Japan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Blitzo · Jul 6, 2016

AndrewS said:
@Bltizo

I stand by my statement.

I expect the first operational J-20 squadron to be deployed to either Beijing or Wuxi. Note that Wuxi covers Shanghai, Japan, Korea and the East China Sea.

Given a modest production rampup, I wouldn't be surprised if 2 squadrons will have been delivered and IOC declared towards the end of next year.

2 squadrons? I suppose you mean regiments, in PLAAF parlance? Assuming a J-20 regiment is the same size as a flanker regiment, that's probably 24 aircraft each, with 48 aircraft total? I cannot imagine they will be able to build 48 aircraft by the end of the year -- frankly I would be impressed if they're able to produce 24 aircraft by the end of the year, let alone achieve IOC.

AndrewS said:
Given that that the Chinese Air Force has now doubled flights to an average of 2 flights per day in the ECS, they should be running unpredictable flight patterns as they have the initiative and can choose where/when/how many planes to put into the air.

Even with the extra F-15 squadron, does this mean Naha airbase/airport is now running on a 24/7 footing where nobody is getting any sleep?

From the Chinese perspective, they could continue escalating and keep this up for decades.

Note that the same calculation applies to the Chinese Coast Guard in the East China Seas.

Yes, the sheer increase in number of capable assets in terms of the Navy, Air Force/Naval Aviation, and Coast Guard, will likely result in an increase in overall operational tempo as they all move to increase their proficiency.

In terms of aircraft, I expect the Navy to induct a fairly large number of Y-8Qs in the coming years, and I expect the western pacific will see them do patrols quite frequently once we reach about 2020.

AndrewS · Jul 6, 2016

FTTE would need 12 aircraft plus another 12-24 would be needed for Wuxi.

That is feasible for the end of the next year.

Brumby · Jul 6, 2016

Bltizo said:
I believe this is the only encounter in recent years that we have this amount of detail -- we do not know how previous encounters have shaped up.

The point is that we shouldn't try to infer too much from only air interception missions -- air interception is far from being equal to "air combat" and generally does not require or reflect upon either side's air combat maneuvring capabilities.

Details of the air encounter by General Oda was reported in an article dated June 28, 2016 by Japan Business Press. The translated version is below :

.. retired LieutenantGeneral
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a former fighter pilot of the Japanese Air Force (JASDF - Japan Air Self-Defense Force), revealed a Chinese jetfighter had dangerously confronted a Japanese jetfighter in Japanese airspace over the
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, in the East China Sea.

[to set the scene of Chinese confrontation General Oda recounted earlier, perhaps related, incursions by Chinese naval vessels into Japanese territorial waters]

Earlier on June 9, 2016 a Chinese PLA-N
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entered the contiguous zone of the Senkaku Islands (see red circle on map below) in the East China Sea (in what is a first-time event by the PLA-N). A week later on June 15, 2016 a PLA-N
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entered territorial waters of
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(?) just south of the Japanese home island of Kyushu. Next day (June 16, 2016) a PLA-N spy ship entered the contiguous zone of the Senkaku Islands.

General Oda explains if armed jetfighters meet within missile range, it could become a hair-trigger situation. The Chinese PLA-AF jetfighters usually keep within a regulated distance from Japanese jetfighters to show peaceful intent. Until the event reported by General Oda PLA-AF fighters had not flown south into Japanese airspace over the East China Sea and had not assumed a hostile stance against a Japanese Air Force fighter [probably scrambled from Okinawa].

But, this time, conditions totally changed. At least one PLA-AF fighter rapidly crossed into Japanese airspace over the Senkaku Islands (see red circle on map below) and showed an attacking behaviour against a Japanese jetfighter. The Japanese fighter avoided the attacking behaviour using a defencive manoeuvre. As the Japanese pilot judged he would be involved in dogfight with unforeseen consequences he withdrew and avoided possible air-to-air missile attack by using self-defence systems.

In writing this account General Oda, a former fighter pilot, well understands how serious the situation was and the need for immediate action. Such aggressive Chinese behavior had not been even experienced during the Cold War (around 1950 to 1992) and was the first-ever dogfight involving the modern Japanese Air Force.

If PLA-AF and Japanese fighters, equipped with missiles and aerial cannon, are involved in dogfights, a collision of fighters or firing of missiles is possible.

Pilots of the Japanese Air Force are strictly controlled and disciplined - so do not fire air-to-air missiles prematurely. But, pilots of the Chinese PLA-AF are relatively inexperienced - making their behaviour unpredictable.

Although PLA-AF jetfighters have repeatedly approached Japanese airspace, they have never conducted jetfighter overflights of the Senkaku Islands (see red circle on map below). But, China now seems to judge that she has the right to do so.

Based on the information, the encounter appears to signal an escalation by China because:
(a)it was the first time the air incursion was into the Senkaku airspace;
(b)the flight behaviour of the Chinese pilot as described appears to be aggressive considering if it was within the Senkaku airspace and technically Japanese airspace.
The subsequent air maneuvering by each side in the encounter would suggest it could have quickly turned ugly. The punching of the flare by the Japanese pilot seems to support the narrative of wanting to leave the scene so as to quickly de-conflict the situation.
However if this is the first of an escalatory path taken by the Chinese then it would be trouble ahead.

Blitzo · Jul 6, 2016

Brumby said:
Details of the air encounter by General Oda was reported in an article dated June 28, 2016 by Japan Business Press. The translated version is below :

Based on the information, the encounter appears to signal an escalation by China because:
(a)it was the first time the air incursion was into the Senkaku airspace;
(b)the flight behaviour of the Chinese pilot as described appears to be aggressive considering if it was within the Senkaku airspace and technically Japanese airspace.
The subsequent air maneuvering by each side in the encounter would suggest it could have quickly turned ugly. The punching of the flare by the Japanese pilot seems to support the narrative of wanting to leave the scene so as to quickly de-conflict the situation.
However if this is the first of an escalatory path taken by the Chinese then it would be trouble ahead.

Did the Su-30s actually enter the airspace of the disputed islands? I haven't found any english language news sources which state it, and the source which you quote appears to be a the gentle seas blog, where the author seems to have made a few statements from his own deduction or inference.

A japanese source, english language article did say:

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According to government sources, generally Chinese aircraft in the East China Sea tended to stay in a certain area north of the Senkakus. However, in multiple cases recently, they have been advancing southward in the direction of the Senkakus, although they have not attempted to approach Japanese airspace near the islands.

On June 17, an ASDF F-15 fighter jet scrambled against a Chinese fighter jet that flew southward in the direction of the Senkakus. According to government sources, the ASDF fighter approached the Chinese jet and issued a warning. However, the Chinese jet refused to immediately retreat, which resulted in both jets flying at each other several times. To avoid danger, the ASDF fighter launched a flare as a decoy against potential incoming missiles before retreating from the area.

.... So I'm not entirely sure if gentle seas is correct in saying that the Su-30s entered the airspace of the islands. (though of course I'm open to additional sources which say otherwise, if they exist)
What does seem to be consistent is that the encounter took part in the more southern part of airspace to the disputed islands rather than the north, which appears to be where the previous encounters had taken place.

That said, the likelihood is good that China will gradually ramp up the frequency of military and coast guard patrols into the "territorial" waters and airspace of the disputed islands as part of the territorial dispute overall.

Brumby · Jul 6, 2016

Bltizo said:
Did the Su-30s actually enter the airspace of the disputed islands? I haven't found any english language news sources which state it, and the source which you quote appears to be a the gentle seas blog, where the author seems to have made a few statements from his own deduction or inference.

A japanese source, english language article did say:

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.... So I'm not entirely sure if gentle seas is correct in saying that the Su-30s entered the airspace of the islands. (though of course I'm open to additional sources which say otherwise, if they exist)

The gentle seas blog basically referenced it to the Japanese Business Press article (in Japanese) which quoted General Oda in giving the location of the encounter. I did a google translate and basically the contents in English are similar. So far both Japanese and Chinese official sources had not disclosed the location and unless they do we will not have confirmation.
If this is a one off incident, then it is history and both sides can move on. If China intends to go down a certain escalation path, then there will be other incidents and the details will eventually surface.

Blitzo · Jul 6, 2016

Brumby said:
The gentle seas blog basically referenced it to the Japanese Business Press article (in Japanese) which quoted General Oda in giving the location of the encounter. I did a google translate and basically the contents in English are similar. So far both Japanese and Chinese official sources had not disclosed the location and unless they do we will not have confirmation.

I went on the Japanese Business Press article and used translation software as well, but I saw nothing that said the Su-30s entered the airspace of the disputed islands... but then again I was only able to translate the first page of the article, the rest of it is behind a paywall.

If the Su-30s actually entered the "territorial" airspace around the disputed islands then I'd agree that this would be a step up the escalation ladder, but so far, based on all the other english language articles, I don't think this has happened. If they did actually enter "territorial" airspace, then I imagine we would have seen it consistently mentioned across a wide number of english language articles.

Instead, no news media articles that I've read have claimed that the Su-30s had entered the airspace around the islands, and in the english language japanese article before, it even went to say that no Chinese aircraft have tried to actually enter the airspace directly around the disputed islands.

If this is a one off incident, then it is history and both sides can move on. If China intends to go down a certain escalation path, then there will be other incidents and the details will eventually surface.

I think China is definitely going to "escalate" in the sense that it will make much more frequent flights around the islands in coming years, but that will coincide with greater overall operating tempo of the navy and air force as a whole as the military increases in proficiency.

It is also likely that they will gradually ramp up the willingness to send military aircraft and ships within the "territorial" boundaries of the disputed islands, to maintain its claim and continue to display its determination in this territorial dispute. I imagine they will seek to eventually "normalize" the presence of military aircraft and ships around the islands in the long term.

superdog · Jul 6, 2016

Bltizo said:
I went on the Japanese Business Press article and used translation software as well, but I saw nothing that said the Su-30s entered the airspace of the disputed islands... but then again I was only able to translate the first page of the article, the rest of it is behind a paywall.

If the Su-30s actually entered the "territorial" airspace around the disputed islands then I'd agree that this would be a step up the escalation ladder, but so far, based on all the other english language articles, I don't think this has happened. If they did actually enter "territorial" airspace, then I imagine we would have seen it consistently mentioned across a wide number of english language articles.

Instead, no news media articles that I've read have claimed that the Su-30s had entered the airspace around the islands, and in the english language japanese article before, it even went to say that no Chinese aircraft have tried to actually enter the airspace directly around the disputed islands.

I think China is definitely going to "escalate" in the sense that it will make much more frequent flights around the islands in coming years, but that will coincide with greater overall operating tempo of the navy and air force as a whole as the military increases in proficiency.

It is also likely that they will gradually ramp up the willingness to send military aircraft and ships within the "territorial" boundaries of the disputed islands, to maintain its claim and continue to display its determination in this territorial dispute. I imagine they will seek to eventually "normalize" the presence of military aircraft and ships around the islands in the long term.

The ex-lieutenant general Kunio Oda was trying use this incident to gain attention about "Chinese aggression". The Japanese government and the JSDF were trying to downplay the incident and denied that Chinese fighters took any offensive action. If neither side explicitly stated the Su-30s entered "territorial" airspace, you can pretty much be sure that it did not happen there.

SamuraiBlue · Jul 6, 2016

People really do not take much attention to the things other people posted do you.
If you watch the vid you'll find your answer even if you do not understand the language since the pilot's dialog is self explaining enough.
I also like to state that is normal procedure by all nations and would not actually let intruders violate territorial space without explicit warning with the last measure to shoot down the plane if it head deeper into territorial space without stating their intentions and are armed.

siegecrossbow · Jul 6, 2016

I wonder if the Su-30s involved took off from Quzhou. I've stayed there last summer and Su-30s were training in the city every day from 10:00 to 7:00.

AndrewS · Jul 6, 2016

People really do not take much attention to the things other people posted do you.
If you watch the vid you'll find your answer even if you do not understand the language since the pilot's dialog is self explaining enough.
I also like to state that is normal procedure by all nations and would not actually let intruders violate territorial space without explicit warning with the last measure to shoot down the plane if it head deeper into territorial space without stating their intentions and are armed.

But the problem is that everyone in the world (except Japan) recognises the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands as disputed territory, not Japanese territory.

So why bother firing tracer rounds as a warning that the Chinese jets will be shot down when:

a) such an action will backfire on Japan in terms of international politics
b) it is highly questionable whether the Japanese Air Force would be able to win a contest over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, especially if China had gathered an overwhelming force for a set piece encounter.

Without US involvement, China has the capacity to simply keep pushing Japan until Chinese jets are routinely overflying the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Whether China should do this is another question however, and is influenced by how much Japan involves itself in the SCS.

Japan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

AndrewS

Brigadier

Brumby

Major

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

Brumby

Major

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

superdog

Junior Member

SamuraiBlue

Captain

siegecrossbow

General

AndrewS

Brigadier