J-20... The New Generation Fighter III
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while not impossible, it is improbable we are looking at 2002 with changed nose. as far as i know, usual procedure, seen with pretty much all other development programmes uses the first two or so airframes for basic flight testing only. there are no plans to put radar on them, ever. and thus the nose structure is different, even if outside design is the same. those planes never carried radar, until their retirement. so while it is possible to cut the nose section and restructure it so a radome can be placed there, i don't know if such a move was ever done for any similar fighter programme.
Assuming we are looking at the third prototype, let us compare it with other programmes:
j20
first airframe first flew: january 2011
second: may 2012
third: november-december 2012 ???
IF the third one does fly in the next month or two, which seems quite possible, we will be looking at second airframe flying 16 months after first and third airframe flying 22-23 months after first one.
pak fa
first airframe: 19 january 2010
second: 3 march 2011
third: 22 november 2011
pak fa programme had second airframe fly 13-14 months after first and third one 22 months after first one.
f22
first flying prototype first flew: september 7, 1997
second flying proto flew: june 29, 1998
third flying proto flew: march 6, 2000
fourth flying proto flew: november 15, 2000
fifth flying proto flew: january 5, 2001
sixth proto flew: february 5, 2001
seventh proto flew: october 15, 2001
serial standard planes first flew in second half of 2002.
f22 programme had second airframe fly 9-10 months after first one. third airframe flew 31 months after first one.
f35
first flying proto: december 15, 2006
second flew: june 11, 2008
third: february 25, 2009
fourth: november 14, 2009
fifth: february 2, 2010
sixth: feb 7, 2010
seventh: april 20, 2010
f35 programme had second airframe fly 18 months after first. third one flew 26 months after first one.
typhoon
first flew: 27 march 1994
second: 6 april 1994
third: 4 june 1995
fourth: 31 august 1996
fifth: 27 january 1997
sisxth: 24 februrary 1997
sevent: 14 march 1997
april 2002: three IPA planes flew
februrary 2003: first production plane flew
typhoon programme had two "first prototypes". Third airframe flew 15 months after them. The following one flew 28 months after the first one.
j20 seems to be on track quite nicely. we should see the next prototype in the air sometime in the summer of 2012, possibly early autumn. After that we might see next few remaining prototypes fly shortly one after another, perhaps all of them during winter/april of 2013. Then the big question is how will the prototype quality transfer into production line examples. best case scenario might be that early 2014 is when first preproduction batch will start. Realistically though, that is the period when a good deal of problems might arise. So instead of preproduction batch ending in early 2015, we might see it being protracted to sometime in 2016. That, however, is still well inside the projected service entry window as first production batch, even if started in late 2016., should be enough so large scale training is done during 2017. and most of 2018. and first squadron enters service before the end of 2018. Eight years total, with one year being there because of unforeseen consequences. Without it, even a 2017. entry into service is possible.
then again, we might see a f35 or typhoon kind of schedule - where all bets are off.
Assuming we are looking at the third prototype, let us compare it with other programmes:
j20
first airframe first flew: january 2011
second: may 2012
third: november-december 2012 ???
IF the third one does fly in the next month or two, which seems quite possible, we will be looking at second airframe flying 16 months after first and third airframe flying 22-23 months after first one.
pak fa
first airframe: 19 january 2010
second: 3 march 2011
third: 22 november 2011
pak fa programme had second airframe fly 13-14 months after first and third one 22 months after first one.
f22
first flying prototype first flew: september 7, 1997
second flying proto flew: june 29, 1998
third flying proto flew: march 6, 2000
fourth flying proto flew: november 15, 2000
fifth flying proto flew: january 5, 2001
sixth proto flew: february 5, 2001
seventh proto flew: october 15, 2001
serial standard planes first flew in second half of 2002.
f22 programme had second airframe fly 9-10 months after first one. third airframe flew 31 months after first one.
f35
first flying proto: december 15, 2006
second flew: june 11, 2008
third: february 25, 2009
fourth: november 14, 2009
fifth: february 2, 2010
sixth: feb 7, 2010
seventh: april 20, 2010
f35 programme had second airframe fly 18 months after first. third one flew 26 months after first one.
typhoon
first flew: 27 march 1994
second: 6 april 1994
third: 4 june 1995
fourth: 31 august 1996
fifth: 27 january 1997
sisxth: 24 februrary 1997
sevent: 14 march 1997
april 2002: three IPA planes flew
februrary 2003: first production plane flew
typhoon programme had two "first prototypes". Third airframe flew 15 months after them. The following one flew 28 months after the first one.
j20 seems to be on track quite nicely. we should see the next prototype in the air sometime in the summer of 2012, possibly early autumn. After that we might see next few remaining prototypes fly shortly one after another, perhaps all of them during winter/april of 2013. Then the big question is how will the prototype quality transfer into production line examples. best case scenario might be that early 2014 is when first preproduction batch will start. Realistically though, that is the period when a good deal of problems might arise. So instead of preproduction batch ending in early 2015, we might see it being protracted to sometime in 2016. That, however, is still well inside the projected service entry window as first production batch, even if started in late 2016., should be enough so large scale training is done during 2017. and most of 2018. and first squadron enters service before the end of 2018. Eight years total, with one year being there because of unforeseen consequences. Without it, even a 2017. entry into service is possible.
then again, we might see a f35 or typhoon kind of schedule - where all bets are off.
I think we might have to add another prototype or two for testing a new engine in that timeline, especially if it has TVC. It's possible that they test the air frame with a new engine in parallel with all the other tests, but more problems could arise out of that as well.while not impossible, it is improbable we are looking at 2002 with changed nose. as far as i know, usual procedure, seen with pretty much all other development programmes uses the first two or so airframes for basic flight testing only. there are no plans to put radar on them, ever. and thus the nose structure is different, even if outside design is the same. those planes never carried radar, until their retirement. so while it is possible to cut the nose section and restructure it so a radome can be placed there, i don't know if such a move was ever done for any similar fighter programme.
Assuming we are looking at the third prototype, let us compare it with other programmes:
j20
first airframe first flew: january 2011
second: may 2012
third: november-december 2012 ???
IF the third one does fly in the next month or two, which seems quite possible, we will be looking at second airframe flying 16 months after first and third airframe flying 22-23 months after first one.
pak fa
first airframe: 19 january 2010
second: 3 march 2011
third: 22 november 2011
pak fa programme had second airframe fly 13-14 months after first and third one 22 months after first one.
f22
first flying prototype first flew: september 7, 1997
second flying proto flew: june 29, 1998
third flying proto flew: march 6, 2000
fourth flying proto flew: november 15, 2000
fifth flying proto flew: january 5, 2001
sixth proto flew: february 5, 2001
seventh proto flew: october 15, 2001
serial standard planes first flew in second half of 2002.
f22 programme had second airframe fly 9-10 months after first one. third airframe flew 31 months after first one.
f35
first flying proto: december 15, 2006
second flew: june 11, 2008
third: february 25, 2009
fourth: november 14, 2009
fifth: february 2, 2010
sixth: feb 7, 2010
seventh: april 20, 2010
f35 programme had second airframe fly 18 months after first. third one flew 26 months after first one.
typhoon
first flew: 27 march 1994
second: 6 april 1994
third: 4 june 1995
fourth: 31 august 1996
fifth: 27 january 1997
sisxth: 24 februrary 1997
sevent: 14 march 1997
april 2002: three IPA planes flew
februrary 2003: first production plane flew
typhoon programme had two "first prototypes". Third airframe flew 15 months after them. The following one flew 28 months after the first one.
j20 seems to be on track quite nicely. we should see the next prototype in the air sometime in the summer of 2012, possibly early autumn. After that we might see next few remaining prototypes fly shortly one after another, perhaps all of them during winter/april of 2013. Then the big question is how will the prototype quality transfer into production line examples. best case scenario might be that early 2014 is when first preproduction batch will start. Realistically though, that is the period when a good deal of problems might arise. So instead of preproduction batch ending in early 2015, we might see it being protracted to sometime in 2016. That, however, is still well inside the projected service entry window as first production batch, even if started in late 2016., should be enough so large scale training is done during 2017. and most of 2018. and first squadron enters service before the end of 2018. Eight years total, with one year being there because of unforeseen consequences. Without it, even a 2017. entry into service is possible.
then again, we might see a f35 or typhoon kind of schedule - where all bets are off.
Aren't CAC's XXX3 prototypes both usually their second flying prototype but also carrying mission avionics (radar etc)? I think that is how it was with J-10B at least.
(I mean it's not impossible for CAC to have designed 2002 to make initial flight tests while the mission avionics were being touched up, and designed the prototype from the ground up to be easily reconfigurable.)
But I agree I think this plane is most likely the third prototype, the time is about right for it. And there are some physical differences on the nose as pointed out, and not just the radome, which indicate to that.
I would expect them to have a similar number of total prototypes compared with if WS-15 was ready from the get go. I imagine most of the flight and separation testing and almost all the avionics testing can be done with non WS-15 equipped prototypes, while prototypes with WS-15 will be used to test the planes upper designed kinematic thresholds namely in regard to TVC and super cruise.
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Part of testing with the new engine will also be to test the engine itself though, since they will need to see how the engine performs at all flight envelopes.
Quickie
Colonel
It's quite possible the prototype we're seeing being prepared for further testing is the prototype 2002 simply because we've not seen a third prototype, presumably the 2003, doing basic flight testing. You would want to make sure any new prototype to be in good flying condition before deciding to use it as a base for the testing of new avionics and equipments.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
The whole point of standardised design and manufacturing and simulated weight distribution in prototypes is to simulate and test how the airframe would perform with full mission equipment installed.
You would need to do all sorts of initial tests on a new aircraft (both prototype Nd production), but they are supposed to test that everything has been built to standard, and should not take more than a few flights.
It is perfectly fine to install the full mission radar and avionics because the impact their weight would have on the plane should have been taken into account with weights from the start.
The only time you need to reperform test flights with the airframe is if you are putting in a new radar or avionics that would materially change the weight distribution in the plane.
But no matter if this bird is prototype 2002 or 2003, the idea of production aircraft by 2014 is hopelessly optimistic.
I expect at least 2 years of test flights with between 3-5 prototypes before they are ready for pre-production aircraft. If they decide to make changes based on the test flight data, that could easily add 1-5 years to the while process depending in how big the changes are.
Now, since the J20 has been a far more developed aircraft than the US X-planes when they first flew, I would not expect it to take as long as it took for the likes of the F22 or F35 to go from first flight to production, but 2014 is far too soon.
You would need to do all sorts of initial tests on a new aircraft (both prototype Nd production), but they are supposed to test that everything has been built to standard, and should not take more than a few flights.
It is perfectly fine to install the full mission radar and avionics because the impact their weight would have on the plane should have been taken into account with weights from the start.
The only time you need to reperform test flights with the airframe is if you are putting in a new radar or avionics that would materially change the weight distribution in the plane.
But no matter if this bird is prototype 2002 or 2003, the idea of production aircraft by 2014 is hopelessly optimistic.
I expect at least 2 years of test flights with between 3-5 prototypes before they are ready for pre-production aircraft. If they decide to make changes based on the test flight data, that could easily add 1-5 years to the while process depending in how big the changes are.
Now, since the J20 has been a far more developed aircraft than the US X-planes when they first flew, I would not expect it to take as long as it took for the likes of the F22 or F35 to go from first flight to production, but 2014 is far too soon.
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