J-20... The New Generation Fighter III

Totoro · Oct 22, 2012

whoa, i really wrote 2014 there. Must have been on drugs, no way production standard airframes can start before all prototypes flew. Let me try again. If third one flies by the end of this year, fourth one might fly sometime in summer 2013. Then all the rest of the prototypes might fly by the end of 2014. So sometime in 2015, IF all goes perfectly well, first preproduction plane may fly. But realistically, things never go perfectly so we might be looking at 2016. Then, depending how the factory does with that first serial test batch, real serial production may start in 2017 or 2018. Symbolic service entry in 2018 or 2019.

And on top of all that, if new engines will have to be tested and integrated before operational capability, we might be looking at a year or two (or more, one never knows with engines) on top of all this. Meaning 2020 or so. Which is why i believe it is possible we will see first few regiments of j20 with one set of engines, during which time the new engine will be redied and planes tested with it, and then we will see j20a with proper, final engines getting into service in mid 2020s. I am not saying that is probable course of events, just a possible one.

Player99 · Oct 22, 2012

Totoro said:
And on top of all that, if new engines will have to be tested and integrated before operational capability, we might be looking at a year or two (or more, one never knows with engines) on top of all this. Meaning 2020 or so. Which is why i believe it is possible we will see first few regiments of j20 with one set of engines, during which time the new engine will be redied and planes tested with it, and then we will see j20a with proper, final engines getting into service in mid 2020s. I am not saying that is probable course of events, just a possible one.

Speaking of new engines, I'm reminded of what a big shrimp said a couple of days ago: "2003 is out now... 2004 will come out next year, with modified rear section to accomodate the new engines..."

So what we see lately is indeed the 2003 and the 2004 will have a pair of new engines. Could those not be WS-15? I doubt they would be willing to go through that much trouble only to install yet another type of interim engines instead of the final ones by design.

P.S. I just double checked what the big shrimp said.

airsuperiority · Oct 22, 2012

Player99 said:
Speaking of new engines, I'm reminded of what a big shrimp said a couple of days ago: "2003 is out now... 2004 will come out next year, with modified rear section to accomodate the new engines..."

So what we see lately is indeed the 2003 and the 2004 will have a pair of new engines. Could those not be WS-15? I doubt they would be willing to go through that much trouble only to install yet another type of interim engines instead of the final ones by design.

P.S. I just double checked what the big shrimp said.

So who said it? Can you link it? I want to read it myself too. I'm so inclined to see the 2004 more than 2003 because I want to see those TVC (and I hope they are)

airsuperiority · Oct 22, 2012

Totoro said:
whoa, i really wrote 2014 there. Must have been on drugs, no way production standard airframes can start before all prototypes flew. Let me try again. If third one flies by the end of this year, fourth one might fly sometime in summer 2013. Then all the rest of the prototypes might fly by the end of 2014. So sometime in 2015, IF all goes perfectly well, first preproduction plane may fly. But realistically, things never go perfectly so we might be looking at 2016. Then, depending how the factory does with that first serial test batch, real serial production may start in 2017 or 2018. Symbolic service entry in 2018 or 2019.

And on top of all that, if new engines will have to be tested and integrated before operational capability, we might be looking at a year or two (or more, one never knows with engines) on top of all this. Meaning 2020 or so. Which is why i believe it is possible we will see first few regiments of j20 with one set of engines, during which time the new engine will be redied and planes tested with it, and then we will see j20a with proper, final engines getting into service in mid 2020s. I am not saying that is probable course of events, just a possible one.

I like your moderate speculation and I quite agree this is a likely path.

Player99 · Oct 22, 2012

airsuperiority said:
So who said it? Can you link it? I want to read it myself too. I'm so inclined to see the 2004 more than 2003 because I want to see those TVC (and I hope they are)

Here's the original discussion:

10。20老马夜聊
老马：2003已经出场，明年2004修形，换发还要上点其他干货
麦迪文的救赎：04有何改进？
老马：呵呵，为了适应发动机的更换下半身要做小幅的修形
大运首飞正式进入倒计时，几次延后终于要出嫁了
2012年首飞是领导定的任务，如果没有先期的预研今年就是把西飞人累死也飞不了
我们可能还要引进一批二手的76以解应急之需

Obviously, these people have a QQ group and this guy talks to the group regularly these things. Some people copy and paste these sessions on one or two forums... The above was from the Oct. 20th session.

Quickie · Oct 22, 2012

plawolf said:
The whole point of standardised design and manufacturing and simulated weight distribution in prototypes is to simulate and test how the airframe would perform with full mission equipment installed.

This should be what they've been doing with the 2001 and 2002.

You would need to do all sorts of initial tests on a new aircraft (both prototype Nd production), but they are supposed to test that everything has been built to standard, and should not take more than a few flights.

That's what I meant. A number of initial flights to make sure the prototype is in good flying condition. This is also taking into consideration the prototype equipment to be tested is itself expensive and would take some time to rebuild if lost and this would affect the overall shedule.

But that's just my personal opinion, we'll see whether if the J-20 designers would rather test everything in one go or otherwise.

Blitzo · Oct 22, 2012

Player99 said:
Here's the original discussion:

10。20老马夜聊
老马：2003已经出场，明年2004修形，换发还要上点其他干货
麦迪文的救赎：04有何改进？
老马：呵呵，为了适应发动机的更换下半身要做小幅的修形
大运首飞正式进入倒计时，几次延后终于要出嫁了
2012年首飞是领导定的任务，如果没有先期的预研今年就是把西飞人累死也飞不了
我们可能还要引进一批二手的76以解应急之需

Obviously, these people have a QQ group and this guy talks to the group regularly these things. Some people copy and paste these sessions on one or two forums... The above was from the Oct. 20th session.

If a following prototype is equipped with a new engine I'd expect it to be WS-15, unless there have been massive delays on the project or something requiring an interim engine for both the final prototypes and perhaps preproduction and first batch of aircraft.

mack8 · Oct 22, 2012

Well, perhaps these prototypes are indeed equipped with a russian-sourced engine, if 2004 is suposed to have new engines (WS-15?). Wouldn't be the first programme to have resorted to this solution, get (most of) the airframe and avionics testing done with interim engines fitted, to speed things up. PLAAF needs J-20 yesterday.

Blitzo · Oct 22, 2012

mack8 said:
Well, perhaps these prototypes are indeed equipped with a russian-sourced engine, if 2004 is suposed to have new engines (WS-15?). Wouldn't be the first programme to have resorted to this solution, get (most of) the airframe and avionics testing done with interim engines fitted, to speed things up. PLAAF needs J-20 yesterday.

Well 2001-2002/3 are definitely not equipped with WS-15. If the next engine aboard 2004 is another interim engine I would expect it to be higher performing than whatever engine (al-31 or WS-10 or whatever) aboard 2201-2002/3 now.
If the new engine is an interim engine, it would suggest that it's not Russian (if china really wanted al41 or 117s I expect they would have had it by now, or at least the order would have been announced).

But tbh the logical belief given those supposed big shrimp statements would be to believe 2004's engines (if new), are WS-15.
But I remember rumours a year or so back about how 2003 was meant to feature WS-15 as well... So who knows.

mack8 · Oct 22, 2012

Don't think they'll go to the trouble of changing the engine 3 times ( doesn't make sense anyway). My guess is 2004 will have the definitive engines, while 2001/2/3 have the interim engines (sort of like the Typhoon flying with RB-199 first , or T-10 with AL-21 etc.)

J-20... The New Generation Fighter III

Totoro

Major

Player99

Junior Member

airsuperiority

Captain

airsuperiority

Captain

Player99

Junior Member

Quickie

Colonel

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

mack8

Junior Member

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

mack8

Junior Member