J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
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I have a hunch he may've simply used the rough estimate of the number of produced J-20s at the end of 2019 and added the number of 30 J20s produced in 2020, as stated by that rumor some days/weeks ago.
I would be surprised if 30 J-20s were actually produced this year however, given the impact of the pandemic has to be accounted for.
I think this entire discussion would be more useful if everyone could first agree on how many J-20s they believed there to exist in service in late 2019...
True, based on what we have at the moment, by the end of 2019, we could confirm a minimal 24 J-20s in service, and in CAC field, the rests are all open for speculation. We don't know beside of 3rd squadron, any other unit in 9th brigade got J-20 by then? We don't know if Dingxin or Cangzhou has more J-20 not shown? Unless we have something more, the following discussion is meaningless.
What I keep repeated was don't simply quote people like "PUPU" and took his work as the absolute truth. Even Minnie Chen did more honest jobs than him by developing her argument based on whatever random sources provided her. This guy just simply said a number and then some people without thinking just choose to believe him, and now he changed his word by adding an extra condition to the end of this year, I wonder how his believers could simply convince themself to switch their beliefs so quickly. Just like prophecy, a charlatan could always make it fulfilled by keep adding stuff to it.
Anyway, words from him, or anyone who refused to provide further details should at least be through some basic logical examination to verify if the words make sense or no, just like how people should verify reference on their thesis. Since SDF self-advertised as a non-fanboy forum, I expect this should be a minimum standard to follow.
There's a bit to unpack in your post here that I have to take a moment just to categorize it:
Problem 1: you believe that the number of aircraft is represented by the number of photographed serials. But it is basically agreed that the number of photographed serials of any type of new PLA aircraft that is "confirmed" at any one time only represents a fraction of actual true aircraft. If you are suggesting that the number of J-20s that we have photographic confirmation of based on serials was the actual true number then I think that is a massive issue of contention.
Problem 2: the value of "insiders" and individuals whose words we hold in high regard. These people either have demonstrated they have exclusive knowledge of some sort or they have established track records in predictions (or both). The reason we take these people's words seriously and the reason why put their statements through a logical examination is exactly because the system has been demonstrated to work. In the case of Pupu's specific claim, the idea of 60 J-20s by the end of 2020 easily passes the smell test.
Problem 3: the gall to suggest that merely listing "sources" is enough to put Minnie Chan's aberrations of articles anywhere near the same level of rigor and efficacy that the PLA watching method has been demonstrated to have. Frankly I find this assertion of yours to be even more problematic than the other to.
You are right, SDF is not a fanboy forum, which is exactly why the methods we have established is taken so seriously.
I think there is one insider who claimed that two seater variant of J-20 is under development. But Minnie Chan article is bad as always.
No, I do no think the photograph represents the exact number, and I agree with you, it represents a minimal. But like I repeatedly told you, you need to have a reason to support your speculation on there is more. I never claim what I said is absolutely correct, I'm merely logical argument as a statement based on the normal tendency of aircraft production, and how PLAAF used to dispatch their Su-27, J-11B, J-10, Su-30MKK, Su-35, and etc..before. But instead, you keep refusing to answer directly but remain on how I believe the photographed number blah blah.
What I said before was at the point when CCTV announced the 1st squadron in the 9th brigade, the number of total J-20 could be fairly close to the photographed number, then you keep suggesting there must be at least 8-16 J-20 hidden at Dingxin or Cangzhou without presenting any evidence, seriously when did PLAAF dispatch more than 3 full squadrons to base once? and we knew Cangzhou already has a J-20, J-16 and J-10C squadron there, tell me for what reason could support your guessing work, instead of "oh I know there must be more".
I know how Chinese works and I know what insider is, I followed a lot of should we say "insider/leaker/wall climber" on Weibo and Wechat.
But as I keep repeating myself, should PUPU could still be considered as a reliable source is debatable. For me the answer is no for at least 5 years, if you keep your eyes tracking on these people, you know what I mean.
He got his name ruined by saying a lot of nonsense like this several years ago, and then be quiet in his little circle for a pretty long time, but since sometime last year he came out again on Weibo and his fans just keep quotes his trash pretty much everywhere. And based on what he said these days, we should call him more an "outside observer" than "insiders".
Seriously, most people who closely watching J-20 could get a loose estimation on J-20 number from around ~50 something to around~60 something by the end of this year, so why we need him to be thew witch?
And also, I can't believe you are going to keep defend his words changing from current PLAAF has 60 J-20 to by the end of this year. Just out of curiosity, please answer me this: are you going to change your 60 J-20 is possible by now statement to the end of this year too?
I'm not going to defend Minnie Chan, I'm just merely comparing PUPU's word and his blind believer to her. I never said "inside source" is useless in Chinese military subjects. Instead, sorry to say this, I think you got too personally into defending PUPU yourself. If you could read Chinese, just go to his Weibo account, or go to forums like cjdby, search his name for his quote or speech in the last few years, you know how much his style was changing from the time when he uses to be creditable, and how ambiguous his words from other creditable "insider" now.
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Just want to add on to this, military orbat in the division/brigade level or under are technically classified, but honorable titles are not. Honorable titles also can only go up to regiment level (and most ex-regiments with honorable titles are in the army), so when chinese media say something like 先锋飞行大队, even though its talking about squadron level we know right away its 1st brigade and 强军先锋飞行大队 would be 89th, etc. The reporters are not allowed to report the brigade orbat, but can let everyone know exactly who he is talking about by using the honorable title.
Dadui is believed to have 8-10 aircraft by American parlance. Two 大队 imply 16-20 units.
The production line output is purportedly 1/month per production line.
If there's 1 production line since 2018, then we should have at least 24 planes up. With another production line in service, 36/48 is viable. 30 this year implies 2-3 production lines, so 60 J-20s isn't completely impossible, especilaly if you include LRIP units.
60 implies that in 2018 and 2019, 24 J-20s were built, and in 2017, 12 J-20s were built. Seems to correlate to other rumors.
In addition, the two seat J-20 report from Minnie Chan seems to corroborate other J-20 claims of it being developed into a family of aircraft. Minnie isn't to be taken as credible on her own, but it's corroborated.
If there's 1 production line since 2018, then we should have at least 24 planes up. With another production line in service, 36/48 is viable. 30 this year implies 2-3 production lines, so 60 J-20s isn't completely impossible, especilaly if you include LRIP units.
60 implies that in 2018 and 2019, 24 J-20s were built, and in 2017, 12 J-20s were built. Seems to correlate to other rumors.
In addition, the two seat J-20 report from Minnie Chan seems to corroborate other J-20 claims of it being developed into a family of aircraft. Minnie isn't to be taken as credible on her own, but it's corroborated.
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