue
Captain
You can find various sources on speculative spending of PLA in which they combine advanced R&D and others which is placed on separate books. They mention higher spending if you must know.
"Various" sources? Then it must be easy to cite.
The only speculative studies I've come across, that introduces reasonable doubts regarding defence - GDP relations in China are those that enquire about internal policing and domestic defence expenditures. But even then, the percentage doesn't budge much.
Maybe you are confusing Defence budget vs Total national budget allocation - which indeed goes to 5-7% of national budget.