As one of the world's premier European experts on Chinese military aviation - what do you think the 2022 production rate of the J-20 is?
Do you agree with the more optimistic takes being considered here?
J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
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Do you agree with the more optimistic takes being considered here?
To begin with, there are 2 major fighter class in the PLAAF: Heavyweight fighters (those in the 30-ton-ish weight range, i.e. J-11, J-16 & J-20), and mediumweight fighters (those in the 20-ton-ish weight range, i.e. J-10).
As @Blitzo had previously mentioned, the PLAAF has been heavily pivoted towards heavyweight fighters, especially with their growing procurement of the J-16s and J-20s in recent years. The possible reduction or stopping in J-10's production also seems to reinforce this viewpoint.
However, even for the global-reaching USAF, they also operate a sizeable force of mediumweight fighters, i.e. F-16s, despite them having large numbers of heavy-weight fighters in service across the air force as well, i.e. F-15s and F-22s. Had it not been the expensive price tags of the F-22, the USAF could have hundreds of F-22 in service right now instead of just 180. This is considering that the F-22s were meant to play the role of the F-15s as air superiority fighters, while the F-35s were meant to play the role of the F-16s as multi-role fighters.
In my opinion, this shows that even when the focus and scope of operations in the PLAAF have been gradually widened over the past 2 decade from local and national defense to regional power projection and strike capability, there is still the need for mediumweight fighters like the ones of the J-10 for territorial and regional defense roles, which is pretty similarly to those played by the F-16.
Which means, instead of sending mediumweight fighters like the J-10s out to combat enemy forces or conduct strikes in faraway oceans or enemy territories, they would operate closer to China and their home bases. Their main tasks would be to fight and defend against enemy forces that are intruding and attacking targets within China's home soil and PLA's theater of operations in times of war.
Recall that the chief designer of the SAC has mentioned that there would be 4 variants for the FC-31/J-31/J-35 fighter series. I think these 4 variants could be J-35 single-seater, J-35 twin-seater, J-31 single-seater and J-31 twin-seater.
The J-35 variants would be exclusive for PLAN use (since there isn't any navy anywhere that aims to operate carriers on a large scale like the US and China), while the J-31 variants would be for land-based use.
Therefore, I believe that the PLA would introduce J-31s into active PLAAF service, supplementing and gradually replacing the J-10s starting from the 2030s and 2040s, and eventually become the mainstay mediumweight fighters of the PLAAF. Furthermore, since SAC is aiming the FC-31 for export, having the J-31 in service with the PLAAF would definitely be beneficial for promoting the FC-31 to their foreign customers.
Meanwhile, regarding the possible slowdown or stopping of J-10 production, I believe there are 3 possible explantions:
1. The PLAAF is feeling confident enough regarding the number of J-10s in active PLAAF serivce that they don't need anymore new J-10s;
2. The PLAAF is waiting for the possible J-10D to be ready before resuming production; or
3. The possible transfer of the J-10 production line from CAC to GAC has not been completed yet, and that the need for higher J-20 production rates has eaten into the production line that were originally meant for J-10s.
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As one of the world's premier European experts on Chinese military aviation - what do you think the 2022 production rate of the J-20 is?
Do you agree with the more optimistic takes being considered here?
With the more optimistic yes and indeed I needed to correct my previous estimates dramatically, but an annual rate of 75 or more as claimed is IMO unlikely, maybe 60, at best 70 yes, but not more.
IN fact I had some very busy weeks back since mid-October and so I'm actually a bit behind with my homeworks.
Is this number for what is produced since January 2022 (i.e. over around 10 months) or since -365 days ago?
The question he is answering is "what do you think the 2022 production rate of the J-20 is?"
I.e.: how many J-20s will be built in the year of 2022 -- i.e.: January 2022 to January 2023
Additionally, I think it's also important for us to note, that batch production is NOT necessarily the same as airframes produced in one year. After all, a batch can be produced in the tail end of one year through to the beginning of the subsequent year.
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For what its worth, about 60-70 in 2022 seems the right ballpark from my view as well.
Maybe even 65-75, from what I've heard some others say.
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