J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[Deino]

Just a rough list based on what Scramble lists and when a certain aircraft was seen within a certain base first:

2016: 176th AB
2017: -
2018: 172nd AB
2019: 9th AB
------- transition to WS-10C powered J-20 (II)
2020: 1st AB
2021: 172nd AB + maybe 176th AB
2022: 5th AB, 56th AB, 111th AB, 8th AB
2023: 55th (still unconfirmed), 4th AB, 41st AB, 97th AB + 131st AB (rumours only)
2024: 54th AB (more likely J-16), 19th AB, 2nd AB (rumours only)

bolt text = confirmed by serial number and/or several J-20s seen at that base
bolt italics = unconfirmed but highly likely
bolt italics = unconfirmed and questionable but likely a serial number seen
red = rumours only

Any correction appreciated!

Me again and what I find amazing/surprising ... if these numbers are at least half-way correct (at least we usually get a rough hint, when a new unit converted even if the true number is unknown) it seems as if production slowed down!?? ... Maybe a hint, they are converting the lines to the J-20A?

 

[Totoro]

Too many unknowns.
Certainly, it doesn't make sense to quickly ramp up production volume only to quickly lower it. It's simply not cost efficient.

From 2020 we thus had, if we disregard pure rumors:
1 unit getting the type in 2020
2 in 2021
4 in 2022
4 in 2023
1 or 2 known/suspected so far in 2024

Is it possible that the opsec is so tightened that we simply don't get fresh info as often as before? That's very possible. Even likely.

Is it possible that it simply takes time until units get all their j20 planes? Like even 2 years to get them? Quite possible. We saw that many J20 bases feature 36 newly built shelters. If that translates to 36 planes per unit, then some unit might indeed take a long time to get all their planes. So it's possible that 2022 and 2023 saw many units START converting to j20, but as it's a long process, the conversion process for many is ending only in 2024. Maybe PLAAF decided it doesn't want to start any new, additional j20 unit conversions until most of the existing units, under conversion, have finished said conversion.

Indeed, if we have like 13 to 14 j20 units, and if most are to receive 36 planes, then the overall total produced would reach over 400, perhaps over 450 planes. As far as I know, we're still not even close to 400 produced. So it might make sense that the old units are first being populated with many planes, before any new units are established.

 

[Blitzo]

As far as I know, we're still not even close to 400 produced.

How do we know that though, considering we don't have any regular up to date images of CAC or up to date images of units?

I mean, by end of 2023 the estimate was something approaching 300 J-20s produced, so if they maintained a 100/year rate for 2024 as well, then getting to 400 by early 2025 is rather feasible and they might have exceeded 400 by now.


A better question is to ask, if there are some 400+ J-20s that exist at the moment, would they be able to hide it?

 

[Deino]

Well, possible but IMO unlikely and I would suggest another explanation ... we saw indeed a dramatic ramp-up of production in 2022 & 2023 and now at least per OSINT reports have a decreasing number of new units and even rumours (to almost half the number in 2023). So yes, that could be related to better OPSEC, but also be a hint of the conversion of the production lines (maybe 2 of the alleged 4 pulsed lines) to the J-20A?

And still my main argument against these high numbers: Where are they all? Surely a few can be hidden, but usually the CHinese spotter community is quite well connected and we get usually quite a good hint of "there's something in the making"! So to hide almost 100 or even more delivered J-20 is IMO almost impossible!

By the way, I don't remember any current operational base expanding to 36 shelters?!! Most (Anshan, Wuhu, Foshan ...) have all 24 only, at best 28!

 

[Totoro]

I thought end of 2024 number was around 350, given when the 150th plane serial was observed, when the F22 total was noted as surpassed and when the near 100 and over 100 milestones were rumored. But that's less important.

Even if it was around 400, there is still some room to populate existing units with up to 36 planes, before the need to start establishing new units.

My hunch, though, is that ever-increasing opsec is the biggest reason why we are getting so little info and belated info.

 

[AndrewS]

I thought end of 2024 number was around 350, given when the 150th plane serial was observed, when the F22 total was noted as surpassed and when the near 100 and over 100 milestones were rumored. But that's less important.

Even if it was around 400, there is still some room to populate existing units with up to 36 planes, before the need to start establishing new units.

My hunch, though, is that ever-increasing opsec is the biggest reason why we are getting so little info and belated info.

Given current production rates, we can also expect to see more airbases to start hosting 2 Brigades of fighter aircraft.

 

[Deino]

Given current production rates, we can also expect to see more airbases to start hosting 2 Brigades of fighter aircraft.

In fact an option indeed, but instead of just posting this since maybe Suixi is the first such base, plaese name others!!

My point is, too many fan-boys & enthusiasts are just looking for a single reason or explanation it could that way and after they got one, they are happy with it and post is as a conclusion!

IMO it's never that's simple.

 

[Totoro]

By the way, I don't remember any current operational base expanding to 36 shelters?!! Most (Anshan, Wuhu, Foshan ...) have all 24 only, at best 28!

I simply went base by base on Google Earth, using Scramble's list and coordinates.

Counted the following number of shelters for these units:

9th brigade - 26 shelters (of which some hardened)
1st - 24
5th - 36
55th - 36
56th - 36
111th - 36
8th 36 (of which 8 hardened)
4th - 27
41st - 10 (plus some old ones too small for j20. But whole base has only old images)
97th - 36
19th - 32

 

[Deino]

Thanks ... that surprises me not only a bit!

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

I simply went base by base on Google Earth, using Scramble's list and coordinates.

Counted the following number of shelters for these units:

9th brigade - 26 shelters (of which some hardened)
1st - 24
5th - 36
55th - 36
56th - 36
111th - 36
8th 36 (of which 8 hardened)
4th - 27
41st - 10 (plus some old ones too small for j20. But whole base has only old images)
97th - 36
19th - 32

Assuming that all of them field J-20/A/Ss only, that would mean a maximum of 335 units.

And if all of them have 36 shelters for J-20/A/Ss, that would mean a maximum of 396 units.