J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
- Start date
- Status
I don't want to be one of those common Indian fanboys who always insist they're an insider and everyone should trust them because they've got anonymous inside sources but we should also keep in mind that there are no live cams of every angle at CAC. We shouldn't also assume CAC in Chengdu is the only facility building or assembling J-20s from components that are delivered without being recorded on camera.
One cannot say that since we haven't seen photographs from wall climbers showing 60 J-20s flying out of CAC, therefore there are fewer than 60 around. They may not all be assembled there. There are not that many wall climbers these days. Wall climbers don't capture every movement and every plane on the runways. Not all built planes have to make a feature appearance on CAC runways in Chengdu. Planes can take off and land during night time when it is more difficult to visibly identify and photograph them - we usually do not see any wall climber photos during nighttime. I'm not even talking about middle of the night when everyone's asleep because the noise pollution would be unacceptable but even just during peak hours and dinner time when most people are busy. There are many ways to fly 60 J-20s out of CAC (assumptions!) without people noticing. Lot's of components may be delivered less visibly to other sites for assembly. There are just way too much involved to so confidently simplify the count into serial counting and known information of where J-20s are known to be stationed.
It's akin to saying, since I know from USAF and fanboy observations and photos that there are 25 F-22s (let's say hypothetically) stationed in Okinawa, therefore there are no more than 22 F-22s stationed near China. I therefore would find it hard to believe there may be up to or more than 60 F-22s around China.
One cannot say that since we haven't seen photographs from wall climbers showing 60 J-20s flying out of CAC, therefore there are fewer than 60 around. They may not all be assembled there. There are not that many wall climbers these days. Wall climbers don't capture every movement and every plane on the runways. Not all built planes have to make a feature appearance on CAC runways in Chengdu. Planes can take off and land during night time when it is more difficult to visibly identify and photograph them - we usually do not see any wall climber photos during nighttime. I'm not even talking about middle of the night when everyone's asleep because the noise pollution would be unacceptable but even just during peak hours and dinner time when most people are busy. There are many ways to fly 60 J-20s out of CAC (assumptions!) without people noticing. Lot's of components may be delivered less visibly to other sites for assembly. There are just way too much involved to so confidently simplify the count into serial counting and known information of where J-20s are known to be stationed.
It's akin to saying, since I know from USAF and fanboy observations and photos that there are 25 F-22s (let's say hypothetically) stationed in Okinawa, therefore there are no more than 22 F-22s stationed near China. I therefore would find it hard to believe there may be up to or more than 60 F-22s around China.
Not even close. We don't even really know how much a J-10C or J-16 costs the PLAAF.
What do you think about 60 J20?
@Interstellar
Somewhere you said to dismiss the production numbers given by a source close to PLAAF (60 J16, 20 J15 and 30 J20)
@Interstellar
Somewhere you said to dismiss the production numbers given by a source close to PLAAF (60 J16, 20 J15 and 30 J20)
Because CCTV specifically said "王海大队", which is almost certain 8 jets, I can't tell how many j-20 they have now, but at that very moment, yes, only 8 or 9!
Also, what do you believe that Dingxin and Cangzhou are only 1/2 or 2/3 the true number? seriously, place yourself into a manager role, what's the point for an overly large "testing and training" section when you have only a very small total number, seriously what's the point?
40+ by 2019... J-20 start in service in 2017, let's say they produce first service version J-20 in sometime 2016, that's two and half-year, which is still higher than the initial production rate of F-35..... given how much J-10 and J-11 produced over the last decades, do you think that's even possible???
also, if you could still remember, when did we hear about the rumor that CAC builds an even bigger factory to expend productivity? mid-2018, I can't remember there is any news about its finish, but I won't expect any time sooner than sometime 2019, so I won't expect J-20 production rate increase before some time 2019.
I agree I don't expect ~20 is the number now, I'm just saying 20 should be a fair close estimation around mid-2019, what my estimation by the end of August 2020 should be somewhere around 40+:
20 (mid 2019) + 4 (at least Nov 2019) + 4 (at April 2020) + 3*4 = 40
That means even by the end of the year, I won't expect more than 60 J-20
At this moment, I won't expect J-20 production rate higher than 3 per month, it could go higher next year, but given the pandemic delay for about 4 months in China, and how much they produce J-10 and J-11 before and compare to the F-35 production rate, 3 per month is the expected full production rate by now.
That is a very big if, I don't think China has done that before, produce jet in another site. All CAC, SAC, and XAC had expanded their facility by a lot over the past 5 years, but none has the evidence suggested that there is a second hidden place to produce their aircraft.
Ok, let's stop here, you have gone into speculation at this point.
No, I'm saying because people don't say it then the planes were not there or couldn't fly away from CAC, what I'm saying is modern jet production requires a big factory, and you always need to park the plane outside sometime for final testing, it's difficult for me to imagine that you can mass-produce a plane somewhere as well as dodge the satellite completely. And comparing with the F-35 production rate at the initial production phase, it's unlikely. I very much hope CAC could beat Lockheed Martin in production J-20, just like the Chinese Shipbuilding industry these years, but right now, I need to proofs to support my confidence.
I don't think it is a valid argument to say there are only as many planes as have been photographed. How many F-22 have been photographed? About 2 dozen or so. So there are only 24 then?
The government puts down an order for a certain number of jets, once they're completed there will eventually be papers on how many there are in total, which will either immediately be released or declassified later.
We can only certainly establish a lowest possible number and estimate a highest possible number based on common sense. Or ideally not even speculate into highest possible number if there is no reliable way to do it.
The government puts down an order for a certain number of jets, once they're completed there will eventually be papers on how many there are in total, which will either immediately be released or declassified later.
We can only certainly establish a lowest possible number and estimate a highest possible number based on common sense. Or ideally not even speculate into highest possible number if there is no reliable way to do it.
We had the earliest picture of the first LRIP J-20 in late 2015 and Dingxin was operating its first J-20s before the end of 2016.
Between the end of 2015 and the end of 2019, producing 40 odd J-20s should have been well within their capacity, it is four years.
For what it's worth, I agree that CAC definitely has not produced 40 J-20s over the course of this year.
However what I am saying is that I think between the end of 2015 to the end of 2019 I think they've probably produced over 40 J-20s, with additional aircraft produced in the first half of this year to make the 60 plus that pupu states.
Ok, so the number differences we got are here, my estimation for Dingxin+Cangzhou+Wuhu = 4(8) + 8 + 8, in the mid of 2019, and additional 4 (let's add another 4 for even larger estimation) by the end of last year, which gives a total 24 - 32 this means a total 16 to 8 J-20s, entire 2 squadrons were not reported, sure, it's possible, China is a big country.
But what I don't understand is where. We know the first J-20 squadrons went to Wuhu 9th brigade, which used to be part of the 3rd division, one of the most elite troops in the PLAAF, and always one of the first to receive the new equipment. Another two are former 1st division at Anshan (not Fushun my mistake) and 2nd division at Zhanjiang. Because they are such high profile units. Many people in China believe the next unit will go to either one of these places and staring at their bases all the time, especially to Anshan. But until now, we got nothing, which means they didn't receive any J-20 yet. That means, those 1 or 2 squadrons, if there are, definitely at Dingxin or Cangzhou. But like I argued before, what's the point for doing so? So there are only 5 squadrons I have, instead of put 2 in testing and training and 3 for combat, I put 4 in testing and training and 1 in combat? I found it very difficult to imagine from a management point of view.
Also, even we took your hypophysis which is 40 J-20 by the end of 2019, that means CAC needs to produce about 20 by the first 8 months, roughly 2.5 per month, that's about the full rate F-35 have at the same initial production stage. And be aware there a global pandemic at the moment called COVID-19, I knew China did better than most of the world, but it still suffered a good 4 months lockdown from Jan to April, do you think it's even possible for CAC to maintain the same rate of J-20 productivity?
- Status