J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

stannislas said:

If the bar of being an insider means you don't need to be either accurate or provide any insights or be "predictive", all you need to be is just loosely close, then what gives him more credibility in his worlds than any other person who closely follows Chinese military subjects, in this case, J-20. More Fanboys defending you???

Let's assume CAC could reach 3 J-20 per month, then from now to the end of the year: 4x3 =12, which means 1/4~1/5 of total differences! That's not even an error could cover. As I said, it's easy to guess the number 60 by the end of this year, but to predict, in "PUPU"'s words "it must be at least 60" by NOW, is certainly courageous. That's a 20-25% error!

Honest speaking, people like you and me changed our words in a matter like this completely fine, as neither of us is regarding as a "credible source", so our words are open for discussion. But people like PUPU, out of what reason, decided to change his words after people start to question that number and challenge his statement. His fanboy still defends him and smear other people's credibility by saying things like:

Seriously? creditable source? like this?

If we still think SDF is a non-boy site than at least let's discuss rationally here. Whether a word is credible should definitely not be judged only by his name. Especially from a certain name that has already be ruined for like 10 years!

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If you wanted to criticize the credibility of Pupu specifically, that is fine.

However, writing things like, this below, was far below the level of serious criticism that we would expect here as well including for if you wanted to criticize Pupu's credibility:

stannislas said:

he is wrong 99% of the time, a great part of his word is simply fanboy languages, again rumor suggested he is just working for a SAC subcontractor.

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So don't be surprised if people reacted poorly to you given your own posts itself have hardly been convincing, because the phrasing of your criticisms and frankly some of the logic of your arguments are no better than the fanboys you claim of.



As for the degree of "error" we are willing to tolerate -- yes, there is always going to be error and the concreteness of numbers and dates especially is always going to have a degree of fluidity.

But there is a difference between your position where you are essentially arguing that "his numbers and statements are rubbish and we shouldn't bother listening to him about anything" versus "let's keep this number in mind, it can be potentially close and the fact that it's come from someone who has has a respected reputation means it is something we should keep an eye on".

zbb said:

I thought PLAAF 大队 usually consists of ~24 planes and 中队 was made up of ~8 planes?

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Check brigadization trend in the PLAAF..


It's possible that the units to which the PLA has assigned units to are pre-brigadization, hence more units.

As far as J-20 software integration goes, for the J-20, EODAS and sensor fusion isn't as vital a capability as it is for the F-35, which is almost entirely reliant on its sensors and stealth for combat capability. Against an opponent with EODAS or EO sensors, the J-20 can fully exploit its speed, and against an opponent with EODAS / EO, the J-20 can use its speed to get out of battle as necessary.

As for force counts, Scramble.nl indicates about 4 PLAAF brigades equipped with J-20 alongside equivalent for Dingxin testing and training (assume 4). That'd put a pure minimum of 20 J-20s, if all J-20 units have only 4 J-20 units, and a minimum of 36 J-20s if all PLAAF regiments are expected to be fully equipped at the 8 level. 4*12=48+12 at Dingxin would match the pupu claim, however.

Bltizo said:

If you wanted to criticize the credibility of Pupu specifically, that is fine.

However, writing things like, this below, was far below the level of serious criticism that we would expect here as well including for if you wanted to criticize Pupu's credibility:



So don't be surprised if people reacted poorly to you given your own posts itself have hardly been convincing, because the phrasing of your criticisms and frankly some of the logic of your arguments are no better than the fanboys you claim of.

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Funny, so instead of arguing against on which part I was wrong, you decided to criticize my expression and "Fanboyness", over what? I didn't hyper on the number of J-20? Okay... how mature...
Anyway, you got me there, please continue on, I'm not going to do an elementary school arguing with you.

Bltizo said:

As for the degree of "error" we are willing to tolerate -- yes, there is always going to be error and the concreteness of numbers and dates especially is always going to have a degree of fluidity.

But there is a difference between your position where you are essentially arguing that "his numbers and statements are rubbish and we shouldn't bother listening to him about anything" versus "let's keep this number in mind, it can be potentially close and the fact that it's come from someone who has has a respected reputation means it is something we should keep an eye on".

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My logic here is simple, if you quote a "credit source" then don't make mistakes like these, especially you and your source should not quibble and deny the mistake when people question it. At least 20-25% is not a "potentially close"
Tell you what, this is exactly one of the reasons why PUPU's name got ruined a few years ago, playing the word, sticking irrelevant details on "degree of error to tolerate", attacking people who questioned.

There is no such thing as "his words is rubbish" and "respected reputation" could hold together, a "respected reputation" doesn't simply just dump "rubbish" that ruin his "reputation". And the reason why we think certain people as a more reliable source and hold more credibility than the rest of us is that he doesn't just simply spite out rubbish! On the other hand, if a source is constantly producing "rubbish", then just treat him as a regular joe, don't praise it and take it as a reliable reference.

Rubbish is rubbish, no matter where it from. If a word is rubbish then we should not believe it regardless of who it from.

Breadbox said:

It's in Hotan, southern Xinjiang, near Kashmir. Also, the last place where prototypes get deployed is frontline airbases.

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Hotan? I'd really question the operation readiness of the J-20 in that area given the frequent sand storms.

siegecrossbow said:

Considering that even top military officials in India believe that Rafales are more than a match for the J-20 I doubt that this would work.

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Just because they say that Rafael is a match doesn't mean that it won't affect them.

If Russia say that they can match F22 they probably still will behave differently depending on if F22 or F15/F16 that is deployed.

byhyew said:

Hotan? I'd really question the operation readiness of the J-20 in that area given the frequent sand storms.

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The sand storm reported widely on Internet dated 30th June 2020 is a freak storm. They happened only once in many years, certainly far far less than normal bad weather. It is a low altitude phenomenon that aircraft can easily avoid by flying high.

It does not affect "operation readiness" of J20 in Hotan, except the day of its occurrence, which is rare.

siegecrossbow said:

Considering that even top military officials in India believe that Rafales are more than a match for the J-20 I doubt that this would work.

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A very good joke.

siegecrossbow said:

Hangers won’t prevent military satellites from spotting the aircraft so what’s the point?

That said, expect flurry of Indian reports about Rafale spotting the J-20 in the not so distant future.

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Do you mean satellite can see through the metal roof of the hanger? Even more, not only see through, but also clear enough to identify the type of aircraft? By what tech?

Breadbox said:

I hope this is a wakeup call for the construction of hangers for the PLA, seriously, live military reconnaissance from on social media/forums.

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There must be hangers, without hangers where would any aircraft be stored? It is apperantly a deliberate show of force to someone. Besides, orbital parameters of all reconnaissance satellites are known, if they want to hide J-20 they would have choose a better time to land and taxi into the hanger right away, instead of standing side by side on the tarmac.