Some comments from US intelligence
China's Missile and Stealth Fighter Advances Draw U.S. Attention
By Tony Capaccio - Jan 5, 2011 2:35 PM ET
The Pentagon underestimated the speed at which China has developed and fielded a ballistic missile that may be capable of hitting a maneuvering U.S. aircraft carrier, the head of Navy intelligence said today.
“We underestimated when they would be competent and capable of delivering a technological weapon of that type,” Vice Admiral Jack Dorsett told defense reporters. The DF-21D missile now has so-called initial combat capability, he said, according to his analysts and U.S. Pacific Command head Admiral Robert Willard.
“We’ve been on the mark on an awful lot of our assessments but there has been a handful of things we have underestimated,” Dorsett said.
Dorsett said it was too early to tell whether the U.S. also has misjudged China’s capability to build a stealth fighter jet comparable to the U.S. F-22. The purportedly stealthy aircraft, known as the J-20, would be a first for China.
The Chinese have tested the DF-21D missile over land a sufficient number of times to conclude that “the missile system itself is truly competent and capable,” Dorsett said. Still, China has not yet demonstrated a capability to use the missile effectively in combat situations, he said.
China’s advances in military technology are drawing close scrutiny and concern from the Pentagon and new Republican- controlled House, particularly when they may jeopardize the dominance of U.S. naval forces in the Pacific region. News of the Chinese advances comes as Congress prepares to consider cuts in the Defense Department budget.
Chinese Threat
Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in a Sept. 16 speech that China’s “investments in anti-ship weaponry and ballistic missiles could threaten America’s primary way to project power and help allies in the Pacific -- particularly our forward bases and carrier strike groups.”
Gates is scheduled to visit China next week for talks seeking to improve military relations.
Dorsett’s remarks on the DF-21D status go further than the Pentagon did in its latest annual report on China’s military, released in August.
The 2010 report included a sketch of the notional flight profile of the new missile. It gave no indication that the missile had reached, or was close to, an initial combat capability. Nor did the report mention China’s new J-20 stealth fighter, which has appeared in photos on the Internet in recent days.
U.S. intelligence in particular misjudged China’s progress developing the technology necessary to sense and attack a maneuvering vessel, Dorsett said. Dorsett heads the Navy’s Office of Naval Operations for Information Dominance, which includes Navy intelligence.
Surprising Progress
On advances in ballistic-missile capabilities by the Chinese, Dorsett said “we certainly wouldn’t have expected them to be this far along” if asked five years ago.
“The technology has increased their probability of being able to employ a salvo of missiles to be able to hit a maneuvering target” he said.
Still, the Chinese military has yet to demonstrate it can effectively employ the missile, Dorsett said.
“They have certainly test fired this over land, but to our knowledge they have not test fired this over water against maneuvering targets,” he said.
China has “the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, they have sensors on ships that can feed into the missile for targeting,” he said. “So could they start to employ that? Yes, I think so.” He added that it is unclear how “proficient they are in the employment” of that capability.
Stealth Fighter
Photos of the J-20 aircraft have appeared on the Internet and Aviation Week & Space Technology reported Monday that the aircraft was conducing early runway tests as a prelude to a first test flight.
“I think time will tell whether we have underestimated. I’m not convinced that we have at this point. It will take more time,” Dorsett said.
The J-20 disclosure “was not a surprise,” Dorsett said. “It’s not clear to me” when the aircraft will reach its initial operational status.
“They have been able invest in a military build-up and a stealth fighter is just one aspect of that,” he said. “The fact they are making progress in that should not be a surprise us.”
“How far along are they? I don’t know. They clearly have an initial prototype,” Dorsett said. “Is it advanced and how many trials and test and demos do they need to go through before it becomes operational? That’s not clear to me.”
