This is largely repeating myself from previous posts, but this has a bit more flesh on the bones of the thinking.
Ok, so people are getting hung up about what we cannot say about this Plane based simply on a few taxi way photos. Actually, I agree but I also think there is a lot more that can be given a pretty good shot at, by simply looking at the bigger picture.
First off, I would not be disparaging about any major aircraft manufacturer and can only acknowledge their respective mastery of their craft. Each is I am sure competent and produces aircraft capable of performing the tasks required of them.
That being said, they are different companies and will therefore approach problems differently, in accordance with their past experience and their innate strengths and weaknesses. There are; no doubt, deep differences in doctrine between the Governments that these companies serve. In the US we get the impression that the aircraft must have required capability at any cost, while in China, this is more nuanced and cost control is given a higher priority even at the expense of capability.
One thing I have learned from dealing with Chinese companies in general is that they look at problems differently than do most Western companies. I doubt very much if Chinese Aircraft Manufacturers think in terms of “generation” when they come to design capability at the right price, but rather look at a range of technologies and capabilities that they wish to counter, neutralise and/or defeat. Part of this of course is a function of catch up, which means that the Chinese already have a target to aim for, while the US companies seem to be putting together the latest technologies and seeing what they get. The Chinese by contrast will not disregard a technology that is effective and cost efficient simply because it is not of “this generation”.
I would also be wary of looking at the design function purely through the prism of Western eyes. As others have mentioned Stealth is an amalgamation of different technologies and techniques and the Chengdu are likely to have strengths and weaknesses across the spectrum of these. In addition, given the level of innovation shown recently by Chinese companies in many industrial areas, where they now define the cutting edge, you should not discount that Chengdu have their own areas of innovation ahead of the rest. I would also add that the characteristic of completing projects ahead of time and under budget is a general Chinese strength not to be underestimated.
All of this adds up to the Chinese being likely to have produced an aircraft with a very particular objective in mind, rather a general technology demonstrator.
So, what have we got?
We have a large twin engine jet that is appears designed to monopolise on Stealth and range. It looks rather expensive compared to other Chinese planes and so I think it is a fair assumption that it would not be used for roles that would compromise the Stealth Advantage.
But what would that be?
I think the best answer is to look at the current and anticipated PLAAF inventory and see where it is most likely to best fit in.
The next thing to do is to look at the PLAAF planes that are top of the queue for withdrawal and replacement.
These are:
J-7 and J-8 Interceptors
Q5 – Ground Attack
H6 - Bombers
The new Aircraft seems a poor fit for any of these niches – wasted as a fast defender interceptor and losing its stealth advantage carrying externally mounted Ground Attack Munitions and with nothing like the carrying potential of the H6
Is then the new plane intended to replace something in or compliment the current front line tactical line up?
China’s front line is largely made up of highly capable aircraft from the Flanker and J-10 families, most are still new, effective multi strike and multi role aircraft capable of carrying significantly higher weapon payloads than that which can be carried in the internal bay of a Stealth Fighter. While some of the older Flankers may start to be rotated down from front line to replace older defenders, there is still no obvious fit for the J-20 to replace an existing niche currently occupied by these planes.
So, it looks like a new niche, but what is it?
As previously stated, the current front line of J-10’s and Flankers are very capable aircraft capable of carrying out the vast majority of China’s air defence needs, with one notable exception - having to penetrate enemy territory defended by Stealth Fighters.
To fill this gap, China would need a long distance, long endurance Air Superiority Fighter which capitalised on Stealth to ride shotgun for the Strike Aircraft, hunt the hunters and carry primarily Air to Air Munitions.
I believe that the J-20 is indeed that plane. I would further deduce that given the likely cost of the aircraft and its very particular mission, that numbers intended for service will be in the very low hundreds if indeed barely breaking into triple figures.
I also suspect that “Stealth” is not going to be a fundamental requirement of all new Chinese Aircraft, not at least until the cost of the technology is considerably reduced.
Ok, so people are getting hung up about what we cannot say about this Plane based simply on a few taxi way photos. Actually, I agree but I also think there is a lot more that can be given a pretty good shot at, by simply looking at the bigger picture.
First off, I would not be disparaging about any major aircraft manufacturer and can only acknowledge their respective mastery of their craft. Each is I am sure competent and produces aircraft capable of performing the tasks required of them.
That being said, they are different companies and will therefore approach problems differently, in accordance with their past experience and their innate strengths and weaknesses. There are; no doubt, deep differences in doctrine between the Governments that these companies serve. In the US we get the impression that the aircraft must have required capability at any cost, while in China, this is more nuanced and cost control is given a higher priority even at the expense of capability.
One thing I have learned from dealing with Chinese companies in general is that they look at problems differently than do most Western companies. I doubt very much if Chinese Aircraft Manufacturers think in terms of “generation” when they come to design capability at the right price, but rather look at a range of technologies and capabilities that they wish to counter, neutralise and/or defeat. Part of this of course is a function of catch up, which means that the Chinese already have a target to aim for, while the US companies seem to be putting together the latest technologies and seeing what they get. The Chinese by contrast will not disregard a technology that is effective and cost efficient simply because it is not of “this generation”.
I would also be wary of looking at the design function purely through the prism of Western eyes. As others have mentioned Stealth is an amalgamation of different technologies and techniques and the Chengdu are likely to have strengths and weaknesses across the spectrum of these. In addition, given the level of innovation shown recently by Chinese companies in many industrial areas, where they now define the cutting edge, you should not discount that Chengdu have their own areas of innovation ahead of the rest. I would also add that the characteristic of completing projects ahead of time and under budget is a general Chinese strength not to be underestimated.
All of this adds up to the Chinese being likely to have produced an aircraft with a very particular objective in mind, rather a general technology demonstrator.
So, what have we got?
We have a large twin engine jet that is appears designed to monopolise on Stealth and range. It looks rather expensive compared to other Chinese planes and so I think it is a fair assumption that it would not be used for roles that would compromise the Stealth Advantage.
But what would that be?
I think the best answer is to look at the current and anticipated PLAAF inventory and see where it is most likely to best fit in.
The next thing to do is to look at the PLAAF planes that are top of the queue for withdrawal and replacement.
These are:
J-7 and J-8 Interceptors
Q5 – Ground Attack
H6 - Bombers
The new Aircraft seems a poor fit for any of these niches – wasted as a fast defender interceptor and losing its stealth advantage carrying externally mounted Ground Attack Munitions and with nothing like the carrying potential of the H6
Is then the new plane intended to replace something in or compliment the current front line tactical line up?
China’s front line is largely made up of highly capable aircraft from the Flanker and J-10 families, most are still new, effective multi strike and multi role aircraft capable of carrying significantly higher weapon payloads than that which can be carried in the internal bay of a Stealth Fighter. While some of the older Flankers may start to be rotated down from front line to replace older defenders, there is still no obvious fit for the J-20 to replace an existing niche currently occupied by these planes.
So, it looks like a new niche, but what is it?
As previously stated, the current front line of J-10’s and Flankers are very capable aircraft capable of carrying out the vast majority of China’s air defence needs, with one notable exception - having to penetrate enemy territory defended by Stealth Fighters.
To fill this gap, China would need a long distance, long endurance Air Superiority Fighter which capitalised on Stealth to ride shotgun for the Strike Aircraft, hunt the hunters and carry primarily Air to Air Munitions.
I believe that the J-20 is indeed that plane. I would further deduce that given the likely cost of the aircraft and its very particular mission, that numbers intended for service will be in the very low hundreds if indeed barely breaking into triple figures.
I also suspect that “Stealth” is not going to be a fundamental requirement of all new Chinese Aircraft, not at least until the cost of the technology is considerably reduced.
