J-20... The New Generation Fighter III

MiG-29 said:

China is capable of developing a stealth fighter, no one doubts that, the unveiling was a proof, the US unvailed that information to say to the world F-35 can detect the F-22, is a propaganda war.


China unveils J-20, americans say we can detect our own F-22.

China will very likely built 200 perhaps more but it does not make sense build so many because if the F-35 will be built in numbers near 2000, then makes more sense build a light fighter like the F-35.

Russia and India are already working in that type of jet, China sure will do the same.

These fighters are expensive, even for nations like China, US, Russia, India, and Europe and at the long run people need to eat an dress, so no nation will survive building 100 F-22s come on, not even China, they need to make partners to finance the technology, Russia is doing it with India, the US with Europe, if you ask your self Italy will get stealth fighters soon named F-35s and they build parts of the F-35, is it an italian jet? no it is not.


So being realistic is not being a troll as you claim here, i am realitic and honest, it makes mroe sense to China do a light fighter with their allies like Russia and the US do.

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Yes it does make sense for China to build a lighter 5th generation fighter, and they almost definitely are developing one right now.

But we can't say whether the PLAAF will adopt a full 5th generation fighter fleet like the USAF. Maybe they will go for more heavier 5th generation fighters and 4+ generation fighters to make up the rest of the force instead.

the fact remains that it is possible the PLAAF could go for up to 500 J-20s and could afford it depending what kind of force composition they want.

Personally I think they will go for over 300 units.

MiG-29 said:

Ignore me it is okay with me, i have aerodynamic papers and reports that support me i do not use internet gossips and ganging to claim i am right, i use NASA papers to draw conclusions.

That is better i do not need discuss gossips.

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A man with money but who doesn't know how to spend it is not wealthy. He is just a man with a lot of money.

I will tell you something if you want to ban me do it ask as you did in indian defence, but i will be very honest with you men discuss topics respects other and men, if they do not agree can say let us cut the topic we can not reach an understanding or open a second thread, and believe me is a lack of respect the way you propose things if you want to say,this thread is only for those who are fans of J-20 without any critic to the design i won`t participate and in fact the moderators can simply ban no problem with me, but if you really want a forum where different views are seen then accept my opinions whatever different are to yours that is called respect to some ones opinions

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For all your talk about having respectful conversations, you have been the one accusing people of being immature or liars.

I don't have a problem with your different views. It's always interesting to see why different people have different opinions. It's why I even bother to respond to your posts. However just like there are criticisms of conclusions, there are criticisms of methods, and for the most part a lot of criticisms have revolved around your methodology and approach.

Part of having an honest discussion is being open to the possibility that you could be wrong. That is the whole point of using reason. However when we clearly point out instances where you might have overreached with or misapplied your studies (for example, citing points in studies you've used that contradict your conclusions) you seem to just assume we don't know what we're talking about. Instead of addressing those criticisms, you seem to ignore the reasoning behind the criticisms and just claim people must be wrong.

If it makes you feel an less singled out in this forum though, I do agree that China won't be producing that many J-20s (Probably 300-500 is a good number, and I lean towards the lower bound). However, unless China needs the same air force projection powers the US has, it won't need 2000 5th generation planes either. As Blitzo said, it can make do with a main fleet of 4++ generation fighters that can benefit off sensor fusion and force multipliers to fulfill successful defensive needs, with the J-20 used to perform more specialized functions that specifically require stealth. This calculus drastically changes if China is looking towards a more offensive force, or if its force multipliers and other assets are not enough to overcome a potential invader.

MiG-29 said:

Ignore me it is okay with me, i have aerodynamic papers and reports that support me i do not use internet gossips and ganging to claim i am right, i use NASA papers to draw conclusions.

That is better i do not need discuss gossips.

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Did your papers prove that China can't produce 500 J-20 in the future? Or papers saying China<all other countries? Or unbiased reports that offers a complete, finalized, study of the J-20 in all aspects, which support your conclusions? NO, so please don't post your thoughts here, since you don't discuss gossips.

Btw, we don't care about your papers.

MiG-29 said:

China is capable of developing a stealth fighter, no one doubts that, the unveiling was a proof, the US unvailed that information to say to the world F-35 can detect the F-22, is a propaganda war.


China unveils J-20, americans say we can detect our own F-22.

China will very likely built 200 perhaps more but it does not make sense build so many because if the F-35 will be built in numbers near 2000, then makes more sense build a light fighter like the F-35.

Russia and India are already working in that type of jet, China sure will do the same.

These fighters are expensive, even for nations like China, US, Russia, India, and Europe and at the long run people need to eat an dress, so no nation will survive building 1000 F-22s come on, not even China, they need to make partners to finance the technology, Russia is doing it with India, the US with Europe, if you ask your self Italy will get stealth fighters soon named F-35s and they build parts of the F-35, is it an italian jet? no it is not but they do participate and build parts.


So being realistic is not being a troll as you claim here, i am realitic and honest, it makes mroe sense to China make a light fighter with their allies like Russia and the US do.

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I also have already mentioned up there, I didn't disagree with you in that China should make some lighter 5th-gen fighters. NONE of us disagreed with you on that. The entire forum community aren't even going to go against you if you've made some valid and thoughtful arguments. It's only when your stuff is something of much less quality, irrelevant, deliberate, and you're posting it in here, then it creates a problem. We don't even mind if you post a photo of J-20 which turns out PS and it was an honest mistake. It's when the attempt is deliberate and done over and over again, then there's a problem. I hope you get the point.

latenlazy said:

A man with money but who doesn't know how to spend it is not wealthy. He is just a man with a lot of money.


For all your talk about having respectful conversations, you have been the one accusing people of being immature or liars.

I don't have a problem with your different views. It's always interesting to see why different people have different opinions. It's why I even bother to respond to your posts. However just like there are criticisms of conclusions, there are criticisms of methods, and for the most part a lot of criticisms have revolved around your methodology and approach.

Part of having an honest discussion is being open to the possibility that you could be wrong. That is the whole point of using reason. However when we clearly point out instances where you might have overreached with or misapplied your studies (for example, citing points in studies you've used that contradict your conclusions) you seem to just assume we don't know what we're talking about. Instead of addressing those criticisms, you seem to ignore the reasoning behind the criticisms and just claim people must be wrong.

If it makes you feel an less singled out in this forum though, I do agree that China won't be producing that many J-20s (Probably 300-500 is a good number, and I lean towards the lower bound). However, unless China needs the same air force projection powers the US has, it won't need 2000 5th generation planes either. As Blitzo said, it can make do with a main fleet of 4++ generation fighters that can benefit off sensor fusion and force multipliers to fulfill successful defensive needs, with the J-20 used to perform more specialized functions that specifically require stealth. This calculus drastically changes if China is looking towards a more offensive force, or if its force multipliers and other assets are not enough to overcome a potential invader.

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I won't be surprised if PRC lands around 300-400 J-20s, and the rest with lower ends 5gen + a huge batch of 4gen. Looking at how PRC upgraded the J-7s to this era, I don't see the possibility that PLAAF won't do this in the future.

All depends on $$$.

or I should say Y Y Y.

Economy bad = no toys for PLA.

i.e. said:

All depends on $$$.

or I should say Y Y Y.

Economy bad = no toys for PLA.

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Watch, the US defaults, and long term investments in China sink, interest rates go up, and aggregate income falls. That would be ugly.

latenlazy said:

Watch, the US defaults, and long term investments in China sink, interest rates go up, and aggregate income falls. That would be ugly.

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A little OT, but if the USA defaults, sure it will be bad for China in the short to medium term, but it will be positively disastrous for the USA and close allies like Japan and the UK for the short, medium and long term.

If the US defaults, the US$ will very likely cease to be the world's reserve currency very quickly as its value will fall through the floor and no-body would want to touch US financial assets for a very long time.

With China having, and accelerating its diversification of US$ assets into euros and physical and intellectual property rights, China's exposure to a US default has been reduced, and such a move by the US might actually benefit China in the long term as such a drastic move would cause the US to loose a vast amount of influence and power, in important institutions like the world bank, IMF, and huge amounts of capital that was previously invested in the US may well wish to re-locate elsewhere.

So China could potentially move in to fill the power vacuum and make political gains it would not expect to achieve in decades otherwise very quickly, and could also find itself much more attractive to foreign capital, technology and know-how as the best talented individuals and companies may well start quitting the US and moving to China much faster then they already are.

But this is already getting off topic, but getting a little back on topic, if the US defaults and its economy collapses as a result, the likes of the F35 will almost certainly be one of the first victims.

While the world would all suffer greatly, eventually countries will recover and would want 5th gen fighters again. With the F35 dead, the F22 finished and the US aerospace industry likely to have suffered a similar decline as the Russians suffered after the collapse of the USSR, China would suddenly become the go-to place to get a top of the line fifth gen if you are in the market.

With so much of the world's alliances and relations dependent on power and wealth, China may well suddenly find itself a lot more new friends if the US lost significant power, wealth and influence quickly, and so many wealthy countries who previously never even considered Chinese systems may suddenly become interested in a J20-lite.

But this is all rather far fetched, as the Americans would know better than anyone how badly they would suffer if they defaulted, so its simply not going to happen as long as "W" doesn't get back in office.

latenlazy said:

Watch, the US defaults, and long term investments in China sink, interest rates go up, and aggregate income falls. That would be ugly.

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Long term US gonna be fine. default or not.
it will put its house in order, hopefully.
China should still focus on its internal issues.

OT.

US can easily put it's house in order,only thing is it will take political will and there is no evidence of any of that currently.Winston Churchill said something like " Americans will do the right thing,only when all the alternatives have been exhausted."