J-35A fighter (PLAAF) + FC-31 thread

[ENTED64]

I would preface this by saying that it is plausible that J-35A is not produced at very high rate and we have had rumors that the production run would be more like 200 or something. However it's impossible to say for certain right now and some of the arguments I think are a little weak:

1. The J-20/A/S production rate is already at 100+ per year, whilst the J-35A is still only ramping up. At this point, it should be much easier to further increase J-20 production than J-35 production.

We've been hearing through rumors though that Chengdu is mostly capped out at 100 J-20 a year and has been for a while. In theory they can expand production but it seems for whatever reason that hasn't happened so it's unclear by this point if it would be easier to expand J-20 than J-35A given that the decision to procure J-35A has already been made.

2. Chinese doctrine has shifted to long-range air superiority, which favours the larger J-20 over J-35. And there shouldn't be much of a cost premium for the J-20, if any.

There should be some cost premium, I think that was definitely part of the point of J-35A and in particular the PLAAF J-35A costing less than PLAN J-35.

3. US 5th gen fighter production is at 150 per year. You would expect China to at least match this, given the China-US arms race. That would mean J-35 production at a maximum of 50 per year, given that the J-20 is already at 100 per year.

It's possible China wants to produce more than US, after all in terms of total fleet strength China is still well behind. There is no rule that says PLA can only match US production, just look at how PLAN has acquired way more modern destroyers in the last 10 years than USN.

5. And there is an outside possibility that Shenyang also starts J-20 production. Both Shenyang and Chengdu are owned by the central government, and the Director at Shenyang is a transplant from Chengdu.

This is possible but at this point it seems highly unlikely.

 

[tphuang]

Again, based on the size of the CFRP building and investment in SAC's new compound, this is likely a facility that could theoretically eventually crank out 200+ aircraft per year (or maybe even 300 during wartime conditions). Although in reality, production rate will obviously depend on SAC winning certain contract from PLA, export contracts, supply chain and drones vs fighter mix. I'd imagine if PLA goes for more large drones and SAC wins them, it can produce a lot.

I don't frankly think it's all that productive to make guesses on SAC output build on factory size, since it depends on many factors.

 

[AndrewS]

Again, based on the size of the CFRP building and investment in SAC's new compound, this is likely a facility that could theoretically eventually crank out 200+ aircraft per year (or maybe even 300 during wartime conditions). Although in reality, production rate will obviously depend on SAC winning certain contract from PLA, export contracts, supply chain and drones vs fighter mix. I'd imagine if PLA goes for more large drones and SAC wins them, it can produce a lot.

I don't frankly think it's all that productive to make guesses on SAC output build on factory size, since it depends on many factors.

Given a peacetime scenario, I see a maximum production rate of 200 stealth fighters per year (both J-20 and J-35)

By the time they ramp up to this level (in 2 years minimum), there would be at least 600 in total.
Then after a 5 production run, there would be a total of 1600+ stealth fighters.

By that point, I think it becomes really obvious that the Chinese Air Force can easily obtain air superiority over the First Island Chain.
Additional aircraft will arguably be excessive.

---

In comparison, if they settle for 150 per year, it should be a lot cheaper and the additional delay is only 1 year.

 

[by78]

Self-explanatory.

 

[Deino]

Self-explanatory.

Just a maybe stupid idea, but how likely is it, that in fact the 1st Air Brigade transferred its J-20 to the 2nd Air Brigade and is transitioning to the J-35A now instead of becoming a mixed unit flying two fighters?

 

[TK3600]

Believe it or not, Shengyang aircraft stock rose 10%. I'd say mass production is very likely, and we might see official news media covering it!

 

[naoseidenada]

Self-explanatory.

it is curious, at least for me, that the j-35a doesn´t have light grey RAMs in edges like the j-20, if it has RAMs applied.

 

[taxiya]

Self-explanatory.

Worth to note is that these J-35As (or the same one) have their weapons bay doors and landing gear doors applied seals like J-20. I went back to check the photos from Zhuhai 2024, even the closest and clearest J-35A (below) did not have these seals. Another thing is the darker and teak coating of the canopy which was not seen in 2024 (from any angle).

Once again, what we see now are final productions while 2024s were either prototypes or "rushed" pre-productions. One telltale of "rushing" is the missing paint of the forward fuselage just in front of the intake that reveals the primer in cyan blue.

 

[taxiya]

Interesting J-35A has a completely different coating, differ from J-20 or J-20A/S, so why? A completely different coating material source?

Same question can be asked about different color of Chinese flankers. The answer is probably nothing.

 

[taxiya]

it is curious, at least for me, that the j-35a doesn´t have light grey RAMs in edges like the j-20, if it has RAMs applied.

Give it some time. I have a strong feeling that J-35A was rushed to be shown in public before everything is finalized. The only quality photo so far is the one you replied to with panel and doors seals. All earlier photos are of half finished product that does not reflect the final product. Maybe you will see the edge treatment in later photos just like the door sealings.