J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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Blitzo

Blitzo

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by78 said:
52496138490_cbbd481814_3k.jpg


52495180902_7e9f308f0c_3k.jpg
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@Deino
@tphuang
@latenlazy


We can see "CB0370" on the cover of the IFR probe in the first picture, and the base of the left all moving tail in the second picture.

Further confirming that "CB0370" is legit, and that they don't "mix and match" parts on the same aircraft. I.e. the CBabxy system is legit for tracking production
 
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by78

by78

General
Blitzo said:
@Deino
@tphuang
@latenlazy


We can see "CB0370" on the cover of the IFR probe in the first picture, and the base of the left all moving tail in the second picture.

Further confirming that "CB0370" is legit, and that they don't "mix and match" parts on the same aircraft. I.e. the CBabxy system is legit for tracking production
Click to expand...

You meant the second image in the quoted post, which is the 1st one posted below:
52496138490_cbbd481814_3k.jpg



FWIW, here's another construction number on the IFR probe door:
52495662836_cf0455a912_3k.jpg
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

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by78 said:
You meant the second image in the quoted post, which is the 1st one posted below:
52496138490_cbbd481814_3k.jpg



FWIW, here's another construction number on the IFR probe door:
52495662836_cf0455a912_3k.jpg
Click to expand...

Yes, writing a post on a phone makes it hard to spot all the quoted huge images and remove them lol.

The CBxyab numbers are now pretty much beyond reproach.
 
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zyun8288

Junior Member
Blitzo said:
I'm really not sure what you're saying -- first you said that J-10 production was lower than you expected, and now you're saying it is not unreasonable?

If J-10 production was not unreasonable compared to original expectations, then how does that relate to J-20 production expectations?


I agree that J-20's production estimates needs to be within reason -- but we are already at a point where our predictions for J-20 have been thrown out of whack.
Early this year, the consensus was that in 2022 that CAC might be able to produced 40 odd J-20s.
Now, it is more like this year they likely will able to produce 65-75 J-20s, with room still to grow in the next few years, perhaps to even reach the triple digit threshold

That is a huge expansion in expectations, and forces us to recalibrate what the future projections and predictions might be.
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Maybe I didn’t say it clear. J10’s lower number WAS not what I expected 15 years ago, but now it looks reasonable. It’s my original expectation that was unreasonable.
 
Blitzo

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Michaelsinodef said:
Are we gonna then see something like CB41XX or CB51XX when a batch is above 100?
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I think what makes more sense, is that a single batch will not be larger than "99" aircraft.

After all, if they build 100 or more aircraft in a single year, that doesn't have to be all in one batch. Instead, they can be in two successive batches (in fact, a single batch might be built in the tail end of one year leading into the first few months of the next year).

zyun8288 said:
Maybe I didn’t say it clear. J10’s lower number WAS not what I expected 15 years ago, but now it looks reasonable. It’s my original expectation that was unreasonable.
Click to expand...

It seems like that means your original estimate was unreasonable.

However, that doesn't mean the current estimates being made for J-20 at the moment with new information at hand, is unreasonable.
 
A

antiterror13

Brigadier
sequ said:
Another metric as to how many J-20 China needs until their 6th gen fighter is ready, is the amount of 5th gen fighters stationed in the region. China needs to match their numbers at least 1 to 1. Anything less is unacceptable.
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I would say 1.5 : 1 .. 50% more than 5th fighter station in western pacific. Remember that the USN could bring from other regions too, and also remember India even most likely Chinese J-10, J-11B and J-16 are more than a match for IAF
 
L

latenlazy

Brigadier
enroger said:
I think I observed something cool about the J-20 video in this video:
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You can see there is a very subtle jitter whenever J-20 starts to pull more AoA and vortex starts to form, and then very soon the motion smoothed out. My guess is that at the start of vortex formation there is a lot of turbulence that flight control fight a little to control, and then vortex flow stabilize and lift is dominated by vortex flow.

If true it is a testament of how much a "vortex fighter" J-20 is, it almost feels like the vortex is sucking the plane upwards...
Click to expand...
Eh. I suspect that’s actually from the camera sensor’s image stabilization function trying to shift the sensor around to reduce shaking…
 
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caohailiang

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antiterror13 said:
I would say 1.5 : 1 .. 50% more than 5th fighter station in western pacific. Remember that the USN could bring from other regions too, and also remember India even most likely Chinese J-10, J-11B and J-16 are more than a match for IAF
Click to expand...

i really think we are long beyond that point now. In fact at this moment, J20 is roughly equal to number of gen5 in INDOPACOM + JP + SK.

i think what PLAAF looking for is parity with USAF at 2030
 
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