Agreed. I do believe, however, that such a vast expansion of floor space suggests that the J-35/A will be procured in quantities comparable to the J-20/A/S.
J-35A fighter (PLAAF) + FC-31 thread
- Thread starter ACuriousPLAFan
- Start date
At first glance, I thought the J-35A was in the back.
But it is in front. The J-20 is a massively large aircraft.
Not quite. Lockheed Martin Plant 4 has 696,000 sqm and an upper limit of 156 airframes per year. At 280,000 sqm, the Shenyang facility should produce 62 airframes per year.
I think the 696,000sqm is for the overall size inclusive of other buildings and/or even parts of the tarmac.
The building itself at Plant 4 has a somewhat more modest area of about 288,000 sqm
I remember when the SAC factory was announced a few years ago with the size of its building, someone calculated this:
Has anyone measured the CAC factory floor similarly? I think it would be easier to attempt to extrapolate (potential) production capacity from an analogous Chinese factory rather than LM.
CAC's buildings are more distributed, so it won't be a like for like comparison.
Build rate also is not dependent on floor space alone, but tooling, personnel, etc, and trying to hold those equal is difficult.
Better to not try and extrapolate things in a like for like way and just rely on credible rumours imo.
Shenyang is very cold during the winter, and its overall temperature can fluctuate more than Chengdu's. In this regard, there are benefits to concentrating production, especially for sensitive material
From a fleet perspective, I think J-35 numbers and procurement should be significantly lower than for the J-20.
1. The J-20/A/S production rate is already at 100+ per year, whilst the J-35A is still only ramping up. At this point, it should be much easier to further increase J-20 production than J-35 production.
2. Chinese doctrine has shifted to long-range air superiority, which favours the larger J-20 over J-35. And there shouldn't be much of a cost premium for the J-20, if any.
3. US 5th gen fighter production is at 150 per year. You would expect China to at least match this, given the China-US arms race. That would mean J-35 production at a maximum of 50 per year, given that the J-20 is already at 100 per year.
4. But suppose they are aiming for 200 per year? Then I think the optimal ramp up and force composition would look like 120-150 J-20 per year, with the rest as the J-35. Yes, that should still leave spare floorspace at Shenyang, but I think there are other projects underway and future expansion.
5. And there is an outside possibility that Shenyang also starts J-20 production. Both Shenyang and Chengdu are owned by the central government, and the Director at Shenyang is a transplant from Chengdu.
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