Japan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

superdog said:

I wouldn't underestimate the maneuverability of J-20 with Al-31. Even before the engine upgrade it should be able to match any opponent other than the Su-35/Pak-FA/F-22 (none of which will be in the JASDF) in terms of maneuverability.

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I don't want to discuss kinematics in any kind of detail, especially if it's trying to compare different fighters... but I will say that I would be quite averse to the idea of sending J-20s with Al-31s in a situation where the primary task may result in competitive and aggressive WVR maneuvering against opposing fighters.

With that said, I agree with you that the J-20 won't be used in these confrontational missions in the near future, at least not until it is widely deployed or if Japan tries to send in F-35 first. Even then, it will most likely take the role of shadowing front-line J-11/J-16/Su-30 rather than being a front-line presence itself. Given that it is a stealthy aircraft, the J-20 is naturally unsuitable for these "showing my presence" missions.

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I agree, I think J-20s can definitely eventually have a role in acting as the "back end support" for 4/4+ generation fighters which will likely do the main job of flying patrol missions -- with advanced sensors and stealth, the J-20s can maintain a holding pattern a few hundred km behind the forward fighters patrolling, and help to monitor and coordinate responses and movements, and if things turn ugly and an exchange of fire occurs, J-20s can supercruise in (which they will be able to do even with Al-31s) and intervene in BVR.

siegecrossbow said:

Japan is getting her first shipment of F-35s next year, I believe. Situation will improve by then.

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I think if Japan uses F-35 for these missions it will be very welcomed by the PLAAF/PLAN, as it will give them opportunities to observe F-35's real-life performance characteristics. This may in turn result in even more fly-by/interceptions.

Also, like Bltizo said about the J-20, if things go wrong in a WVR engagement, F-35 will lose its biggest advantages (stealth and BVR capabilities) and therefore may not always have the upper hand against previous gen opponents. They may do the job just as well or moderately better than the old F-15J, but it's not a very efficient use of F-35's capabilities. I think Japan would benefit from having some newer F-15's in their fleet, even after they've got their F-35.

Bltizo said:

If anything it seems like the JASDF got a bit eager and tried to get one over the Chinese Su-30s by trying to get on their six, but ended up getting done over themselves in response and had to let out flares to signal their disengagement.

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I guess most Japanese and Americans pilots do insistently believe that PLAAF pilots are ALWAYS inferior to USAF and JSDAF pilots in terms of combat flying skills.

The opfor think that the annual PLAAF Golden Helmet Confrontational Combat competitions are some over-hyped Miss Universe show.

According to the western media, don't worry even Thai AF pilots beat the PLAAF with a 4:0 score.

The truth in ADIZ space tells another story.
It seems PLAAF are only sending old Su-30 and old J-10A.
PLAAF have not sent in the newer J-11B, and J-10B, and J-10C.
There is no need at all for PLAAF to send J-20s.

At this moment, it seems that JSDAF pilots are being seriously overwhelmed by PLAAF pilots 6 o'clock positioning skills using the old Su-30 and J-10A. JSDAF pilots ( with Black Circle on their eyes ) are sleeping beside their beloved F-15J++ planes everyday.

JSDAF shall urgently ask USAF with their King of the Hill F-22 and its deputy F-35 with its fusion sensors to patrol the Diao Yu island ADIZ immediately.
Forget about National pride.

GreenestGDP said:

I guess most Japanese and Americans pilots do insistently believe that PLAAF pilots are ALWAYS inferior to USAF and JSDAF pilots in terms of combat flying skills.

The opfor think that the annual PLAAF Golden Helmet Confrontational Combat competitions are some over-hyped Miss Universe show.

According to the western media, don't worry even Thai AF pilots beat the PLAAF with a 4:0 score.

The truth in ADIZ space tells another story.
At this moment, it seems that JSDAF is being seriously overwhelmed by PLAAF. JSDAF pilots ( with Black Circle on their eyes ) are sleeping beside their beloved F-15J++ planes.

JSDAF shall urgently ask USAF with their King of the Hill F-22 and its deputy F-35 with its fusion sensors to patrol the Diao Yu island ADIZ immediately.
Forget about National pride.

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Let's avoid making too many big assumptions or predictions.

Also, this is only a single lone encounter between a couple of jets on each side, it doesn't mean very much and it would be illogical to make too many big inferences from it, so calm down.

It is not a single lone encounter.
There were many ongoing JSDAF vs PLAAF encounters since Japan decides to provoke PRC repeatedly in South China Sea in 2015.

Thank God, the retired Japanese Military officer speak up and revealed the truths. I guess he is worrying about long term JSDAF pilots wellbeing for living under extreme duress all the time facing PLAAF superior old fighters and pilots.

GreenestGDP said:

It is not a single lone encounter.
There were many ongoing JSDAF vs PLAAF encounters since Japan decides to provoke PRC repeatedly in South China Sea in 2015.

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I believe this is the only encounter in recent years that we have this amount of detail -- we do not know how previous encounters have shaped up.

The point is that we shouldn't try to infer too much from only air interception missions -- air interception is far from being equal to "air combat" and generally does not require or reflect upon either side's air combat maneuvring capabilities.

Bltizo said:

Let's avoid making too many big assumptions or predictions.

Also, this is only a single lone encounter between a couple of jets on each side, it doesn't mean very much and it would be illogical to make too many big inferences from it, so calm down.

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According to pupu, there was a similar confrontation earlier this June between a J-11B and a F-15. Guess it didn't escalate as far.

siegecrossbow said:

According to pupu, there was a similar confrontation earlier this June between a J-11B and a F-15. Guess it didn't escalate as far.

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Regardless, the point I'm making is that it's not sensible to infer too much about the perceived competency of pilots in air combat maneuvring simply from interception encounters.

Such encounters are not reflective of combat because despite the vigilance of both sides, neither are trying to actively shoot the other down either.

@Bltizo

I stand by my statement.

I expect the first operational J-20 squadron to be deployed to either Beijing or Wuxi. Note that Wuxi covers Shanghai, Japan, Korea and the East China Sea.

Given a modest production rampup, I wouldn't be surprised if 2 squadrons will have been delivered and IOC declared towards the end of next year.

Given that that the Chinese Air Force has now doubled flights to an average of 2 flights per day in the ECS, they should be running unpredictable flight patterns as they have the initiative and can choose where/when/how many planes to put into the air.

Even with the extra F-15 squadron, does this mean Naha airbase/airport is now running on a 24/7 footing where nobody is getting any sleep?

From the Chinese perspective, they could continue escalating and keep this up for decades.

Note that the same calculation applies to the Chinese Coast Guard in the East China Seas.