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I still haven't watched the ROE video yet, but if firing tracer rounds is standard Japanese ROE for the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, then those rules are simply stupid.

Tracer rounds are fired as warning shots in prelude to firing, but a Japanese fighter jet cannot credibly shoot down a Chinese jet, as everyone in the world (except Japan) recognises that the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands are disputed.

That includes the USA which officially takes no view on the sovereignty of the islands - so they would be obliged to condemn the actions of the party that fired first.

China's goal is just to flyby the islands/airspace and demonstrate that the islands are disputed territory, whilst Japan is trying to demonstrate sovereignty which requires them to shoot down overflying aircraft.

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A second Japanese F-15 squadron was added to Okinawa earlier this year which has doubled the number of aircraft available, but this hasn't solved the problem of the pilots being run ragged and the planes being worn out.

They simply now have to deal with deal with 200 scrambles per quarter, which is twice as many as last year. Reference here:

If it chooses to do so, China can keep this up all day long, until the entire Japanese Air Force breaks or until Japan declines to involve itself in the SCS. From the Chinese perspective, it's just useful training that allows its much larger number of pilots and planes to be seasoned, as they still need more practice.

I also wouldn't be surprised if a J-20 stealth fighter squadron is operating in the area next year, given that 3+ production aircraft have already been delivered.

I am so tempted to post that Space ball's scene with the Warning shots.
"I said across her nose not Up it!"

Warning shots and Tracer Fire is a practice used to get another pilot's attention when radio communication has not been responsive or ignored normally as a clear and present message to get lost.
It's a warning taken with great care and pointed off to the side but in view of the other aircraft's cockpit. The Lead plane would move off to take the shots well the wingman would stay behind, One an easy way to do that would be to push the aircraft above or below the horizon of the Intruder aircraft well and keeping the pipper in dead space and then let rip a short burst.
The loading for a western high caliber weapon like the 20mm is usually every third to fifth shell being a tracer given the rate of Fire of a Vulcan cannon like those on the F15J It's likely that the burst limiter was used meaning about 45 rounds were sprayed.
The Flanker pilot will see a Stripe of glowing light off to his side it would depending on lighting look like something out of a Scifi movie It's then up to the intruder to either change course or engage. The reason for the shot is to say in no uncertain terms "Get lost Or else." The lead Ship would begin maneuvering back to his wingman.
Given the number of reports of Intercepts of American and Japanese bird and the regularity It was only a matter of time before this incident, and the next.

siegecrossbow said:

If they indeed released flares instead of chaff it would imply that the engagement got quite close. I don't think you need fire-control radar to get off an IR round.

That said, how could the pilot tell whether he/she is locked on in a WVR dogfight?

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Considering interceptions are all done within visual range, then yeah it goes without saying that this encounter was within visual range. We don't exactly need the launch of a flare to tell us that.

As for IR missiles -- I believe they still need fire control radar to cue their IR seekers, and possibly even if they are only using guns.
Newer IR missiles can rely on helmet sight or display cuing, or some can rely on IRST

TerraN_EmpirE said:

I am so tempted to post that Space ball's scene with the Warning shots.
"I said across her nose not Up it!"

Warning shots and Tracer Fire is a practice used to get another pilot's attention when radio communication has not been responsive or ignored normally as a clear and present message to get lost.
It's a warning taken with great care and pointed off to the side but in view of the other aircraft's cockpit. The Lead plane would move off to take the shots well the wingman would stay behind, One an easy way to do that would be to push the aircraft above or below the horizon of the Intruder aircraft well and keeping the pipper in dead space and then let rip a short burst.
The loading for a western high caliber weapon like the 20mm is usually every third to fifth shell being a tracer given the rate of Fire of a Vulcan cannon like those on the F15J It's likely that the burst limiter was used meaning about 45 rounds were sprayed.
The Flanker pilot will see a Stripe of glowing light off to his side it would depending on lighting look like something out of a Scifi movie It's then up to the intruder to either change course or engage. The reason for the shot is to say in no uncertain terms "Get lost Or else." The lead Ship would begin maneuvering back to his wingman.
Given the number of reports of Intercepts of American and Japanese bird and the regularity It was only a matter of time before this incident, and the next.

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The message of tracer rounds is fairly obvious, that isn't a matter of question.

I'm more wondering whether the JASDF in this case were actually looking to get a plane on the six o'clock of the Su-30s to fire tracers from that position.
If they were only going to remain on the side of the Su-30s to fire tracers then that is mildly less provocative.

I wonder if the PLAAF uses tracer rounds as part of their standard SOP as well...

AndrewS said:

A second Japanese F-15 squadron was added to Okinawa earlier this year which has doubled the number of aircraft available, but this hasn't solved the problem of the pilots being run ragged and the planes being worn out.

They simply now have to deal with deal with 200 scrambles per quarter, which is twice as many as last year. Reference here:

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If it chooses to do so, China can keep this up all day long, until the entire Japanese Air Force breaks or until Japan declines to involve itself in the SCS. From the Chinese perspective, it's just useful training that allows its much larger number of pilots and planes to be seasoned, as they still need more practice.

I also wouldn't be surprised if a J-20 stealth fighter squadron is operating in the area next year, given that 3+ production aircraft have already been delivered.

Click to expand...

Japan is getting her first shipment of F-35s next year, I believe. Situation will improve by then.

The Aim of a warning shot is to make it clear, that you as an aviator are capable of sending the other guy to a fiery crater if they do not comply. as such you want to be behind but not lined up for a shot. as such 530 or 630 positions would probably be optimum.
As to PLA Tracers??? I Would bet yes as the PLA has to have studied the KLA 007 affaire. That was not that far away from the PRC and the Russian Pilot in that incident claims he tried to fire warning shots at the 747, but was not packing tracer rounds. So all his ammo was an invisible rain of burning lead.

I also wouldn't be surprised if a J-20 stealth fighter squadron is operating in the area next year, given that 3+ production aircraft have already been delivered.

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It takes more then a handful of birds to make a squadron If you said 2018 I would say Okay but 2017 is to soon. Same for the F35's I would lay my money on F35/J20 intercepts by early 2019. Neither side is going to give an inch. expect more oh these pissing matches in the skies

AndrewS said:

I also wouldn't be surprised if a J-20 stealth fighter squadron is operating in the area next year, given that 3+ production aircraft have already been delivered.

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I sincerely doubt it, given the initial J-20s would be tasked to allow the air force to develop tactics and SOPs and familiarize maintenance crew with the type... actual deployments in international air space is years away. I imagine they would field a couple of regiments first near major Chinese cities, before commissioning additional J-20 regiments near potential trouble spots... and even then I think they would only be comfortable having them fly missions in international airspace once they have a larger number of J-20s in service, say 100 or so.

In fact I doubt J-20s with Al-31s as they are would be sent to do these kinds of missions even in a few year's time, given they would still be using very suboptimal powerplants, and that these interception encounters are done in visual range where kinematics become very important.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

The Aim of a warning shot is to make it clear, that you as an aviator are capable of sending the other guy to a fiery crater if they do not comply. as such you want to be behind but not lined up for a shot. as such 530 or 630 positions would probably be optimum.

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Like I said, I'm fully aware of what tracers are meant to signify, however letting off tracer rounds behind an aircraft at their 6 o'clock or even if its 530 or 630, is still awfully provocative. Doing so on the wing is somewhat less provocative.

I'm also interested in where this encounter took place from what I can see it was within international air space, so it seems a little bit aggressive to use a warning like firing tracer rounds.

From what I can see, even the US intercept procedure involves the intercepting jet launching off flares first before doing anything else, and I'm not aware of the use of tracer rounds in international airspace as a warning being SOP for any nation's air force part from the JASDF... though I'd be interested if people can bring up air forces which do use tracers in that case.

Bltizo said:

I sincerely doubt it, given the initial J-20s would be tasked to allow the air force to develop tactics and SOPs and familiarize maintenance crew with the type... actual deployments in international air space is years away. I imagine they would field a couple of regiments first near major Chinese cities, before commissioning additional J-20 regiments near potential trouble spots... and even then I think they would only be comfortable having them fly missions in international airspace once they have a larger number of J-20s in service, say 100 or so.

In fact I doubt J-20s with Al-31s as they are would be sent to do these kinds of missions even in a few year's time, given they would still be using very suboptimal powerplants, and that these interception encounters are done in visual range where kinematics become very important.

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Not to mention the fact that it'll expose the radar signature.

That said, I think it's possible that PLAAF will allow J-20s to shadow other fighters in the East China Sea. If something bad does transpire, it's always good to have backup, especially the stealthy kind.

Bltizo said:

I sincerely doubt it, given the initial J-20s would be tasked to allow the air force to develop tactics and SOPs and familiarize maintenance crew with the type... actual deployments in international air space is years away. I imagine they would field a couple of regiments first near major Chinese cities, before commissioning additional J-20 regiments near potential trouble spots... and even then I think they would only be comfortable having them fly missions in international airspace once they have a larger number of J-20s in service, say 100 or so.

In fact I doubt J-20s with Al-31s as they are would be sent to do these kinds of missions even in a few year's time, given they would still be using very suboptimal powerplants, and that these interception encounters are done in visual range where kinematics become very important.

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I wouldn't underestimate the maneuverability of J-20 with Al-31. Even before the engine upgrade it should be able to match any opponent other than the Su-35/Pak-FA/F-22 (none of which will be in the JASDF) in terms of maneuverability. With that said, I agree with you that the J-20 won't be used in these confrontational missions in the near future, at least not until it is widely deployed or if Japan tries to send in F-35 first. Even then, it will most likely take the role of shadowing front-line J-11/J-16/Su-30 rather than being a front-line presence itself. Given that it is a stealthy aircraft, the J-20 is naturally unsuitable for these "showing my presence" missions.