J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
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I'm not sure what else to say, because the entire crux of my position is that I think it would be an overwhelmingly unlikely situation whereby the PLA allowed us to have access to photographs of all of the serials of a new and strategically important aircraft type at a given base.
If it comes down to a question of burden of proof, do you think it is more reasonable that the idea that we need "proof" to suggest there are more actual J-20s at a given base than actually photographed at this point in time, or that we need "proof" to believe that the number of J-20s we have on photograph is equal to the number of actual J-20s at a given base?
Frankly, if you agree that the number of J-20s photographed represents a minimal then I'm not sure why you are even in disagreement with me on this point.
I already did.
60 J-20s by now seemed unlikely but possible to me -- 60 J-20s by year end seems more reasonable to me.
I have no personal investment into Pupu's words himself, but it's a question of how reasonable his or anyone else's claims are.
Fundamentally, the reason I have no opposition to his claims surrounding 60 J-20s (whether it's at this point or by the end of the year) is that I don't think it is illogical or beyond the pale.
If the bar of being an insider means you don't need to be either accurate or provide any insights or be "predictive", all you need to be is just loosely close, then what gives him more credibility in his worlds than any other person who closely follows Chinese military subjects, in this case, J-20. More Fanboys defending you???
Let's assume CAC could reach 3 J-20 per month, then from now to the end of the year: 4x3 =12, which means 1/4~1/5 of total differences! That's not even an error could cover. As I said, it's easy to guess the number 60 by the end of this year, but to predict, in "PUPU"'s words "it must be at least 60" by NOW, is certainly courageous. That's a 20-25% error!
Honest speaking, people like you and me changed our words in a matter like this completely fine, as neither of us is regarding as a "credible source", so our words are open for discussion. But people like PUPU, out of what reason, decided to change his words after people start to question that number and challenge his statement. His fanboy still defends him and smear other people's credibility by saying things like:
Seriously? creditable source? like this?
If we still think SDF is a non-boy site than at least let's discuss rationally here. Whether a word is credible should definitely not be judged only by his name. Especially from a certain name that has already be ruined for like 10 years!
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I think you are partially right, from what I learned in a fighter troop:
A "zhongdui"(中队) consists of 4 fighter jets √
a "dadui" (大队) consist of at least 3 zhongdui's ×/√
I think it's different for PLANAF and PLAAF after the military reformation these years, currently:
A PLANAF 大队 consists of 3 full 中队, but
A PLAAF 大队 consists of only 2 full 中队 and some for 3rd fighters and above (J-10, all flankers, J-20). For brigades still equip with J-7 and J-8, a 大队 still consists of 3 full 中队.
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A question regarding the J-20, how good is the software part of J-20? Western media always tout how F-35 has sensor fusion and communication with other planes in the battlefield to have a combined picture of the situation, or even AI capabilities. They often assume J-20 lacks these and thus its inferior to F-35 and will be hopelessly destroyed.
But these capabilities are purely software and China is more than capable when it comes to software development. As far as I know, J-20 has the DAS and other electro-optical sensors that F-35 has. So, there is no gap in hardware. What J-20 has could be less precise but in terms of fundamental nature of these sensors, J-20 has them.
So, if J-20 has the hardware, developing the software for sensor fusion and communication based situational awareness should not be difficult. Since J-20 was developed 10 years after F-35 I see no reason why J-20 will be lacking these.
What do you guys say based on your knowledge? Does J-20 has these capabilities as I am assuming? Or is the western media correct?
But these capabilities are purely software and China is more than capable when it comes to software development. As far as I know, J-20 has the DAS and other electro-optical sensors that F-35 has. So, there is no gap in hardware. What J-20 has could be less precise but in terms of fundamental nature of these sensors, J-20 has them.
So, if J-20 has the hardware, developing the software for sensor fusion and communication based situational awareness should not be difficult. Since J-20 was developed 10 years after F-35 I see no reason why J-20 will be lacking these.
What do you guys say based on your knowledge? Does J-20 has these capabilities as I am assuming? Or is the western media correct?
Western media say the F-35 is better. That is their own opinion.
I think there is no exact answer to this unless both countries publish the avionics and source code details. That will never happen. So all claims that "the j-20's software system is better or worse than the F-35" is just sentimental. Of course, most Westerners would believe that "the F-35 is better than the J-20" and they will try to negate someone's answer. "The J-20's software system is equal or better than the F- 35 "
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^We really gotta get away from comparing platforms and start comparing systems (and logistics). Personally, I think the F-35 and the surrounding USAF support systems make a formidable combination in the Americans' arsenal.
For their part, China is also improving their sensor, communication and recon networks. The J-20 will mesh with all of those.
I have no doubt the Chinese air force is developing into a very credible force.
At the end of the day, it is foolish to dismiss any opponent/rival.
That being said, a platform vs platform comparison is meaningless because these fighters will be operating as part of an entire ecosystem.
For their part, China is also improving their sensor, communication and recon networks. The J-20 will mesh with all of those.
I have no doubt the Chinese air force is developing into a very credible force.
At the end of the day, it is foolish to dismiss any opponent/rival.
That being said, a platform vs platform comparison is meaningless because these fighters will be operating as part of an entire ecosystem.
The ironic thing about it is that they'll repeat that claim about how awesome the F-35 due to Sensor Fusion, AI, etc. then a few articles later, they will talk about how the same awesome software has issues to the point the plane couldn't aim and fire its gun properly, drop bombs or whathaveyou.
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