J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[ENTED64]

You raise an important point, and as my previous speakers have already written, we haven't known anything since Zhuhai either!

It's true, we haven't known a more recent construction numbers since CB07156 posted in January 2023. Confirmed serial numbers are rare. Just to remind you, the 4th AB has been flying the J-20 since 2023, and only after Zhuhai 2024 were there clear photos leaked.
There are no photos at all of the 55th and 41st AB, nor of the unit that, at least to me, was recently converted unit, the 19th AB (although there is a photo of a J-20 next to several J-11Bs).
Furthermore, the 131st has been rumored for a long time, but still no facts are known, and I haven't heard of any other new units (except perhaps the 2nd AB).

I actually almost have the impression - but as I said, just my impression or gut feeling - that not as many units were newly formed in 2024 as in 2023, perhaps actually an indication that production is being switched to the J-20A.

Interesting and and unfortunate that OPSEC is getting so tight confirmed info is well behind developments on the ground now and we're mostly reduced to educated guesswork, hearsay, and rumor. I guess this is why we get publications like Janes and Military Balance listing much lower numbers for J-20 as it's difficult to refute them with official statements or more concrete things like photos.

 

[Deino]

Since I'm already at school ... does anyone have a list at hand, when the individual units were mentioned for the first time and when they were confirmed or even more what are the yet rumoured bust still unconfirmed units?

 

[by78]

One more nice image doesn't hurt.

 

[Deino]

Since I'm already at school ... does anyone have a list at hand, when the individual units were mentioned for the first time and when they were confirmed or even more what are the yet rumoured bust still unconfirmed units?

Just a rough list based on what Scramble lists and when a certain aircraft was seen within a certain base first:

2016: 176th AB
2017: -
2018: 172nd AB
2019: 9th AB
------- transition to WS-10C powered J-20 (II)
2020: 1st AB
2021: 172nd AB + maybe 176th AB
2022: 5th AB, 56th AB, 111th AB, 8th AB
2023: 55th (still unconfirmed), 4th AB, 41st AB, 97th AB + 131st AB (rumours only)
2024: 54th AB (more likely J-16), 19th AB, 2nd AB (rumours only)

bolt text = confirmed by serial number and/or several J-20s seen at that base
bolt italics = unconfirmed but highly likely
bolt italics = unconfirmed and questionable but likely a serial number seen
red = rumours only

Any correction appreciated!

 

[AndrewS]

Just a rough list based on what Scramble lists and when a certain aircraft was seen within a certain base first:

2016: 176th AB
2017: -
2018: 172nd AB
2019: 9th AB
------- transition to WS-10C powered J-20 (II)
2020: 1st AB
2021: 172nd AB + maybe 176th AB
2022: 5th AB, 56th AB, 111th AB, 8th AB
2023: 55th (still unconfirmed), 4th AB, 41st AB, 97th AB + 131st AB (rumours only)
2024: 54th AB (more likely J-16), 19th AB, 2nd AB (rumours only)

bolt text = confirmed by serial number and/or several J-20s seen at that base
bolt italics = unconfirmed but highly likely
bolt italics = unconfirmed and questionable but likely a serial number seen
red = rumours only

Any correction appreciated!

So that's about 17 Brigades? Given 20-28 aircraft per Brigade, that sounds about right

Remember that initially, you get the most combat power by having 10-12 aircraft as "silver bullets" distributed across different locations.

Then as more J-20 become available, the entire Brigade converts. It also means text Bridge still retains combat power from the existing aircraft during the conversion process.

 

[antiterror13]

So that's about 17 Brigades? Given 20-28 aircraft per Brigade, that sounds about right

Remember that initially, you get the most combat power by having 10-12 aircraft as "silver bullets" distributed across different locations.

Then as more J-20 become available, the entire Brigade converts. It also means text Bridge still retains combat power from the existing aircraft during the conversion process.

so over 350 J-20s currently? your opinion ?

 

[AndrewJ]

Just a rough list based on what Scramble lists and when a certain aircraft was seen within a certain base first:

2016: 176th AB
2017: -
2018: 172nd AB
2019: 9th AB
------- transition to WS-10C powered J-20 (II)
2020: 1st AB
2021: 172nd AB + maybe 176th AB
2022: 5th AB, 56th AB, 111th AB, 8th AB
2023: 55th (still unconfirmed), 4th AB, 41st AB, 97th AB + 131st AB (rumours only)
2024: 54th AB (more likely J-16), 19th AB, 2nd AB (rumours only)

bolt text = confirmed by serial number and/or several J-20s seen at that base
bolt italics = unconfirmed but highly likely
bolt italics = unconfirmed and questionable but likely a serial number seen
red = rumours only

Any correction appreciated!

Is that possible to identity whether those rumored AB is equipped with J-20(A) one by one via satellite imagery? Such as Maxar, Planet Labs, Google Earth...

 

[siegecrossbow]

Just a rough list based on what Scramble lists and when a certain aircraft was seen within a certain base first:

2016: 176th AB
2017: -
2018: 172nd AB
2019: 9th AB
------- transition to WS-10C powered J-20 (II)
2020: 1st AB
2021: 172nd AB + maybe 176th AB
2022: 5th AB, 56th AB, 111th AB, 8th AB
2023: 55th (still unconfirmed), 4th AB, 41st AB, 97th AB + 131st AB (rumours only)
2024: 54th AB (more likely J-16), 19th AB, 2nd AB (rumours only)

bolt text = confirmed by serial number and/or several J-20s seen at that base
bolt italics = unconfirmed but highly likely
bolt italics = unconfirmed and questionable but likely a serial number seen
red = rumours only

Any correction appreciated!

From what I’ve heard 9th is skipping WS-10C and going straight to J-20A.

 

[AndrewS]

so over 350 J-20s currently? your opinion ?

Maybe? It's difficult to say.

But when you have 17 operating locations for J-20s, that should be able to cover all geographies.
So there isn't much point in increasing the number of locations (Brigades) and there should be enough redundancy.

They might as well increase the number of J-20 in each location, to benefit from operating efficiencies.

If each Brigade is 20-28 aircraft, then they'll need at least 340-476 before adding additional Brigades.