So, the question of J-20 cost has somehow come up again. Let's explain again why F-22's costs were so high and why J-20's costs aren't like to be in the same ballpark:
- F-22 was developed with the most advanced AESA radar at that time (far more advanced than any other radar in the world). As such, it was done before AESA and T/R module costs have come down. So, it's radar/electronics are likely to be a lot more than J-20 which is using a more recent version of a more mature technology.
- F-22's engine F-119 was also cutting edge and revolutionary at the time. It was never produced in large numbers, so the costs were likely very high. That's not the case with WS-10C with J-20. WS-10C costs are likely several folds lower.
- F-22 never reached high production rate. I think the highest it reached was about 20 a year. I'm thinking J-20 will hit run-rate of about 50 a year this year and go even higher in the future.
- F-22 was designed with VLO in mind. It had higher requirements for rear and side stealth than both J-20 and F-35. Therefore, it's design (for example the exhaust) is far more complicated than other fighter jet. As such, there is higher cost involved.
- F-22 was developed at a time when stealth layer/material was not as mature as now. Therefore, the production and maintenance costs are higher than what one would've expected out of more mature stealth layer technology
Even with all of these constraints, F-22 flyaway costs had dropped to $137 million per unit when the production level was more consistent for the final 60 units. With everything included in combat condition, it was probably around $180 million. In comparison, F-35A flyaway unit cost was $78 million and full cost was probably $110 million
Considering that F-35 production level was likely 7 to 8 times that of F-22s. The higher production rate alone should have brought down production costs by 35 to 40%. If we applied a 35% cost reduction on F-22, it would be not that much more expensive than F-35.
Therefore, as we apply similar reductions to J-20 with the benefits of higher production rate, lower engine costs and electronics/material costs, it'd be very hard for me to see J-20 cost not being far lower than F-22's costs. The higher production rate allows CAC to get big discounts from suppliers and buy new machineries to increase automation and reduce labour costs. This same rule applies to the rest of the supply chain. As time goes on, production quality will keep going up and cost in today's money will keep going down. We know that J-10 was sold to Pakistan for about $50 million a unit. The cost for PLAAF would probably be a little lower at $45 million each. It'd be hard for me to think that a fully ramped up J-20 production line to be producing at higher than $80 million each. That would be lower than F-35A. Keep in mind that while F-35A is single engined, it's a very large single engined aircraft. With China's lower cost, $80 million per J-20 is probably quite a reasonable estimation.
