Numbers.
Decreased price (to f-35 price point, possibly despite inflation) means intention to procure "new" ngad in very high numbers.
This way, it turns into f-35 replacement, as main a2a threat.
Consequently, you need to pitch it against your line aircraft of 2030s. I.e. updated j-20 and j-35 families.
Let's see if they actually continue with the program first and Trump doesn't cancel it.
Let's say they actually gets to a sawed-off version. Why would a $100M plane be in "very" high numbers?
Why would it be in any greater numbers than the 6th gens from CAC and SAC?
The delay to the NGAD to me makes things very straight forward. It points to masses of J-20 and J-35s versus the F-35s in Westpac and masses of 6th gen from CAC and SAC overwhelming a much lower spec'ed NGAD that is still expensive as the F-35 but delayed and less likely to reach the same mass production levels as the J-36, the JH-XX, etc. during the same time.
The "overcapacity" you see in Chinese ships is starting to take place in the aircraft industry. Even if the NGAD project had been smooth and started at an acceptable pricepoint, it would still have been doubtful that it could match China numbers. But it is now delayed and under the threat of cancellation so the idea of a "mini-NGAD" doing any number challenge to the Chinese industry in a few years is even less likely.
