J-35A fighter (PLAAF) + FC-31 thread

[antwerpery]

If you look at the costs of these American programs F-35, NGAD, Columbia ($15B for first boat, $130B for program), etc. you are seeing the reverse of the Cold War where the US spent the USSR to bankruptcy.

The J-20, J-35, the new 6th gens, Type 076, Type 095, Type 096, Type 055 and the coming Type 004/005 will each elicit immensely expensive responses from the US because their capabilities will demand it.

I will add on that excess military spending usually bankrupts nations because usually military investments tend to yield a much lower economical return than other ways of spending money. This quote from Eisenhower says it well

Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.
This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some fifty miles of concrete pavement. We pay for a single fighter with a half-million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people. . . . This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron

The difference is that China has tons of brand new infrastructure, while America's infrastructure is old and in dire need of updates. Also China has really leaned into military/civilian fusion, so that both support the other. Major examples would be how the navy can piggyback off commercial chinese shipyards, how commercial drones are both a extremely good civilian tool- and an extremely deadly weapon and the how commercial Chinese aviation benefits from the military's research into engines, avionics and materials. Also, chinese companies don't demand a insane markup compared to America's corrupt MIC.

 

[Gloire_bb]

Sorry, it’s not too clear what you are saying here. What do you mean by holding expected much higher mini-NGAD mass?

Numbers.
Decreased price (to f-35 price point, possibly despite inflation) means intention to procure "new" ngad in very high numbers.

This way, it turns into f-35 replacement, as main a2a threat.

Consequently, you need to pitch it against your line aircraft of 2030s. I.e. updated j-20 and j-35 families.

 

[tphuang]

Numbers.
Decreased price (to f-35 price point, possibly despite inflation) means intention to procure "new" ngad in very high numbers.

This way, it turns into f-35 replacement, as main a2a threat.

Consequently, you need to pitch it against your line aircraft of 2030s. I.e. updated j-20 and j-35 families.

So you buy into the notion that they will go with low end short ranged 6th gen aircraft for westpac conflict? That’s interesting.

 

[Gloire_bb]

So you buy into the notion that they will go with low end short ranged 6th gen aircraft for westpac conflict? That’s interesting.

Yes, given what's happening around f-35, I think it's reasonable.

 

[Deino]

Guys … calm down and posting NGAD-reports + discussion in the J-35 thread is simply OFF-TOPIC!

 

[GiantPanda]

Numbers.
Decreased price (to f-35 price point, possibly despite inflation) means intention to procure "new" ngad in very high numbers.

This way, it turns into f-35 replacement, as main a2a threat.

Consequently, you need to pitch it against your line aircraft of 2030s. I.e. updated j-20 and j-35 families.

Let's see if they actually continue with the program first and Trump doesn't cancel it.

Let's say they actually gets to a sawed-off version. Why would a $100M plane be in "very" high numbers?

Why would it be in any greater numbers than the 6th gens from CAC and SAC?

The delay to the NGAD to me makes things very straight forward. It points to masses of J-20 and J-35s versus the F-35s in Westpac and masses of 6th gen from CAC and SAC overwhelming a much lower spec'ed NGAD that is still expensive as the F-35 but delayed and less likely to reach the same mass production levels as the J-36, the JH-XX, etc. during the same time.

The "overcapacity" you see in Chinese ships is starting to take place in the aircraft industry. Even if the NGAD project had been smooth and started at an acceptable pricepoint, it would still have been doubtful that it could match China numbers. But it is now delayed and under the threat of cancellation so the idea of a "mini-NGAD" doing any number challenge to the Chinese industry in a few years is even less likely.

 

[Biscuits]

Let's see if they actually continue with the program first and Trump doesn't cancel it.

Let's say they actually gets to a sawed-off version. Why would a $100M plane be in "very" high numbers?

Why would it be in any greater numbers than the 6th gens from CAC and SAC?

The delay to the NGAD to me makes things very straight forward. It points to masses of J-20 and J-35s versus the F-35s in Westpac and masses of 6th gen from CAC and SAC overwhelming a much lower spec'ed NGAD that is still expensive as the F-35 but delayed and less likely to reach the same mass production levels as the J-36, the JH-XX, etc. during the same time.

The "overcapacity" you see in Chinese ships is starting to take place in the aircraft industry. Even if the NGAD project had been smooth and started at an acceptable pricepoint, it would still have been doubtful that it could match China numbers. But it is now delayed and under the threat of cancellation so the idea of a "mini-NGAD" doing any number challenge to the Chinese industry in a few years is even less likely.

It's a bit pointless since we have no ideas on the specs for NGAD. It could be a flanker/deep penetration aircraft like J-36. It could also be a frontline aircraft as @Gloire_bb describes.

In the latter case, various 5th gens will have shoulder the burden of facing it head on, but they'll also not be alone, they'll have J-36s on the flanks/reserves assisting, possibly also a frontline beefed up by the Shenyang aircraft since its shaping up to be 6th gen dedicated air superiority.

Should probably wait for it to make first flight before we think too much about counter 6th gen tactics.

 

[by78]

Ushering in 2025.